Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 11, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,906 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

13/5/13

2 weeks ago

27/5/13

Last week

3/6/13

This week

11/6/13

Liberal

 

44%

45%

45%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

48%

47%

Labor

38.0%

34%

34%

35%

36%

Greens

11.8%

9%

8%

8%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

10%

10%

9%

9%

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

13/5/13

2 weeks ago

27/5/13

Last week

3/6/13

This week

11/6/13

Liberal National

49.9%

55%

55%

55%

54%

Labor

50.1%

45%

45%

45%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Approval of Julia Gillard

Jun 11, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

 

19
Jul
10

20
Dec

14
June
11

12
Dec

12
Jun
12

10
Dec

14
Jan
13

11
Feb

11
Mar

15
Apr

13
May

11 Jun

Total approve

52%

43%

34%

34%

32%

37%

41%

36%

36%

34%

38%

37%

Total disapprove

30%

40%

54%

54%

56%

53%

49%

55%

56%

56%

54%

54%

Strongly approve

11%

10%

6%

6%

6%

10%

9%

7%

8%

8%

10%

10%

Approve

41%

33%

28%

28%

26%

27%

32%

29%

28%

26%

28%

27%

Disapprove

17%

24%

29%

25%

22%

25%

23%

25%

24%

23%

23%

21%

Strongly disapprove

13%

16%

25%

29%

34%

28%

26%

30%

32%

33%

31%

33%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

11%

12%

11%

10%

9%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Julia Gillard’s approval ratings have changed little in the last month. 37% (down 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (unchanged) disapprove – a 1-point change in net rating from -16 to -17 over the last 4 weeks.

79% of Labor voters approve (up 1%) and 14% disapprove (down 2%).

By gender – men 35% approve/58% disapprove, women 39% approve/51% disapprove.  In net terms this represents a decline with men (from -21 to -23) and an improvement with women (from -13 to -12).

Approval of Tony Abbott

Jun 11, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

 

18
Jan
10

5 Jul

20
Dec

14 June  11

12
Dec

12
Jun
12

10 Dec

14
Jan
13

11
Feb

11
Mar

15
Apr

13
May


11 Jun

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

32%

32%

33%

33%

36%

37%

37%

40%

40%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

48%

53%

54%

56%

57%

53%

51%

52%

50%

49%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

6%

6%

6%

8%

8%

7%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

32%

26%

26%

25%

25%

29%

30%

29%

31%

30%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

25%

25%

24%

25%

27%

22%

22%

24%

18%

17%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

28%

30%

31%

30%

31%

29%

28%

32%

32%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

15%

14%

13%

12%

10%

11%

12%

10%

11%

11%

Tony Abbott’s approval ratings also remained much the same as last month. 40% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 49% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -10 to -9 over the last 4 weeks, Tony Abbott’s best rating since July 2011.

80% (up 3%) of Coalition voters approve and 11% (down 2%) disapprove.

By gender – men 44% approve/47% disapprove, women 35% approve/52% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -7 to -3 and with women from -13 to -17.

Better Prime Minister

Jun 11, 2013

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5
Jul
10

14 June
11

12 Dec

12 Jun 12

10 Dec

14 Jan 13

11 Feb

11 Mar

15 Apr

13 May

Total
11 Jun

Vote Labor

Vote Lib

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

53%

41%

39%

37%

43%

42%

39%

39%

37%

39%

39%

82%

4%

73%

Tony Abbott

26%

36%

35%

37%

34%

33%

37%

39%

39%

41%

40%

5%

84%

7%

Don’t know

21%

24%

26%

26%

23%

24%

24%

22%

24%

20%

21%

13%

12%

20%

39% (no change) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 40% (down 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men prefer Tony Abbott 43%/35% and women prefer Julia Gillard 42%/38%.

Public funding of political parties

Jun 11, 2013

Q. Currently political parties and candidates receive public funding for election campaigning based on their votes at elections. They can also receive funding in the form of donations from individuals, organisations (including unions) and businesses. There is no limit on donations but amounts of more than $12,000 must be publically disclosed.

Do you think political parties and candidates should receive some public funding or should they be totally funded by donations?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Should receive some public funding

29%

33%

27%

51%

Should be totally funded by donations

47%

41%

53%

35%

Don’t know

23%

26%

20%

14%

29% agree that political parties and candidates should receive some public funding and 47% think they should be totally funded by donations.

Those most likely to support some public funding were Greens voters (51%), men (35%), aged 18-34 (34%) and people on incomes over $1,600pw (37%).

Should donations to political parties be capped

Jun 11, 2013

Q. Should donations to political parties and candidates be unlimited or should it be capped (that is, no organisation or individual should be able to donate more than a specified amount)?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Donations should be unlimited

17%

13%

25%

10%

Donations should be capped

65%

71%

61%

75%

Don’t know

17%

16%

14%

15%

65% think that donations to political parties and candidates should be capped and 17% think they should be unlimited. The highest support for unlimited donations came from Liberal/National voters (25%).

Public disclosure of donations

Jun 11, 2013

Q. At what level should donations to political parties and candidates be publically disclosed?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Donations over $1,000 should be disclosed

36%

37%

30%

51%

Donations over $5,000 should be disclosed

26%

24%

30%

28%

Donations over $12,000 should be disclosed

17%

18%

19%

11%

Donations should not have to be disclosed at all

5%

6%

6%

1%

Don’t know

16%

15%

15%

9%

Only 5% think that political donations should not have to be disclosed – 79% think they should be disclosed at some level. 36% favour disclosure of donations over $1,000 and a further 26% think they should be disclosed over $5,000.

Forms of intolerance

Jun 11, 2013

Q. For each of the following forms of intolerance, please indicate to what extent you think it is a problem in Australia.

 

Sept 12

Total large/ moderate

 

Total large/ moderate

A large problem

Moderate problem

Small

problem

Not a problem at all

Don’t know

Racism

71%

69%

29%

40%

24%

5%

2%

Religious intolerance

65%

54%

22%

32%

32%

10%

4%

Sexism

45%

52%

18%

34%

35%

11%

3%

Homophobia

50%

51%

18%

33%

33%

10%

5%

Ageism

44%

46%

16%

30%

34%

11%

9%

69% think that racism is a major/moderate problem in Australia – a similar result to when this question was previously asked in September last year. Just over half believe that religious intolerance, sexism and homophobia are major/moderate problems. The percentage thinking religious intolerance is a major/moderate problem has dropped 11 points while those thinking sexism is a major/moderate problem has increased 7 points since September.

Those most likely to think racism a major/moderate problem were women (76%), Greens voters (87%) and Labor voters (75%).

Those most likely to think sexism a major/moderate problem were women (61%), Greens voters (76%) and Labor voters (69%).

Those most likely to think homophobia a major/moderate problem were women (61%), Greens voters (74%), Labor voters (61%) and aged 18-34 (57%).

55% of those aged 55+ think ageism is a major/moderate problem.

There were no substantial differences between groups on views about religious intolerance.

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