TRENDS: Half Yearly Report Card

Jun 12, 2012


EMC Director Peter Lewis runs the ruler over the first six months of polling and comes out wondering where all the bad vibes are coming from. When politics is toxic, he argues, the progressive side of politics loses.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 12, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,830 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

14/5/12

2 weeks ago

28/5/12

Last week

4/6/12

This week

12/6/12

Liberal

47%

47%

47%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

50%

50%

50%

49%

Labor

38.0%

30%

33%

33%

32%

Greens

11.8%

11%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

7%

7%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

57%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

43%

43%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Approval of Julia Gillard

Jun 12, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

 

19 Jul 2010

20 Dec 2010

14 Mar

2011

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

16 Jan 2012

13 Feb

12 Mar

16 Apr

14 May

12 Jun

Total approve

52%

43%

41%

34%

28%

34%

37%

36%

32%

32%

31%

32%

Total disapprove

30%

40%

46%

54%

64%

54%

52%

53%

61%

58%

60%

56%

Strongly approve

11%

10%

7%

6%

5%

6%

6%

6%

8%

7%

5%

6%

Approve

41%

33%

34%

28%

23%

28%

31%

30%

24%

25%

26%

26%

Disapprove

17%

24%

22%

29%

28%

25%

27%

26%

29%

31%

26%

22%

Strongly disapprove

13%

16%

24%

25%

36%

29%

25%

27%

32%

27%

34%

34%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

13%

8%

11%

12%

11%

7%

10%

10%

12%

Julia Gillard’s approval rating has improved a little since last month. 32% (up 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 56% (down 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -29 to -24 over the last 4 weeks.

74% of Labor voters approve (up 5%) and 16% disapprove (down 8%).

By gender – men 32% approve/57% disapprove, women 32% approve/54% disapprove.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Jun 12, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

 

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

2010

20 Dec 2010

14 Mar

2011

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

16 Jan 2012

13 Feb

12 Mar

16 Apr

14 May

12 Jun

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

38%

39%

32%

35%

35%

36%

38%

36%

32%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

47%

48%

50%

53%

51%

53%

52%

50%

53%

54%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

7%

6%

8%

6%

7%

6%

7%

7%

7%

6%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

31%

32%

31%

26%

28%

29%

29%

31%

29%

26%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

24%

25%

23%

25%

25%

23%

23%

23%

24%

24%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

23%

27%

28%

26%

30%

29%

27%

29%

30%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

16%

15%

11%

14%

13%

12%

12%

13%

11%

13%

Tony Abbott’s approval rating has declined a little over the last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 54% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -22 over the last 4 weeks.

67% (down 4%) of Coalition voters approve and 22% (up 3%) disapprove.

By gender – men 35% approve/56% disapprove, women 30% approve/52% disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Jun 12, 2012

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5 Jul 2010

14 Mar 2011

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

16 Jan 2012

13 Feb

12 Mar

16 Apr

14 May

12 Jun

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

53%

44%

41%

36%

39%

39%

41%

40%

38%

38%

37%

83%

4%

66%

Tony Abbott

26%

33%

36%

40%

35%

36%

34%

37%

36%

37%

37%

3%

78%

4%

Don’t know

21%

23%

24%

24%

26%

25%

25%

23%

25%

24%

26%

14%

18%

30%

37% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (no change) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men prefer Tony Abbott 38%/35% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/35%.

Approval of Overseas Workers

Jun 12, 2012

Q. The Federal Government recently gave approval to Gina Rinehart’s mining company to bring in 1,700 overseas workers. Do you approve or disapprove of overseas workers being brought in to work in Australia’s mining industry?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

16%

20%

19%

10%

Total disapprove

60%

55%

61%

58%

Strongly approve

3%

3%

3%

5%

Approve

13%

17%

16%

5%

Neither approve nor disapprove

20%

23%

18%

30%

Disapprove

25%

27%

25%

30%

Strongly disapprove

35%

28%

36%

28%

Don’t know

5%

3%

2%

2%

 16% approve of the Government’s approval for Gina Rinehart’s mining company to bring in 1,700 overseas workers and 60% disapprove.

A majority of all voter groups disapproved.

Highest approval came from men (20%), full-time workers (20%) and respondents aged 65+ (21%).

 

Reason for Bringing in Overseas Workers

Jun 12, 2012

Q. Why do you think mining companies would bring in overseas workers for Australia’s mines?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Australia doesn’t have enough skilled workers

18%

20%

18%

19%

Australians don’t want to work in the mining industry

17%

17%

18%

18%

It is cheaper to bring in overseas workers

59%

60%

58%

58%

Don’t know

6%

3%

5%

5%

59% think that mining companies bring in overseas workers because it is cheaper, 18% think Australia doesn’t have enough skilled workers and 17% think Australians don’t want to work in the mining industry.

Views were similar across all voter and demographic groups.

Mining Investment

Jun 12, 2012

Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Labour costs and taxes threaten the future of mining investment in Australia

32%

19%

47%

16%

Mining companies want Australian resources and they will continue to invest here despite labour costs and taxes

49%

62%

39%

69%

Don’t know

20%

19%

14%

15%

49% agree with the statement that mining companies want Australian resources and they will continue to invest here despite labour costs and taxes and 32% agree that labour costs and taxes threaten the future of mining investment in Australia.

Those most likely to agree that labour costs and taxes threaten the future of mining investment in Australia were Liberal/National voters (47%) and residents of Queensland (41%).

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