The Essential Report Archive Read the latest report

  • Feb, 2013

    , , , , , ,

    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,897 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    14/1/13

    2 weeks ago

    29/1/13

    Last week

    5/02/13

    This week

    11/02/13

    Liberal

    44%

    44%

    45%

    45%

    National

    4%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    48%

    48%

    48%

    48%

    Labor

    38.0%

    36%

    35%

    34%

    34%

    Greens

    11.8%

    8%

    10%

    10%

    9%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    8%

    7%

    8%

    9%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

     

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    54%

    54%

    54%

    55%

    Labor

    50.1%

    46%

    46%

    46%

    45%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

  • Feb, 2013

    , ,

    Approval of Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

     

    19
    Jul
    10

    20
    Dec

    14
    Mar
    11

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12
    Mar
    12

    12
    Jun

    10 Sept

    10
    Dec

    14
    Jan
    13

    11
    Feb

    Total approve

    52%

    43%

    41%

    34%

    28%

    34%

    32%

    32%

    35%

    37%

    41%

    36%

    Total disapprove

    30%

    40%

    46%

    54%

    64%

    54%

    61%

    56%

    54%

    53%

    49%

    55%

    Strongly approve

    11%

    10%

    7%

    6%

    5%

    6%

    8%

    6%

    7%

    10%

    9%

    7%

    Approve

    41%

    33%

    34%

    28%

    23%

    28%

    24%

    26%

    28%

    27%

    32%

    29%

    Disapprove

    17%

    24%

    22%

    29%

    28%

    25%

    29%

    22%

    27%

    25%

    23%

    25%

    Strongly disapprove

    13%

    16%

    24%

    25%

    36%

    29%

    32%

    34%

    27%

    28%

    26%

    30%

    Don’t know

    18%

    17%

    13%

    13%

    8%

    11%

    7%

    12%

    11%

    11%

    10%

    9%

    36% (down 5%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 55% (up 6%) disapprove – an 11-point change in net rating from -8 to -19 over the last 4 weeks.

    75% of Labor voters approve (down 12%) and 19% disapprove (up 12%).

    By gender – men 34% approve/57% disapprove, women 38% approve/52% disapprove.  In net terms this represents a decline with men from -13 to -23 and with women from -3 to -14.

  • Feb, 2013

    , ,

    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

     

    18
    Jan
    10

    5 Jul

     

    20 Dec

    14 Mar
    11

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 12

    12
    Jun

    10 Sept

    10 Dec

    14
    Jan
    13

    11 Feb

    Total approve

    37%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    38%

    39%

    32%

    36%

    32%

    32%

    33%

    33%

    36%

    Total disapprove

    37%

    47%

    39%

    47%

    48%

    50%

    53%

    52%

    54%

    55%

    56%

    57%

    53%

    Strongly approve

    5%

    8%

    9%

    7%

    6%

    8%

    6%

    7%

    6%

    6%

    8%

    8%

    7%

    Approve

    32%

    29%

    30%

    31%

    32%

    31%

    26%

    29%

    26%

    26%

    25%

    25%

    29%

    Disapprove

    20%

    23%

    21%

    24%

    25%

    23%

    25%

    23%

    24%

    26%

    25%

    27%

    22%

    Strongly disapprove

    17%

    24%

    18%

    23%

    23%

    27%

    28%

    29%

    30%

    29%

    31%

    30%

    31%

    Don’t know

    26%

    16%

    22%

    16%

    15%

    11%

    14%

    12%

    13%

    13%

    12%

    10%

    11%

    36% (up 3%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (down 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -24 to -17 over the last 4 weeks.

    70% (up 8%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (down 10%) disapprove.

    By gender – men 38% approve/51% disapprove, women 34% approve/55% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -15 to -13 and with women from -31 to -21.

  • Feb, 2013

    , , , ,

    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

     

    5
    Jul
    10

    14
    Mar
    11

    14 June

    12 Sept

    12 Dec

    12 Mar 12

    12
    Jun

    10 Sept

    10 Dec

    14
    Jan
    13

    11
    Feb

    Vote
    ALP

    Vote Lib

    Vote Greens

    Julia Gillard

    53%

    44%

    41%

    36%

    39%

    40%

    37%

    40%

    43%

    42%

    39%

    82%

    5%

    69%

    Tony Abbott

    26%

    33%

    36%

    40%

    35%

    37%

    37%

    37%

    34%

    33%

    37%

    6%

    75%

    6%

    Don’t know

    21%

    23%

    24%

    24%

    26%

    23%

    26%

    24%

    23%

    24%

    24%

    12%

    20%

    25%

    39% (down 3%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (up 4%) prefer Tony Abbott.

    Men prefer Tony Abbott 41%/38% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/33%.

  • Feb, 2013

    , , ,

    Elections

    Q. Would you favour fixed term Federal Elections where elections are held on a set date or the current system where the Government chooses the date of each election?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Fixed term elections

    63%

    66%

    66%

    57%

    Current system

    23%

    23%

    21%

    27%

    Don’t know

    14%

    11%

    13%

    16%

    63% favour fixed term Federal Elections where elections are held on a set date and 23% favour the current system where the Government chooses the date of each election. There was majority support for fixed term elections across all demographic and voter groups. Strongest support came from older respondents with 73% of those aged 55+ preferring fixed term elections.

  • Feb, 2013

    , , , , , , , ,

    Important election issues

    Q.  Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?

     

    Total

    11 Feb 13

    19 Nov 12

    30 Jul 12

    5 Dec 11

    6 June 11

    25 Jan 10

    Management of the economy

    62%

    66%

    64%

    62%

    61%

    63%

    Ensuring a quality education for all children

    29%

    35%

    26%

    22%

    26%

    23%

    Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

    52%

    57%

    47%

    47%

    49%

    48%

    Protecting the environment

    14%

    14%

    11%

    13%

    15%

    16%

    A fair industrial relations system

    12%

    8%

    12%

    11%

    8%

    na

    Political leadership

    14%

    15%

    25%

    18%

    17%

    23%

    Addressing climate change

    9%

    9%

    9%

    10%

    15%

    16%

    Controlling interest rates

    9%

    11%

    9%

    11%

    13%

    15%

    Australian jobs and protection of local industries

    40%

    32%

    41%

    36%

    32%

    33%

    Ensuring a quality water supply

    4%

    5%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    12%

    Housing affordability

    11%

    14%

    13%

    13%

    16%

    14%

    Ensuring a fair taxation system

    21%

    17%

    18%

    16%

    17%

    14%

    Security and the war on terrorism

    6%

    5%

    5%

    4%

    8%

    9%

    Treatment of asylum seekers

    6%

    6%

    10%

    8%

    5%

    na

    Managing population growth

    9%

    7%

    8%

    8%

    12%

    na

    *Not asked

    62% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 52% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 40% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 29% ensuring a quality education for all children.

    Since November, there has been an increase in the importance of Australian jobs and protection of local industries (+8%) and a decline in the importance of ensuring a quality education for all children (-6%) and ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system (-5%).

  • Feb, 2013

    , , , , , , , ,

    Party trust to handle important election issues

    Q.  Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

     

    Labor

    Liberal

    Greens

    Don’t know

    Diff
    11
    Feb
    13

    Diff
    19
    Nov
    12

    Diff
    18
    Jun
    12

    Management of the economy

    31%

    46%

    3%

    21%

    -15

    -14

    -18

    Ensuring a quality education for all children

    37%

    35%

    6%

    22%

    +2

    +5

    -2

    Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

    33%

    36%

    6%

    25%

    -3

    -3

    -6

    Protecting the environment

    20%

    21%

    39%

    20%

    +18

    +16

    +17

    A fair industrial relations system

    39%

    33%

    4%

    23%

    +6

    +9

    +6

    Political leadership

    29%

    37%

    6%

    29%

    -8

    -12

    -16

    Addressing climate change

    21%

    24%

    29%

    26%

    +5

    +9

    +7

    Controlling interest rates

    27%

    41%

    3%

    30%

    -14

    -11

    -18

    Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries

    33%

    36%

    4%

    27%

    -3

    -2

    -6

    Ensuring a quality water supply

    21%

    27%

    23%

    29%

    -6

    -7

    -12

    Housing affordability

    27%

    33%

    5%

    35%

    -6

    -5

    -11

    Ensuring a fair taxation system

    31%

    37%

    4%

    28%

    -6

    -9

    -10

    Security and the war on terrorism

    25%

    38%

    4%

    33%

    -13

    -15

    -22

    Treatment of asylum seekers

    20%

    37%

    14%

    30%

    -17

    -18

    -20

    Managing population growth

    21%

    33%

    7%

    39%

    -12

    -15

    -19

    Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.

    Labor has a significant lead over the  Liberal Party only on ensuring a fair industrial relations system. The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership, security and the war on terrorism, treatment of asylum seekers and managing population growth.

    There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals on ensuring a quality education for all children, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries. Since November, there has been very little shift on any issue.

  • Feb, 2013

    , , , , , , , , ,

    Party with better policies

    Q. Which party do you think has the better policies for the following groups of people?

     

    Labor Party

    Liberal Party

    No difference

    Don’t know

    Net

    11 Feb 13

    Net

    6 Aug 12

    Pensioners

    32%

    23%

    31%

    15%

    +9

    +11

    Unemployed people

    34%

    21%

    30%

    15%

    +13

    +18

    People with disabilities

    35%

    20%

    29%

    17%

    +15

    +16

    Carers

    30%

    22%

    30%

    19%

    +8

    +12

    People on low incomes

    37%

    21%

    26%

    16%

    +16

    +22

    All working people

    32%

    31%

    23%

    14%

    +1

    -1

    The Labor Party was thought to have better policies than the Liberal Party on all issues except “all working people” where both parties had similar ratings. In particular the Labor Party was thought to have better policies for people on low incomes (37% Labor/21% Liberal), unemployed people (34%/21%) and people with disabilities (35%/20%).

    Of those aged 55+, 31% thought Labor had better policies for pensioners and 30% thought the Liberals had better policies.

    32% think Labor has better policies for all working people and 31% think the Liberals have better policies. Employed people are more likely to think the Liberals have the better policies (35% Liberal/31% Labor).

Error: