Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 8, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,778 respondent

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

11/6/13

2 weeks ago

24/6/13

Last week

1/7/13

This week

8/7/13

Liberal

 

44%

44%

43%

42%

National

3%

3%

3%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

47%

46%

46%

Labor

38.0%

36%

34%

36%

38%

Greens

11.8%

8%

8%

9%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

11%

9%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

11/6/13

2 weeks ago

24/6/13

Last week

1/7/13

This week

8/7/13

Liberal National

49.9%

54%

55%

53%

52%

Labor

50.1%

46%

45%

47%

48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Leader attributes – Kevin Rudd

Jul 8, 2013

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd?

 

Julia Gillard

23 Jun 13

 

Kevin Rudd

8 Jul 13

Change

Intelligent

69%

77%

+8

Hard-working

71%

70%

-1

A capable leader

44%

58%

+14

Understands the problems facing Australia

42%

57%

+15

Good in a crisis

41%

53%

+12

Arrogant

48%

49%

+1

Erratic

47%

45%

-2

Superficial

49%

44%

-5

Aggressive

45%

43%

-2

Visionary

32%

43%

+11

Trustworthy

30%

42%

+12

More honest than most politicians

30%

41%

+11

Out of touch with ordinary people

57%

39%

-18

Intolerant

39%

37%

-2

Narrow-minded

46%

34%

-12

Kevin Rudd’s key attributes were intelligent (77%), hard-working (70%), a capable leader (58%), understands the problems facing Australia (57%) and good in a crisis (53%).

He was rated substantially higher than Julia Gillard in terms of understanding the problems facing Australia (+15%), a capable leader (+14%), good in a crisis (+12%) and trustworthy (+12%) and substantially lower on being out of touch with ordinary people (-18%).

Leader attributes – Tony Abbott

Jul 8, 2013

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?

 

5 Jul 10

27 Jun 11

2 Apr 12

14 jan 13

2 Apr 13

23 Jun 13

 

8 Jul 13

Change

Hard-working

76%

75%

68%

70%

70%

68%

65%

-3

Intelligent

70%

61%

56%

64%

63%

62%

60%

-2

Narrow-minded

56%

54%

54%

56%

53%

55%

55%

Arrogant

59%

60%

61%

61%

56%

59%

54%

-5

Out of touch with ordinary people

57%

57%

54%

54%

52%

52%

50%

-2

Aggressive

55%

49%

51%

50%

-1

Superficial

49%

49%

48%

49%

49%

47%

-2

Intolerant

49%

48%

48%

46%

-2

Erratic

51%

45%

47%

45%

-2

Understands the problems facing Australia

50%

48%

49%

47%

49%

44%

45%

+1

A capable leader

47%

45%

41%

43%

47%

44%

42%

-2

Good in a crisis

40%

40%

36%

39%

44%

38%

38%

Trustworthy

33%

32%

32%

33%

36%

31%

32%

+1

More honest than most politicians

33%

32%

30%

29%

36%

29%

30%

+1

Visionary

32%

27%

26%

28%

37%

30%

26%

-4

Tony Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (65%), intelligent (60%), narrow-minded (55%), arrogant (54%), out of touch with ordinary people (50%) and aggressive (50%).

Since last month the largest shifts have been for arrogant (-5%) and visionary (-4%).

Labor Party more or less united

Jul 8, 2013

Q. Do you think that following the election of Kevin Rudd as leader, the Labor Party will be more united, less united or will it make no difference?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total more united

49%

75%

33%

56%

Total less united

14%

5%

21%

10%

Much more united

17%

33%

9%

10%

A little more united

32%

42%

24%

46%

A little less united

7%

4%

10%

4%

Much less united

7%

1%

11%

6%

Make no difference

27%

11%

40%

28%

Don’t know

10%

7%

6%

6%

49% think that the Labor Party will be more united under Kevin Rudd’s leadership and 14% think it will be less united. 27% think it will make no difference.

57% of men think it will be more united compared to 41% of women.

Labor Party policies

Jul 8, 2013

Q. Under Kevin Rudd’s leadership, do you think the Labor Party should dump, change or keep their policies on the following issues?

 

Dump

Keep

Change

Don’t know

Handling of asylum seekers

21%

10%

51%

17%

Building the NBN

14%

50%

15%

15%

The mining tax

29%

30%

24%

18%

The carbon tax

39%

25%

23%

13%

The Gonski education reforms

15%

44%

16%

25%

The NDIS

7%

59%

9%

25%

Respondents were most likely to think the Labor Party under Kevin Rudd should keep the NDIS (59%), building the NBN (50%) and the Gonski reforms (44%).

51% think it should change the policies around handling asylum seekers and 39% think it should dump the carbon tax. Opinions were divided over the mining tax – 30% keep, 29% dump and 24% change.

Labor voters were most in favour of keeping the NBN (78%), the mining tax (47%), the carbon tax (39%), the Gonski reforms (67%) and the NDIS (74%) but favoured changing the policy on asylum seekers (56%).

Election date

Jul 8, 2013

Q. Do you think the Federal election should be held on September 14th as currently scheduled, earlier or later?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

On September 14th

39%

44%

38%

49%

Earlier

27%

15%

41%

9%

Later

16%

24%

10%

14%

Don’t know

19%

16%

12%

29%

39% favoured keeping the election date as scheduled, 27% want it earlier and 16% prefer it later. The current date was most favoured by Greens voters (49%) and Labor voters (44%). Liberal/National voters were divided – 41% want it earlier and 38% prefer the scheduled date.

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