Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 11, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,897 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

14/1/13

2 weeks ago

29/1/13

Last week

5/02/13

This week

11/02/13

Liberal

44%

44%

45%

45%

National

4%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

36%

35%

34%

34%

Greens

11.8%

8%

10%

10%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

7%

8%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

54%

54%

55%

Labor

50.1%

46%

46%

46%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Approval of Julia Gillard

Feb 11, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

 

19
Jul
10

20
Dec

14
Mar
11

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12
Mar
12

12
Jun

10 Sept

10
Dec

14
Jan
13

11
Feb

Total approve

52%

43%

41%

34%

28%

34%

32%

32%

35%

37%

41%

36%

Total disapprove

30%

40%

46%

54%

64%

54%

61%

56%

54%

53%

49%

55%

Strongly approve

11%

10%

7%

6%

5%

6%

8%

6%

7%

10%

9%

7%

Approve

41%

33%

34%

28%

23%

28%

24%

26%

28%

27%

32%

29%

Disapprove

17%

24%

22%

29%

28%

25%

29%

22%

27%

25%

23%

25%

Strongly disapprove

13%

16%

24%

25%

36%

29%

32%

34%

27%

28%

26%

30%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

13%

8%

11%

7%

12%

11%

11%

10%

9%

36% (down 5%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 55% (up 6%) disapprove – an 11-point change in net rating from -8 to -19 over the last 4 weeks.

75% of Labor voters approve (down 12%) and 19% disapprove (up 12%).

By gender – men 34% approve/57% disapprove, women 38% approve/52% disapprove.  In net terms this represents a decline with men from -13 to -23 and with women from -3 to -14.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Feb 11, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

 

18
Jan
10

5 Jul

 

20 Dec

14 Mar
11

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 12

12
Jun

10 Sept

10 Dec

14
Jan
13

11 Feb

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

38%

39%

32%

36%

32%

32%

33%

33%

36%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

47%

48%

50%

53%

52%

54%

55%

56%

57%

53%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

7%

6%

8%

6%

7%

6%

6%

8%

8%

7%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

31%

32%

31%

26%

29%

26%

26%

25%

25%

29%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

24%

25%

23%

25%

23%

24%

26%

25%

27%

22%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

23%

27%

28%

29%

30%

29%

31%

30%

31%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

16%

15%

11%

14%

12%

13%

13%

12%

10%

11%

36% (up 3%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (down 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -24 to -17 over the last 4 weeks.

70% (up 8%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (down 10%) disapprove.

By gender – men 38% approve/51% disapprove, women 34% approve/55% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -15 to -13 and with women from -31 to -21.

Better Prime Minister

Feb 11, 2013

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5
Jul
10

14
Mar
11

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 12

12
Jun

10 Sept

10 Dec

14
Jan
13

11
Feb

Vote
ALP

Vote Lib

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

53%

44%

41%

36%

39%

40%

37%

40%

43%

42%

39%

82%

5%

69%

Tony Abbott

26%

33%

36%

40%

35%

37%

37%

37%

34%

33%

37%

6%

75%

6%

Don’t know

21%

23%

24%

24%

26%

23%

26%

24%

23%

24%

24%

12%

20%

25%

39% (down 3%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (up 4%) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men prefer Tony Abbott 41%/38% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/33%.

Elections

Feb 11, 2013

Q. Would you favour fixed term Federal Elections where elections are held on a set date or the current system where the Government chooses the date of each election?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Fixed term elections

63%

66%

66%

57%

Current system

23%

23%

21%

27%

Don’t know

14%

11%

13%

16%

63% favour fixed term Federal Elections where elections are held on a set date and 23% favour the current system where the Government chooses the date of each election. There was majority support for fixed term elections across all demographic and voter groups. Strongest support came from older respondents with 73% of those aged 55+ preferring fixed term elections.

Important election issues

Feb 11, 2013

Q.  Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?

 

Total

11 Feb 13

19 Nov 12

30 Jul 12

5 Dec 11

6 June 11

25 Jan 10

Management of the economy

62%

66%

64%

62%

61%

63%

Ensuring a quality education for all children

29%

35%

26%

22%

26%

23%

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

52%

57%

47%

47%

49%

48%

Protecting the environment

14%

14%

11%

13%

15%

16%

A fair industrial relations system

12%

8%

12%

11%

8%

na

Political leadership

14%

15%

25%

18%

17%

23%

Addressing climate change

9%

9%

9%

10%

15%

16%

Controlling interest rates

9%

11%

9%

11%

13%

15%

Australian jobs and protection of local industries

40%

32%

41%

36%

32%

33%

Ensuring a quality water supply

4%

5%

3%

4%

5%

12%

Housing affordability

11%

14%

13%

13%

16%

14%

Ensuring a fair taxation system

21%

17%

18%

16%

17%

14%

Security and the war on terrorism

6%

5%

5%

4%

8%

9%

Treatment of asylum seekers

6%

6%

10%

8%

5%

na

Managing population growth

9%

7%

8%

8%

12%

na

*Not asked

62% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 52% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 40% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 29% ensuring a quality education for all children.

Since November, there has been an increase in the importance of Australian jobs and protection of local industries (+8%) and a decline in the importance of ensuring a quality education for all children (-6%) and ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system (-5%).

Party trust to handle important election issues

Feb 11, 2013

Q.  Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

 

Labor

Liberal

Greens

Don’t know

Diff
11
Feb
13

Diff
19
Nov
12

Diff
18
Jun
12

Management of the economy

31%

46%

3%

21%

-15

-14

-18

Ensuring a quality education for all children

37%

35%

6%

22%

+2

+5

-2

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

33%

36%

6%

25%

-3

-3

-6

Protecting the environment

20%

21%

39%

20%

+18

+16

+17

A fair industrial relations system

39%

33%

4%

23%

+6

+9

+6

Political leadership

29%

37%

6%

29%

-8

-12

-16

Addressing climate change

21%

24%

29%

26%

+5

+9

+7

Controlling interest rates

27%

41%

3%

30%

-14

-11

-18

Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries

33%

36%

4%

27%

-3

-2

-6

Ensuring a quality water supply

21%

27%

23%

29%

-6

-7

-12

Housing affordability

27%

33%

5%

35%

-6

-5

-11

Ensuring a fair taxation system

31%

37%

4%

28%

-6

-9

-10

Security and the war on terrorism

25%

38%

4%

33%

-13

-15

-22

Treatment of asylum seekers

20%

37%

14%

30%

-17

-18

-20

Managing population growth

21%

33%

7%

39%

-12

-15

-19

Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.

Labor has a significant lead over the  Liberal Party only on ensuring a fair industrial relations system. The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership, security and the war on terrorism, treatment of asylum seekers and managing population growth.

There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals on ensuring a quality education for all children, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries. Since November, there has been very little shift on any issue.

Party with better policies

Feb 11, 2013

Q. Which party do you think has the better policies for the following groups of people?

 

Labor Party

Liberal Party

No difference

Don’t know

Net

11 Feb 13

Net

6 Aug 12

Pensioners

32%

23%

31%

15%

+9

+11

Unemployed people

34%

21%

30%

15%

+13

+18

People with disabilities

35%

20%

29%

17%

+15

+16

Carers

30%

22%

30%

19%

+8

+12

People on low incomes

37%

21%

26%

16%

+16

+22

All working people

32%

31%

23%

14%

+1

-1

The Labor Party was thought to have better policies than the Liberal Party on all issues except “all working people” where both parties had similar ratings. In particular the Labor Party was thought to have better policies for people on low incomes (37% Labor/21% Liberal), unemployed people (34%/21%) and people with disabilities (35%/20%).

Of those aged 55+, 31% thought Labor had better policies for pensioners and 30% thought the Liberals had better policies.

32% think Labor has better policies for all working people and 31% think the Liberals have better policies. Employed people are more likely to think the Liberals have the better policies (35% Liberal/31% Labor).