Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 10, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,888 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

12/11/12

2 weeks ago

26/11/12

Last week

3/12/12

This week

10/12/12

Liberal

42%

44%

44%

45%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

45%

47%

47%

48%

Labor

38.0%

37%

36%

37%

36%

Greens

11.8%

9%

10%

9%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

8%

7%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

52%

53%

53%

54%

Labor

50.1%

48%

47%

47%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Approval of Julia Gillard

Dec 10, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

 

19
Jul
10

20 Dec

14 Mar
11

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 12

12 Jun

10 Sept

15 Oct

12 Nov

10 Dec

Total approve

52%

43%

41%

34%

28%

34%

32%

32%

35%

41%

41%

37%

Total disapprove

30%

40%

46%

54%

64%

54%

61%

56%

54%

51%

49%

53%

Strongly approve

11%

10%

7%

6%

5%

6%

8%

6%

7%

9%

7%

10%

Approve

41%

33%

34%

28%

23%

28%

24%

26%

28%

32%

34%

27%

Disapprove

17%

24%

22%

29%

28%

25%

29%

22%

27%

24%

25%

25%

Strongly disapprove

13%

16%

24%

25%

36%

29%

32%

34%

27%

27%

24%

28%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

13%

8%

11%

7%

12%

11%

8%

10%

11%

37% (down 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 53% (up 4%) disapprove – an 8-point change in net rating from -8 to -16.

82% of Labor voters approve (down 3%) and 13% disapprove (up 5%).

By gender – men 36% approve/57% disapprove, women 38% approve/48% disapprove.  In net terms this represents a shift with men from -16 to -21 and with women from 0 to -10.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Dec 10, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

 

18 Jan
10

5
Jul

20 Dec

14 Mar
11

14 Jun

12 Sep

12 Dec

12 Mar 12

12 Jun

10 Sept

15 Oct

12 Nov

10 Dec

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

38%

39%

32%

36%

32%

32%

37%

33%

33%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

47%

48%

50%

53%

52%

54%

55%

54%

58%

56%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

7%

6%

8%

6%

7%

6%

6%

9%

6%

8%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

31%

32%

31%

26%

29%

26%

26%

28%

27%

25%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

24%

25%

23%

25%

23%

24%

26%

23%

28%

25%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

23%

27%

28%

29%

30%

29%

31%

30%

31%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

16%

15%

11%

14%

12%

13%

13%

9%

10%

12%

33% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 56% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -25 to -23 over the last 4 weeks.

63% (down 2%) of Coalition voters approve and 30% (up 1%) disapprove.

By gender – men 37% approve/55% disapprove, women 28% approve/56% disapprove. In net terms this represents a small improvement with men from -20 to -18 and with women from -30 to -28.

Better Prime Minister

Dec 10, 2012

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5
Jul 10

14 Mar 11

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 12

12 Jun

10 Sept

15 Oct

12 Nov

10 Dec

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

53%

44%

41%

36%

39%

40%

37%

40%

43%

45%

43%

92%

6%

80%

Tony Abbott

26%

33%

36%

40%

35%

37%

37%

37%

36%

32%

34%

4%

71%

1%

Don’t know

21%

23%

24%

24%

26%

23%

26%

24%

20%

23%

23%

5%

23%

19%

43% (down 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (up 2%) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/39% and women prefer Julia Gillard 46%/29%. Compared to last month’s figures, Julia Gillard’s margin over Tony Abbott has dropped 3 points among men (from 40%/36%) and 4 points among women (from 49%/28%).

Change in gas/electricity costs

Dec 10, 2012

Q. Over the last few years, have your gas and/or electricity costs increased, decreased or stayed much the same?

Total increased

86%

Total decreased

2%

Increased a lot

45%

Increased a moderate amount

26%

Increased a little

15%

Stayed about the same

8%

Decreased a little

1%

Decreased a moderate amount

*

Decreased a lot

1%

Don’t know

5%

86% say their power costs have increased over the last few years including 45% who say their costs have increased a lot.

Those most likely to say their power costs have increased a lot were aged 45-54 (59%) and Liberal/National voters (50%).

There were no substantial differences across income groups.

88% of those with air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power costs had increased including 47% who said they have increased a lot.

In comparison, 79% of those without air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power costs had increased including 40% who said they have increased a lot.

Change in gas/electricity usage

Dec 10, 2012

Q. And as far as you know, over the last few years, has your gas and/or electricity usage increased, decreased or stayed much the same?

Total increased

54%

Total decreased

16%

Increased a lot

24%

Increased a moderate amount

15%

Increased a little

15%

Stayed about the same

26%

Decreased a little

11%

Decreased a moderate amount

3%

Decreased a lot

2%

Don’t know

4%

54% say their power usage has increased over the last few years, 16% say it has decreased and 26% think it has stayed much the same.

Change in usage was similar across all ages except the 65+ group where 39% thought their usage had increased, 22% decreased and 38% stayed much the same.

Among Greens voters, 42% said their usage had increased, 24% decreased and 30% stayed much the same. There were no substantial differences across income groups.

56% of those with air conditioning or evaporative cooling said their power usage had increased compared with 45% of those without air conditioning or evaporative cooling.

Responsibility for gas/electricity prices

Dec 10, 2012

Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The Federal Government

27%

17%

40%

15%

The State Government

16%

18%

14%

18%

The power companies

45%

54%

37%

56%

Don’t know

13%

11%

9%

11%

45% believe that power companies are mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices, 27% think the Federal Government is mainly responsible and 16% State Governments.

40% of Liberal/National voters think the Federal Government is mainly responsible. Answers were similar across the major states – NSW, Victoria, Queensland.

Operation of power generation and distribution

Dec 10, 2012

Q. Which is closer to your view? 

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Power generation and distribution should be operated by private companies, because they are more efficient and competition will keep prices down

24%

20%

31%

9%

Power generation and distribution should be operated by government, because it is not motivated by profit and will keep our energy supply secure

56%

66%

52%

68%

Don’t know

19%

13%

17%

23%

56% agree that power generation and distribution should be operated by government and 24% think they should be operated by private companies.

Liberal/National voters (31%) were most likely to support operation by private companies while highest support for Government operation came from Labor voters (66%), Greens voters (68%) and respondents aged 45+ (63%).

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