Federal politics – voting intention

May 6, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,840 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

8/4/13

2 weeks ago

22/4/13

Last week

29/4/13

This week

6/5/13

Liberal

47%

44%

45%

44%

National

2%

3%

3%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

32%

34%

34%

33%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

10%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

55%

55%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

45%

45%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Australia’s national debt

May 6, 2013

Q. Compared to other developed countries, do you think Australia’s national debt is higher, lower or about the same?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total higher

25%

17%

33%

19%

Total lower

48%

58%

39%

57%

A lot higher

9%

4%

13%

3%

A little higher

16%

13%

20%

16%

About the same

18%

16%

19%

18%

A little lower

29%

27%

28%

27%

A lot lower

19%

31%

11%

30%

Don’t know

10%

9%

8%

6%

25% think that Australia’s National debt is higher than other developed countries and 48% think it is lower – 18% think it about the same.

A majority of Labor (58%) and Greens voters (57%) think our debt is lower than other countries while Liberal National voters were split – 39% think it is lower and 33% think it is higher.

There were no substantial differences by demographics.

Reason for Australia’s national debt

May 6, 2013

Q. What do you think is the main reason for Australia’s national debt?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The world economy

26%

44%

10%

49%

The high Australian dollar

17%

31%

9%

19%

Government are poor economic managers

46%

12%

76%

19%

Don’t know

11%

14%

5%

14%

46% think the main reason for Australia’s national debt is that the Government are poor economic managers. 26% think it is due to the world economy and 17% blame the high Australian dollar.

Labor (44%) and Greens (49%) voters are more likely to blame the world economy, while 76% of Liberal/National voters say it is because the Government are poor economic managers.

Importance of reducing debt

May 6, 2013

Q. Do you think it is more important to reduce Australia’s national debt or to maintain government spending on services and projects?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Australia’s debt higher

Australia’s debt about the same

Australia’s debt lower

More important to reduce debt

46%

26%

67%

31%

63%

49%

37%

More important to maintain spending

40%

61%

23%

59%

28%

33%

51%

Don’t know

14%

14%

10%

11%

9%

18%

12%

46% think it is more important to reduce Australia’s debt and 40% think it is more important to maintain Government spending on services and projects.

61% of Labor voters and 59% of Greens voters favour maintaining spending while 67% of Liberal/national voters think it is more important to reduce debt.

63% of those who think Australia’s debt is high compared to other countries think we should reduce debt while 51% of those who think our debt is low think we should maintain spending.

Raise taxes or cut spending

May 6, 2013

Q. Do you think the Government should raise taxes or cut spending to reduce the national debt or should they do neither?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Raise taxes

13%

23%

5%

28%

Reduce spending

55%

34%

74%

40%

Neither

20%

27%

14%

20%

Don’t know

12%

16%

7%

12%

In order to reduce debt, 55% think the Government should reduce spending and only 13% think they should raise taxes. 20% think they should do neither.

74% of Liberal/National voters think the Government should reduce spending compared to 40% of Greens voters and 34% of Labor voters.

Paying tax

May 6, 2013

Q. Do you think the following pay too much tax, not enough tax or about the right amount?

 

Total

Labor voters

Lib/Nat voters

 

Pay too much

Don’t pay eno
-ugh

Pay about right
amnt.

Don’t know

Pay too much

Don’t pay eno
-ugh

Pay about right

Don’t know

Pay too much

Don’t pay eno
-ugh

Pay about right
amnt.

Don’t know

Large
bus.

7%

63%

17%

13%

4%

75%

12%

9%

9%

52%

25%

14%

Small
bus.

43%

7%

37%

14%

37%

8%

43%

11%

49%

5%

34%

11%

People on
low incomes

41%

8%

41%

10%

49%

3%

41%

7%

33%

11%

46%

10%

People on average
incomes

37%

7%

49%

8%

32%

8%

54%

6%

38%

6%

50%

6%

People on
high incomes

12%

60%

19%

8%

5%

77%

13%

6%

18%

47%

27%

7%

Mining
co.

7%

62%

16%

15%

4%

78%

8%

11%

11%

49%

24%

16%

A majority think that large businesses (63%), mining companies (62%) and people on high incomes do not pay enough tax.

They are more likely to think that small businesses pay too much tax (43%) and that people on average incomes pay about the right amount (49%).

They were split over whether people on low incomes pay too much or about the right amount.

At least three quarters of Labor voters think mining companies, people on upper incomes and big businesses do not pay enough tax.

Government’s management of economy

May 6, 2013

Q. How would you rate the government’s management of the Australian economy compared to how governments in other countries around the world have managed their economies?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

39%

71%

14%

62%

Total poor

32%

4%

58%

10%

Very good

11%

26%

1%

18%

Good

28%

45%

13%

44%

Neither good nor poor

24%

21%

24%

22%

Poor

17%

4%

31%

6%

Very poor

15%

*

27%

4%

Don’t know

5%

3%

3%

6%

39% think that government’s management of the Australian economy compared to how governments in other countries around the world have managed their economies has been good/very good and 32% think it has been poor/very poor.

Trust to handle economy

May 6, 2013

Q. Who would you trust most to handle Australia’s economy – The Treasurer Wayne Swan or the Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Wayne Swan

32%

70%

9%

48%

Joe Hockey

35%

4%

67%

17%

Don’t know

32%

26%

25%

36%

32% trust Wayne Swan more to handle Australia’s economy and 35% trust Joe Hockey more. Men favour Joe Hockey 41%/34% while women are evenly split – 31% Wayne Swan and 30% Joe Hockey.

Those on incomes under $1,000pw favour Wayne Swan 34%/31% while those earning over $1,000pw favour Joe Hockey 37%/32%.

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