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  • Jul, 2013

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,778 respondent

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    11/6/13

    2 weeks ago

    24/6/13

    Last week

    1/7/13

    This week

    8/7/13

    Liberal

     

    44%

    44%

    43%

    42%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    4%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    47%

    47%

    46%

    46%

    Labor

    38.0%

    36%

    34%

    36%

    38%

    Greens

    11.8%

    8%

    8%

    9%

    8%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    11%

    9%

    7%

     

    2 Party Preferred

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    11/6/13

    2 weeks ago

    24/6/13

    Last week

    1/7/13

    This week

    8/7/13

    Liberal National

    49.9%

    54%

    55%

    53%

    52%

    Labor

    50.1%

    46%

    45%

    47%

    48%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Leader attributes – Kevin Rudd

    Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd?

     

    Julia Gillard

    23 Jun 13

     

    Kevin Rudd

    8 Jul 13

    Change

    Intelligent

    69%

    77%

    +8

    Hard-working

    71%

    70%

    -1

    A capable leader

    44%

    58%

    +14

    Understands the problems facing Australia

    42%

    57%

    +15

    Good in a crisis

    41%

    53%

    +12

    Arrogant

    48%

    49%

    +1

    Erratic

    47%

    45%

    -2

    Superficial

    49%

    44%

    -5

    Aggressive

    45%

    43%

    -2

    Visionary

    32%

    43%

    +11

    Trustworthy

    30%

    42%

    +12

    More honest than most politicians

    30%

    41%

    +11

    Out of touch with ordinary people

    57%

    39%

    -18

    Intolerant

    39%

    37%

    -2

    Narrow-minded

    46%

    34%

    -12

    Kevin Rudd’s key attributes were intelligent (77%), hard-working (70%), a capable leader (58%), understands the problems facing Australia (57%) and good in a crisis (53%).

    He was rated substantially higher than Julia Gillard in terms of understanding the problems facing Australia (+15%), a capable leader (+14%), good in a crisis (+12%) and trustworthy (+12%) and substantially lower on being out of touch with ordinary people (-18%).

  • Jul, 2013

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    Leader attributes – Tony Abbott

    Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?

     

    5 Jul 10

    27 Jun 11

    2 Apr 12

    14 jan 13

    2 Apr 13

    23 Jun 13

     

    8 Jul 13

    Change

    Hard-working

    76%

    75%

    68%

    70%

    70%

    68%

    65%

    -3

    Intelligent

    70%

    61%

    56%

    64%

    63%

    62%

    60%

    -2

    Narrow-minded

    56%

    54%

    54%

    56%

    53%

    55%

    55%

    Arrogant

    59%

    60%

    61%

    61%

    56%

    59%

    54%

    -5

    Out of touch with ordinary people

    57%

    57%

    54%

    54%

    52%

    52%

    50%

    -2

    Aggressive

    55%

    49%

    51%

    50%

    -1

    Superficial

    49%

    49%

    48%

    49%

    49%

    47%

    -2

    Intolerant

    49%

    48%

    48%

    46%

    -2

    Erratic

    51%

    45%

    47%

    45%

    -2

    Understands the problems facing Australia

    50%

    48%

    49%

    47%

    49%

    44%

    45%

    +1

    A capable leader

    47%

    45%

    41%

    43%

    47%

    44%

    42%

    -2

    Good in a crisis

    40%

    40%

    36%

    39%

    44%

    38%

    38%

    Trustworthy

    33%

    32%

    32%

    33%

    36%

    31%

    32%

    +1

    More honest than most politicians

    33%

    32%

    30%

    29%

    36%

    29%

    30%

    +1

    Visionary

    32%

    27%

    26%

    28%

    37%

    30%

    26%

    -4

    Tony Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (65%), intelligent (60%), narrow-minded (55%), arrogant (54%), out of touch with ordinary people (50%) and aggressive (50%).

    Since last month the largest shifts have been for arrogant (-5%) and visionary (-4%).

  • Jul, 2013

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    Labor Party more or less united

    Q. Do you think that following the election of Kevin Rudd as leader, the Labor Party will be more united, less united or will it make no difference?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total more united

    49%

    75%

    33%

    56%

    Total less united

    14%

    5%

    21%

    10%

    Much more united

    17%

    33%

    9%

    10%

    A little more united

    32%

    42%

    24%

    46%

    A little less united

    7%

    4%

    10%

    4%

    Much less united

    7%

    1%

    11%

    6%

    Make no difference

    27%

    11%

    40%

    28%

    Don’t know

    10%

    7%

    6%

    6%

    49% think that the Labor Party will be more united under Kevin Rudd’s leadership and 14% think it will be less united. 27% think it will make no difference.

    57% of men think it will be more united compared to 41% of women.

  • Jul, 2013

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    Labor Party policies

    Q. Under Kevin Rudd’s leadership, do you think the Labor Party should dump, change or keep their policies on the following issues?

     

    Dump

    Keep

    Change

    Don’t know

    Handling of asylum seekers

    21%

    10%

    51%

    17%

    Building the NBN

    14%

    50%

    15%

    15%

    The mining tax

    29%

    30%

    24%

    18%

    The carbon tax

    39%

    25%

    23%

    13%

    The Gonski education reforms

    15%

    44%

    16%

    25%

    The NDIS

    7%

    59%

    9%

    25%

    Respondents were most likely to think the Labor Party under Kevin Rudd should keep the NDIS (59%), building the NBN (50%) and the Gonski reforms (44%).

    51% think it should change the policies around handling asylum seekers and 39% think it should dump the carbon tax. Opinions were divided over the mining tax – 30% keep, 29% dump and 24% change.

    Labor voters were most in favour of keeping the NBN (78%), the mining tax (47%), the carbon tax (39%), the Gonski reforms (67%) and the NDIS (74%) but favoured changing the policy on asylum seekers (56%).

  • Jul, 2013

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    Election date

    Q. Do you think the Federal election should be held on September 14th as currently scheduled, earlier or later?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    On September 14th

    39%

    44%

    38%

    49%

    Earlier

    27%

    15%

    41%

    9%

    Later

    16%

    24%

    10%

    14%

    Don’t know

    19%

    16%

    12%

    29%

    39% favoured keeping the election date as scheduled, 27% want it earlier and 16% prefer it later. The current date was most favoured by Greens voters (49%) and Labor voters (44%). Liberal/National voters were divided – 41% want it earlier and 38% prefer the scheduled date.

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