Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 11, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,948 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

11/2/13

2 weeks ago

25/2/13

Last week

4/3/13

This week

11/3/13

Liberal

45%

46%

46%

45%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

49%

49%

48%

Labor

38.0%

34%

34%

32%

34%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

10%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

8%

8%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

56%

56%

55%

Labor

50.1%

45%

44%

44%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Approval of Julia Gillard

Mar 11, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

 

19 Jul 10

20 Dec

14 Mar
11

14 Jun

12 Sep

12 Dec

12 Mar 12

12 Jun

10 Sep

10 Dec

14 Jan 13

11 Feb

11 Mar

Total approve

52%

43%

41%

34%

28%

34%

32%

32%

35%

37%

41%

36%

36%

Total disapprove

30%

40%

46%

54%

64%

54%

61%

56%

54%

53%

49%

55%

56%

Strongly approve

11%

10%

7%

6%

5%

6%

8%

6%

7%

10%

9%

7%

8%

Approve

41%

33%

34%

28%

23%

28%

24%

26%

28%

27%

32%

29%

28%

Disapprove

17%

24%

22%

29%

28%

25%

29%

22%

27%

25%

23%

25%

24%

Strongly disapprove

13%

16%

24%

25%

36%

29%

32%

34%

27%

28%

26%

30%

32%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

13%

8%

11%

7%

12%

11%

11%

10%

9%

9%

36% (no change) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 56% (up 1%) disapprove – a 1-point change in net rating from -19 to -20 over the last 4 weeks.

75% of Labor voters approve (no change) and 16% disapprove (down 3%).

By gender – men 36% approve/60% disapprove, women 37% approve/51% disapprove.  In net terms this represents a decline with men from -23 to -24 and no change with women (-14).

Approval of Tony Abbott

Mar 11, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18
Jan
10

5
Jul

 

20 Dec

14
Mar
11

14
Jun

12
Sep

12 Dec

12
Mar
12

12
Jun

10 Sep

10
Dec

14
Jan
13

11
Feb

11
Mar

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

38%

39%

32%

36%

32%

32%

33%

33%

36%

37%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

47%

48%

50%

53%

52%

54%

55%

56%

57%

53%

51%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

7%

6%

8%

6%

7%

6%

6%

8%

8%

7%

7%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

31%

32%

31%

26%

29%

26%

26%

25%

25%

29%

30%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

24%

25%

23%

25%

23%

24%

26%

25%

27%

22%

22%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

23%

27%

28%

29%

30%

29%

31%

30%

31%

29%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

16%

15%

11%

14%

12%

13%

13%

12%

10%

11%

12%

37% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 51% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -14 over the last 4 weeks.

69% (down 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 20% (down 1%) disapprove.

By gender – men 42% approve/52% disapprove, women 33% approve/51% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -13 to -10 and with women from -21 to -18.

Better Prime Minister

Mar 11, 2013

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5
Jul 10

14 Mar 11

14 Jun

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 12

12 Jun

10 Sep

10 Dec

14 Jan 13

11 Feb

11 Mar

Vote
ALP 

Vote Lib

Vote Gre
ens

Julia Gillard

53%

44%

41%

36%

39%

40%

37%

40%

43%

42%

39%

39%

84%

6%

71%

Tony Abbott

26%

33%

36%

40%

35%

37%

37%

37%

34%

33%

37%

39%

2%

80%

3%

Don’t know

21%

23%

24%

24%

26%

23%

26%

24%

23%

24%

24%

22%

14%

13%

25%

39% (no change) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% (up 2%) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men prefer Tony Abbott 41%/36% and women prefer Julia Gillard 42%/37%.

Immigration issues

Mar 11, 2013

Q. Which of the following issues are you most concerned about?

(two versions of responses were presented – each to approximately half the sample)

The arrival of asylum seekers by boat

38%

33%

The arrival of approximately 15,000 asylum seekers by boat each year

The use of foreign workers under short term (457) visas

20%

31%

The use of about 150,000 foreign workers under short term (457) visas each year

The overall increase in Australia’s total population

18%

17%

The overall increase in Australia’s total population of about 300,000 people each year

None of them

19%

15%

None of them

Don’t know

4%

4%

Don’t know

As general issues (without specific figures), 38% of respondents said they were most concerned about the arrival of asylum seekers by boat compared to 20% most concerned about use of workers on 457 visas and 18% most concerned about the overall population increase.

When approximate figures were specified for each option, most concern about asylum seekers dropped to 33% and most concern about 457 visas increased to 31%.

Based on the options which included figures – 36% of Labor voters are most concerned about 457 visas compared to 32% of Liberal/National voters. Liberal/National voters were more concerned about asylum seekers (42% – compared to 23% for Labor voters).

There were few differences by age or gender – except that older respondents were somewhat more likely to be most concerned about asylum seekers (42% of aged 55+).

Opinion of privatisation

Mar 11, 2013

Q. Generally, do you think that privatisation – that is, having public services owned or run by private companies – is a good or bad idea?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

A good idea

22%

19%

28%

14%

A bad idea

58%

64%

54%

70%

Don’t know

20%

17%

18%

17%

58% think that, generally, privatisation is a bad idea and 22% think it is generally a good idea. More than half of all voter and demographic groups think it is generally a bad idea.

Those most likely to think it is a bad idea were – aged 55+ (66%), Greens voters (70%), Labor voters (64%) and incomes under $600pw (64%).

By state, 26% of NSW and 24% of Victoria think privatisation is generally a good idea compared to 15% for Queensland.

Services better run by Government or Private Sector

Mar 11, 2013

Q. Which of the following are better run by the private sector and which are better run by Government?

 

11 Mar 2013

31 Jan 2011

 

Better run by private sector

Better run by Government

Don’t know

Better run by private sector

Better run by Government

Don’t know

Electricity

25%

62%

13%

22%

61%

17%

Water

19%

69%

12%

15%

70%

16%

Trains, buses and ferries

25%

64%

11%

19%

68%

13%

Motorways

23%

66%

11%

17%

70%

13%

Community services such as child protection

14%

75%

11%

14%

71%

15%

Telecommunications (including broadband services)

45%

44%

11%

na

na

na

Hospitals and health services

19%

71%

10%

na

na

na

Schools

21%

69%

10%

na

na

na

Prisons

17%

73%

11%

10%

76%

15%

Universities

27%

61%

12%

20%

64%

16%

Ports

22%

60%

19%

na

na

na

Most services listed were clearly thought to be better run by Government than the private sector.

The only exception was telecommunications where respondents were split 45% private sector, 44% Government.

The areas most preferred to be run by Government were – community services (75%), prisons (73%), hospitals and health services (71%), schools (69%) and water (69%).

Compared to the results when this question was asked in January 2011, preference for the private sector running services has increased a little – +6% for trains, buses and ferries and motorways and +7% for prisons and universities.

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