Federal politics – voting intention

Apr 8, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,896 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

11/3/13

2 weeks ago

25/2/13

Last week

2/4/13

This week

8/4/13

Liberal

45%

45%

47%

47%

National

3%

2%

2%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

47%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

34%

33%

31%

32%

Greens

11.8%

9%

11%

11%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

54%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

45%

46%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

State of the economy

Apr 8, 2013

Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?

 

28 May 12

Total

8 Apr 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

35%

45%

63%

33%

63%

Total poor

29%

26%

13%

37%

10%

Very good

6%

8%

18%

3%

9%

Good

29%

37%

45%

30%

54%

Neither good nor poor

33%

28%

23%

30%

27%

Poor

20%

17%

10%

24%

7%

Very poor

9%

9%

3%

13%

3%

Don’t know

2%

2%

1%

*

1%

45% described the economy as good or very good and 26% poor/very poor – 28% said it was neither. This represents a net improvement from +6 to +19 since May last year.

Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were people with incomes $1,000-$1,600pw (52%).

Those most likely to think the economy was poor/very poor were aged 55+ (33%) and people with incomes under $600pw (35%).

Reasons economy is poor

Apr 8, 2013

Q. What is the main reason you don’t think the state of the economy is good? *

 

28 May 12

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Poor economic management by Government

27%

40%

17%

52%

Increasing cost of living

34%

27%

41%

22%

Businesses are struggling

13%

11%

7%

13%

Increasing gap between rich and poor

9%

7%

15%

3%

Incomes aren’t increasing fast enough to keep up

7%

6%

7%

5%

Global financial problems

7%

5%

7%

4%

Other reason

2%

3%

6%

2%

Don’t know

1%

1%

* Based on those who disagree that economy is good.

Those who disagreed that the economy was good said the main reasons were poor economic management by Government (40%) and the increasing cost of living (27%). Those who blame poor economic management by the Government has increased 13% and cost of living has decreased 7% since May last year.

62% of respondents aged 55+ blamed poor economic management by Government while the increasing cost of living was the major factor for 41% of respondents aged 25-44.

Reasons Government is unpopular

Apr 8, 2013

Q. Although Australia’s economy is doing very well, according to opinion polls the Government is very unpopular. What do you think is the main reason for this? *

 

28 May 12

Total

8 Apr 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Voters don’t trust the Prime Minister

28%

27%

19%

35%

31%

The Labor Party is divided and can’t govern properly

na

19%

15%

23%

23%

The economy is doing well for other reasons, like China and the mining boom, not because of the government

15%

13%

9%

19%

11%

Voters would prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister

na

9%

14%

4%

7%

Voters aren’t benefitting from the strong economy.

12%

9%

10%

5%

12%

The carbon tax has increased (will increase) the cost of living

17%

7%

6%

9%

Some other reason

8%

12%

21%

3%

12%

Don’t know

3%

5%

7%

2%

5%

* Based on those who agree the economy is good.

Respondents who thought the economy was doing well, thought the main reasons for the Government’s unpopularity were that voters don’t trust the Prime Minister (27%) and the Labor Party is divided and can’t govern properly (19%).

Both Liberal/National and Greens voters said trust in the Prime Minister was the key issue.

Since May last year, those blaming the impact of the carbon tax has declined from 17% to 7%.

Household financial situation

Apr 8, 2013

Q. How would you describe the current financial situation of your household?

 

28 May 12

Total

8 Apr 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total satisfactory

43%

56%

57%

58%

57%

Total unsatisfactory

28%

26%

28%

22%

29%

Very satisfactory

7%

8%

8%

8%

6%

Satisfactory

36%

48%

49%

50%

51%

Neither satisfactory nor unsatisfactory

28%

18%

15%

19%

12%

Unsatisfactory

18%

20%

22%

17%

21%

Very unsatisfactory

10%

6%

6%

5%

8%

Don’t know

1%

1%

1%

*

1%

56% (up 13% since May last year) consider their current household financial situation to be satisfactory and 26% say it is unsatisfactory. 18% said it was neither.

Those most likely to be satisfied were those on incomes over $1,600pw (69%).

Those most likely to be dissatisfied were on incomes under $1,000pw (40%).

Major spending in last 12 months

Apr 8, 2013

Q. In the last 12 months have you –

 

28 May 12

Total

8 Apr 13

Vote ALP

Vote Lib

Vote Greens

Financial situation satisfactory

Neither satisfactory nor un-
satisfactory

Financial situation un-
satisfactory

Bought a house or other property

10%

10%

11%

11%

11%

13%

7%

5%

Bought a new car

12%

12%

10%

15%

12%

17%

10%

5%

Bought a used car

17%

13%

14%

13%

12%

14%

11%

13%

Renovated your current home

17%

16%

17%

16%

18%

22%

13%

6%

Purchased a major household item (stove, TV, Fridge, furniture etc.)

39%

40%

42%

41%

49%

47%

36%

30%

Taken an overseas holiday

30%

34%

29%

35%

39%

44%

24%

21%

Taken an Australian holiday

45%

46%

41%

49%

52%

56%

39%

28%

Paid private school fees

12%

11%

9%

15%

6%

11%

14%

12%

Bought shares

13%

12%

10%

14%

16%

17%

8%

3%

The most common major spending items over the last 12 months were holidays in Australia (46%), purchase of major household item (40%) and overseas holidays (34%). Spending results were similar to those recorded last May.

Spending rate of those who consider their financial situation unsatisfactory was about half that of those who were satisfied for most items. Whereas taking an Australian holidays was the most common item of major spending for those satisfied (56%) and the neither group (39%), those who were dissatisfied were more likely to have purchased a major household item (30%).

Tax on superannuation

Apr 8, 2013

Q. Would you approve or disapprove of increasing the tax rates on superannuation contributions and earnings for people on very high incomes?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Income less than $600pw

Income $600
-1,000pw

Income $1,000
-$1,600pw

Income $1,600+

Total approve

55%

73%

38%

83%

56%

63%

61%

52%

Total disapprove

35%

17%

55%

15%

32%

27%

32%

42%

Strongly approve

23%

37%

11%

40%

28%

27%

27%

18%

Approve

32%

36%

27%

43%

28%

36%

34%

34%

Disapprove

20%

11%

28%

13%

18%

16%

20%

21%

Strongly disapprove

15%

6%

27%

2%

14%

11%

12%

21%

Don’t know

10%

10%

7%

3%

12%

10%

7%

6%

55% approve of increasing the tax rates on superannuation contributions and earnings for people on very high incomes and 35% disapprove.

There was majority approval across all income groups – although those on $1,600+ pw showed the highest level of disapproval (42%).

There were no significant differences across age groups.

Value of superannuation

Apr 8, 2013

Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

 

Total

Vote ALP

Vote Lib

Vote Greens

Men

Women

Aged 18-34

Aged 35-54

Aged 55+

Contributing to superannuation is the best way to prepare for retirement

51%

53%

49%

63%

53%

49%

46%

48%

62%

There are better ways to prepare for retirement such as investing and buying property

34%

34%

37%

24%

35%

33%

38%

37%

23%

Don’t know

15%

13%

14%

13%

12%

18%

16%

15%

15%

 

51% agreed that contributing to superannuation is the best way to prepare for retirement and 34% agreed that there are better ways to prepare for retirement.

Highest support for contributing to super came from Greens voters (63%), aged 55+ (62%) and incomes $1,000-1,600 pw (59%).

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