Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 10, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,865 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

 

4 weeks ago

12/11/13

2 weeks ago

26/11/13

Last week

3/12/13

This week

10/12/13

Liberal

 

42%

41%

41%

41%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

44%

45%

44%

44%

Labor

33.4%

35%

36%

36%

37%

Greens

8.6%

9%

9%

8%

8%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

4%

4%

4%

5%

Other/Independent

6.9%

8%

7%

7%

7%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

12/11/13

2 weeks ago

26/11/13

Last week

3/12/13

This week

10/12/13

Liberal National

53.5%

53%

53%

52%

51%

Labor

46.5%

47%

47%

48%

49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Dec 10, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other/

indep-endent

 

Tony Abbott as Opposition Leader

2 Sep

Tony Abbott as Prime Minister

24 Sep

22
Oct

12
Nov

Total approve

45%

 

10%

89%

9%

33%

 

40%

41%

46%

45%

Total disapprove

46%

 

84%

5%

85%

47%

 

49%

36%

35%

40%

Strongly approve

12%

3%

27%

3%

13%

14%

16%

14%

Approve

33%

7%

62%

9%

30%

27%

27%

30%

31%

Disapprove

20%

34%

5%

19%

23%

19%

13%

15%

19%

Strongly disapprove

26%

50%

*

66%

24%

30%

23%

20%

21%

Don’t know

9%

6%

6%

5%

15%

10%

23%

19%

16%

45% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Prime Minister and 46% (up 6%) disapprove. This represents a decline on his rating as Prime Minister over the last four weeks from net +5 to net -1.

By gender – 50% (no change) of men approve and 43% (up 5%) disapprove; 41% (up 2%) of women approve and 49% (up 7%) disapprove.

Approval of Bill Shorten

Dec 10, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other/ Indep-endent

 

12 Nov

Total approve

39%

 

66%

22%

49%

24%

31%

Total disapprove

31%

 

10%

49%

20%

44%

27%

Strongly approve

7%

17%

1%

7%

1%

5%

Approve

32%

49%

21%

42%

23%

26%

Disapprove

19%

9%

26%

15%

27%

17%

Strongly disapprove

12%

1%

23%

5%

17%

10%

Don’t know

31%

24%

29%

31%

32%

43%

39% approve (up 8%) of the job Bill Shorten is doing as Opposition Leader and 31% (up 4%) disapprove. 31% could not give an opinion. This represents an improvement on his rating as Prime Minister over the last four weeks from net +4 to net +8.

By gender – 40% (up 6%) of men approve and 35% (up 2%) disapprove; 36% (up 9%) of women approve and 27% (up 6%) disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Dec 10, 2013

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other/

indep-endent

 

22 Oct

12 Nov

Tony Abbott

43%

7%

86%

4%

42%

41%

42%

Bill Shorten

33%

68%

4%

62%

20%

22%

27%

Don’t know

24%

24%

10%

34%

38%

37%

31%

43%  (up 1%) think Tony Abbott would make the better Prime Minister and 33% (up 6%) favour Bill Shorten. 24% (down 7%) could not make a choice.

Tony Abbott is favoured 48%/31% among men and 38%/35% among women.

Government’s handling of education issues

Dec 10, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Liberal Government is handling education issues?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other/

indep-endent

Total approve

35%

8%

70%

6%

25%

Total disapprove

50%

82%

15%

90%

52%

Strongly approve

8%

3%

16%

2%

Approve

27%

5%

54%

6%

23%

Disapprove

21%

27%

12%

24%

27%

Strongly disapprove

29%

55%

3%

66%

25%

Don’t know

15%

10%

15%

4%

23%

35% approve and 50% disapprove of the way the Liberal Government is handling education issues.

Men split 43% approve/45% disapprove compared to women 28% approve/53% disapprove.

Schools under the Liberal Government

Dec 10, 2013

Q. Which schools do you think will be better off under the Liberal Government’s education plan? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other/

indep-endent

All schools will be better off

26%

7%

51%

7%

17%

Only private schools will be better off

26%

43%

11%

30%

28%

Only public schools will be better off

2%

1%

3%

2%

1%

No schools will be better off

22%

33%

6%

49%

26%

Don’t know

25%

16%

28%

12%

28%

26% think that, under a Liberal Government, all schools will be better off. 26% think only private schools will be better off and 22% think no schools will be better off, while only 2% think that only public schools will be better off.

51% of Liberal/National voters think all schools will be better off, 43% of Labor voters think only private schools will be better off and 49% of Greens voters think no schools will be better off.

Party trust to handle education

Dec 10, 2013

Q.  Which party would you trust most to ensure a quality education for all children?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other/

indep-endent

Labor

36%

84%

5%

24%

28%

Liberal

33%

2%

72%

3%

25%

Greens

7%

3%

1%

61%

6%

Don’t know

23%

11%

23%

12%

41%

36% trust the Labor Party most to ensure a quality education for all children and 33% trust the Liberal Party most. When this issue was last measured in November, 34% favoured the Labor Party and 32% the Liberal Party.

Those more likely to trust the Labor Party most were aged 35-54 (42%) and people on low incomes (44% of those earning less than $600 pw).

Those more likely to trust the Liberal Party most were aged 55+ (44%) and people earning more than $1,000 pw (38%).

Politicians commitments

Dec 10, 2013

Q.  Which of the following statements best reflects your view:

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other/

indep-endent

 

10 Oct 11

When a politician makes a statement or commitment they should stick to it no matter what

28%

34%

21%

47%

23%

17%

As situations change, it is reasonable that politicians change their positions

41%

25%

62%

24%

25%

47%

Politicians almost always lie – it’s naive to think otherwise

31%

41%

16%

29%

51%

36%

41% agree that ‘as situations change, it is reasonable that politicians change their positions’. Liberal/National voters are the most likely to take this position.

31% of respondents agreed with the view that ‘politicians almost always lie – it’s naïve to think otherwise’, and Labor voters are the most likely to take this view.

28% of respondents felt that ‘when a politician make a statement or commitment they should stick to it not matter what’, with Greens voters the most likely to adopt this view. Since this question was asked in 2011, those agreeing with this statement has increased from 17%.

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