Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 7, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,863 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

8/10/12

2 weeks ago

22/10/12

Last week

29/10/12

This week

7/11/12

Liberal

44%

44%

44%

43%

National

3%

3%

4%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

47%

48%

46%

Labor

38.0%

37%

36%

36%

37%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

7%

7%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

53%

53%

54%

53%

Labor

50.1%

47%

47%

46%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Approval of Christine Milne

Nov 7, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Christine Milne is doing as leader of the Greens?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

20%

28%

10%

71%

Total disapprove

33%

24%

49%

5%

Strongly approve

2%

3%

1%

8%

Approve

18%

25%

9%

63%

Disapprove

18%

18%

22%

5%

Strongly disapprove

15%

6%

27%

Don’t know

47%

48%

42%

24%

20% approve of the job Christine Milne is doing as leader of the Greens and 33% disapprove – nearly half could not give an opinion.

Among Greens voters 71% approve and 5% disapprove. 27% of respondents aged under 35 approve compared to 17% of those aged 55+.

Performance of the Greens

Nov 7, 2012

Q. Do you think the performance of the Greens in Federal Parliament has been good or poor?

 

16 Jul 12

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

17%

16%

22%

6%

65%

Total poor

47%

40%

27%

61%

5%

Very good

3%

3%

3%

*

20%

Good

14%

13%

19%

6%

45%

Neither good nor poor

27%

25%

32%

20%

23%

Poor

19%

18%

17%

24%

5%

Very poor

28%

22%

10%

37%

Don’t know

10%

19%

20%

12%

6%

16% think the performance of The Greens in Federal Parliament has been good or very good and 40% think it has been poor or very poor. This is a drop of 7% in the percentage thinking the Greens have been poor since July when this question was last asked. Those who don’t know have increased from 10% to 19%.

Labor voters tend to think The Greens’ performance has been poor/very poor  (27%) or neither good nor poor (32%) – and only 22% think it has been good/very good. 61% of Liberal/National voters think it has been poor/very poor and 65% of Greens voters think it has been good/very good.

Among respondents aged under 35, 24% think The Greens’ performance has been good/very good and 24% think it has been poor/very poor.

Greens policies

Nov 7, 2012

Q. Do you think that The Greens’ policies are too extreme or do they represent the views of many voters?

 

16 Jul 12

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Too extreme

53%

47%

38%

69%

7%

Represent the views of many voters

26%

25%

33%

12%

81%

Don’t know

21%

28%

29%

20%

12%

47% think The Greens’ policies are too extreme and 25% think they represent the views of many voters. Since this question was last asked in July, the percentage thinking they are extreme has dropped 6% while “don’t know” has increased from 21% to 28%.

Those most likely to think The Greens’ policies are too extreme were men (55%), aged 55+ (66%) and Liberal/National voters (69%).

30% of respondents aged under 35 think they represent the views of many voters and 33% think they are too extreme.

The Asian Century

Nov 7, 2012

Q. The Government recently released a report about the Asian Century and the opportunities for Australia as part of the region. Do you agree or disagree that Australia’s economic future depends on our engagement and relationships with Asian countries?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total agree

65%

73%

66%

74%

Total disagree

16%

12%

20%

16%

Strongly agree

16%

25%

11%

24%

Agree

49%

48%

55%

50%

Disagree

10%

9%

12%

11%

Strongly disagree

6%

3%

8%

5%

Don’t know

18%

15%

14%

10%

65% agree that Australia’s economic future depends on our engagement and relationships with Asian countries and 16% disagree.  At least two thirds of each voter group agreed.

There was similar agreement across all age groups. Highest disagreement was shown by those aged 55+ (22%) and Liberal/National voters (20%).

Increasing connections with Asian countries

Nov 7, 2012

Q. Do you agree or disagree that increasing our diplomatic and business connections with Asian countries should be a major priority for Australia?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total agree

62%

72%

60%

67%

Total disagree

22%

15%

29%

19%

Strongly agree

13%

20%

8%

22%

Agree

49%

52%

52%

45%

Disagree

16%

12%

21%

12%

Strongly disagree

6%

3%

8%

7%

Don’t know

16%

14%

11%

14%

62% agree that Australia’s increasing our diplomatic and business connections with Asian countries should be a major priority for Australia and 22% disagree.

There was similar agreement across all age groups. Highest disagreement was shown by those aged 55+ (27%) and Liberal/National voters (29%).

Learning Asian languages

Nov 7, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of making it a priority for Australian students to learn Asian languages?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

50%

57%

46%

64%

Total disapprove

38%

29%

46%

26%

Strongly approve

9%

14%

5%

18%

Approve

41%

43%

41%

46%

Disapprove

22%

18%

25%

10%

Strongly disapprove

16%

11%

21%

16%

Don’t know

13%

15%

8%

10%

50% approve of making it a priority for Australian students to learn Asian languages and 38% disapprove. A majority of Labor voters and Greens voters approve but Liberal/National voters are split with 46% approve and 46% disapprove.

There were no major differences across age groups. 57% of full-time workers approve and 33% dispapprove.

Uranium exploration and mining

Nov 7, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of expanding uranium exploration and mining in Australia?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

41%

36%

54%

27%

Total disapprove

41%

47%

28%

64%

Strongly approve

8%

7%

11%

9%

Approve

33%

29%

43%

18%

Disapprove

23%

30%

15%

26%

Strongly disapprove

18%

17%

13%

38%

Don’t know

19%

17%

18%

9%

Respondents were evenly divided over expanding uranium exploration and mining in Australia – 41% approve and 41% disapprove.

Labor voters and Greens voters were more likely to disapprove while more than half (54%) Liberal/National voters approve.

Men split 56% approve/30% disapprove compared to women 24% approve/50% disapprove.

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