Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 10, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 2,077 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

13/8/12

2 weeks ago

27/8/12

Last week

3/9/12

This week

10 Sept 2012

Liberal

46%

46%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

48%

47%

Labor

38.0%

32%

32%

34%

34%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

 

2 weeks ago

 

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

55%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

45%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Approval of Julia Gillard

Sep 10, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

 

19 Jul 2010

14 June 2011

12 Dec 2011

16 Jan 2012

16 Apr 2012

16 Jul 2012

Last month 13 Aug 2012

This week  10 Sept 2012

Total approve

52%

34%

34%

37%

32%

32%

31%

35%

Total disapprove

30%

54%

54%

52%

58%

58%

57%

54%

Strongly approve

11%

6%

6%

6%

7%

5%

7%

7%

Approve

41%

28%

28%

31%

25%

27%

24%

28%

Disapprove

17%

29%

25%

27%

31%

26%

25%

27%

Strongly disapprove

13%

25%

29%

25%

27%

32%

32%

27%

Don’t know

18%

13%

11%

12%

10%

10%

13%

11%

Approval of Julia Gillard climbed 4 points from 31% last month to 35% approving of the job she is doing as Prime Minister this month, whilst her disapproval fell 3 points in the same time. In the 2 years since July 2010, Gillard’s disapproval has risen 24 points from 30% to 54%.

By state, approval for Gillard was strongest in South Australia (46%) and Victoria (44%) and weakest in Western Australia (66%, however this Western Australian sample size is considerably smaller at n=64).

Approval for Gillard was significantly stronger amongst female respondents (40% approve, 47% disapprove) compared to male respondents (31% approve/ 60% disapprove).

Approval of Tony Abbott

Sep 10, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

19 Jul 2010

14 June 2011

12 Dec 2011

16 Jan 2012

16 Apr 2012

16 Jul 2012

Last month 13 Aug 2012

This week   10 Sept 2012

Total approve

40%

38%

32%

35%

38%

35%

36%

32%

Total disapprove

44%

48%

53%

51%

50%

53%

51%

55%

Strongly approve

6%

6%

6%

7%

7%

7%

8%

6%

Approve

34%

32%

26%

28%

31%

28%

28%

26%

Disapprove

22%

25%

25%

25%

23%

23%

22%

26%

Strongly disapprove

22%

23%

28%

26%

27%

30%

29%

29%

Don’t know

16%

15%

14%

13%

13%

12%

13%

13%

Tony Abbott’s approval fell 4 points within the last month, from 36% approval in August to 32% this week.  His disapproval picked up 4 points from 51% to 55% in the same period.   Over the 2 years since July 2010, his disapproval has risen 11 points from 44% to 55%.

There were few significant variations by state, save that respondents in South Australia were significantly more likely to disapprove of the job Abbot is doing as Opposition leader (63%).

Male respondents were more likely to approve of Abbott’s performance (36% approve / 55% disapprove) compared to female respondents (28% approve / 54% disapprove).

Better Prime Minister

Sep 10, 2012

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

19 July 2010

14 Jun 2011

12 Dec 2011

16 Jan 2012

16 Apr 2012

16 Jul 2012

Last month 13 Aug 2012

This week  10 Sept 2012

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

50%

41%

39%

39%

38%

37%

36%

40%

87%

4%

80%

Tony Abbott

27%

36%

35%

36%

36%

38%

38%

37%

3%

76%

5%

Don’t know

23%

24%

26%

25%

25%

26%

26%

24%

10%

20%

15%

Forty percent (40%) of respondents believe that Julia Gillard would make a better Prime Minister than Tony Abbott, up 4% from the last time the question was polled in August 2012.   Gillard has resumed the lead on Abbott as preferred Prime Minister, having dropped behind him after April 2012.

There was little change in favour of Abbott, with belief that Abbott would make a better Prime Minister changing just 1% from last month, down to 37%.

This week’s figures are fairly consistent with the results from the beginning of the year (39% in favour of Gillard, 36% in favour of Abbott).

Over the two years since July 2010, belief that Gillard would make a better Prime Minister has dropped 10 points from 50% to 40%, whilst belief that Abbott would make a better Prime Minister has equally increased 10 points from 27% to 37%.

Female respondents were more likely to regard Gillard as the better Prime Minister (44% Gillard / 30% Abbott) whereas male respondents were more likely to regard Abbott as the better Prime Minister (36% Gillard / 44% Abbott).

Troops in Afghanistan

Sep 10, 2012

Q. Thinking about the Australian troops in Afghanistan, do you think Australia should –

 

21 Jun 2010

9 May 2011

21 Nov 2011

19 Mar 2012

This week  10 Sept 2012

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Increase the number of troops in Afghanistan

7%

6%

3%

4%

4%

5%

6%

3%

Keep the same number of troops in Afghanistan

24%

36%

22%

22%

23%

23%

27%

20%

Withdraw our troops from Afghanistan

61%

48%

64%

64%

62%

60%

58%

65%

Don’t know

8%

11%

11%

10%

11%

12%

9%

12%

There is little change in respondents’ positions on troops in Afghanistan. Compared to the last time the question was polled six months ago in March 2012, 4% still believe that we should increase the number of troops. Belief that we should maintain the same number of troops increased 1% to 23% and belief that we should withdraw troops fell just 2 points from 64% in March 2012 to 62%.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters were the most in favour of maintaining troop numbers (27%) compared to Labor voters (23%) and Greens voters (20%).   Greens voters were the most likely to want to withdraw troops from Afghanistan (65%) when compared with Labor voters (60%) and Coalition voters (58%).

Unions in Australia

Sep 10, 2012

Q. Overall, do you think unions have been good or bad for Australian working people? 

 

19 Mar 2012

This week 10 Sept 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Work full time

Work part time

Total good

48%

45%

67%

30%

74%

47%

51%

Total bad

17%

20%

4%

36%

6%

22%

18%

Very good

12%

11%

20%

4%

28%

11%

12%

Good

36%

34%

47%

26%

46%

36%

39%

Neither good nor bad

28%

27%

24%

30%

13%

25%

21%

Bad

11%

12%

3%

20%

5%

12%

11%

Very bad

6%

8%

1%

16%

1%

10%

7%

Don’t know

6%

8%

6%

4%

7%

5%

9%

The largest portion of respondents polled believe that overall, unions have been good for Australian working people (45% total good), whilst a fifth of respondents (20%) felt that they had been bad for working people.   Results have moved slightly since the last time the question was polled in March 2012, with those respondents regarding unions as good dropping from 48% to 45% and those regarding them as bad rising the equivalent amount from 17% to 20% in the same period.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Greens voters were by the most likely to believe that unions had been good for working people (74%), whilst Coalition voters were by far the most likely to believe that unions had been bad for Australian working people (36%).

The majority of part time workers believed that unions had been good for Australian working people (51%) compared with 47% of full time workers.

Importance of Unions

Sep 10, 2012

Q. And how important are unions for Australian working people today?

 

19 Mar 2012

This week 10 Sept 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Work full time

Work part time

Total Important

56%

52%

72%

34%

82%

52%

56%

Total Not Important

35%

38%

21%

58%

11%

42%

33%

Very important

19%

16%

28%

6%

37%

19%

15%

Quite important

37%

36%

44%

28%

45%

33%

41%

Not very important

27%

28%

19%

40%

9%

31%

25%

Not at all important

8%

10%

2%

18%

2%

11%

8%

Don’t know

9%

10%

6%

8%

7%

6%

10%

The majority of respondents regarded unions to be important for Australian working people today (52%), whilst 38% believe that they were not important.  Belief that they are important fell 4 points from 56% in March 2012 to 52% in this week’s results.

Greens voters were by far the most likely to believe that unions were important for Australian working people today (82%), whilst Coalition voters were the most likely to regard unions as not important (58%).

Both the majority of full time workers (52%) and part time workers (56%) regarded unions as important for Australian working people today.  However full time workers (42%) were more likely than part time workers (33%) to regard unions as not important.

Better or worse off with stronger unions

Sep 10, 2012

Q. Overall, would workers be better off or worse off if unions in Australia were stronger?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Work full time

Work part time

Total better off

39%

58%

24%

71%

40%

40%

Total worse off

30%

17%

47%

9%

35%

24%

A lot better off

13%

24%

7%

20%

15%

13%

A little better off

26%

34%

17%

51%

25%

27%

A little worse off

15%

13%

20%

5%

16%

12%

A lot worse off

15%

4%

27%

4%

19%

12%

Make no difference

15%

12%

18%

7%

16%

15%

Don’t know

15%

14%

12%

13%

9%

21%

The largest portion of respondents felt that workers would be better off if unions in Australia were stronger (39%), followed by 30% of respondents that believed workers would be worse off (30%).  Fifteen percent (15%) felt that it would make no difference.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Greens voters were the most likely to believe that workers would be better off (71%), whilst Coalition voters were by far the most likely to believe that workers would be worse off (47%).

Whilst the same portion of full time workers and part time workers felt that workers would be better off (both 40%), full time workers were more likely to believe that workers would be worse off if unions were stronger (35%) compared to part time workers (24%).

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