Creating a Climate for Change on Carbon

Mar 12, 2012

It’s only months until a price on carbon takes affect so here are some clues from the polling to help Labor though the difficult times ahead.


Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 12, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,902 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Liberal

44%

46%

47%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

34%

32%

32%

31%

Greens

11.8%

10%

11%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

8%

9%

10%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

56%

56%

57%

Labor

50.1%

46%

44%

44%

43%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Mar 12, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

 

19 Jul 2010

20 Dec 2010

14 Mar

2011

14 June

12 Sept

17 Oct

14 Nov

12 Dec

16 Jan 2012

13 Feb

12 Mar

Total approve

52%

43%

41%

34%

28%

34%

37%

34%

37%

36%

32%

Total disapprove

30%

40%

46%

54%

64%

59%

55%

54%

52%

53%

61%

Strongly approve

11%

10%

7%

6%

5%

7%

8%

6%

6%

6%

8%

Approve

41%

33%

34%

28%

23%

27%

29%

28%

31%

30%

24%

Disapprove

17%

24%

22%

29%

28%

27%

25%

25%

27%

26%

29%

Strongly disapprove

13%

16%

24%

25%

36%

32%

30%

29%

25%

27%

32%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

13%

8%

7%

9%

11%

12%

11%

7%

Julia Gillard’s approval rating has dropped substantially since last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 61% (up 8%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -29 over the last 4 weeks. This is her lowest rating since September.

75% of Labor voters approve (down 4%) and 20% disapprove (up 6%).

By gender – men 32% approve/62% disapprove, women 32% approve/60% disapprove.

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Approval of Tony Abbott

Mar 12, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

2010

20 Dec 2010

14 Mar

2011

14 June

12 Sept

17 Oct

14 Nov

12 Dec

16 Jan 2012

13 Feb

12 Mar

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

38%

39%

40%

36%

32%

35%

35%

36%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

47%

48%

50%

51%

52%

53%

51%

53%

52%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

7%

6%

8%

8%

6%

6%

7%

6%

7%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

31%

32%

31%

32%

30%

26%

28%

29%

29%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

24%

25%

23%

23%

26%

25%

25%

23%

23%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

23%

27%

28%

26%

28%

26%

30%

29%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

16%

15%

11%

9%

12%

14%

13%

12%

12%

Tony Abbott’s approval rating has changed little over the last month. 36% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 52% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -18 to -16 over the last 4 weeks.

70% (up 3%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (no change) disapprove.

By gender – men 37% approve/54% disapprove, women 36% approve/49% disapprove.

Comments »

Better Prime Minister

Mar 12, 2012

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5 Jul 2010

14 Mar

14 June

12 Sept

17 Oct

14 Nov

12 Dec

16 Jan 2012

13 Feb

12 Mar

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

53%

44%

41%

36%

38%

41%

39%

39%

41%

40%

84%

6%

74%

Tony Abbott

26%

33%

36%

40%

39%

36%

35%

36%

34%

37%

4%

76%

5%

Don’t know

21%

23%

24%

24%

23%

24%

26%

25%

25%

23%

12%

18%

21%

40% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (up 3%) prefer Tony Abbott – a net change from +7% to +3% for Julia Gillard.

Both men and women prefer Julia Gillard 40%/37%.

Comments »

Approval of Bob Carr

Mar 12, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of former NSW Premier Bob Carr going into the Senate and taking up the position of Foreign Minister?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

37%

60%

23%

39%

Total disapprove

36%

15%

54%

17%

Strongly approve

7%

17%

2%

7%

Approve

30%

43%

21%

32%

Disapprove

19%

10%

27%

11%

Strongly disapprove

17%

5%

27%

6%

Don’t know

27%

25%

22%

45%

Opinions of the former NSW Premier Bob Carr going into the Senate and taking up the position of Foreign Minister were split – 37% approved and 36% disapproved.

60% of Labor voters approved and 54% of Liberal/National voters disapproved.

Respondents from New South Wales were a little more positive – 43% approve and 37% disapprove.

Comments »

Using Wealth to Influence Opinion and Policy

Mar 12, 2012

QA. The Treasurer Wayne Swan has said some of Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests. Do you agree or disagree with the Treasurer’s statement? *

QB. Do you agree or disagree that some of Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests. *

 

A. Wayne Swan statement

B. Unattributed statement

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total agree

58%

78%

36%

89%

60%

67%

55%

75%

Total disagree

26%

6%

51%

2%

24%

18%

30%

14%

Strongly agree

24%

38%

9%

54%

27%

36%

15%

50%

Agree

34%

40%

27%

35%

33%

31%

40%

25%

Disagree

15%

4%

29%

2%

12%

5%

15%

3%

Strongly disagree

11%

2%

22%

12%

13%

15%

11%

Don’t know

16%

16%

14%

9%

15%

15%

16%

11%

* each question was asked of half the total sample.

There was similar majority agreement with this statement – that some of Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests – whether or not it was attributed to Wayne Swan. When attributed to Wayne Swan 58% agreed and 26% disagreed. When unattributed, 60% agreed and 24% disagreed.

When attributed to Wayne Swan, 78% of Labor voters and 89% of Greens voters agreed but 51% of Liberal/National voters disagreed.

When unattributed, a majority of voters of all parties agreed – although Labor and Greens voters not as strongly.

Comments »

Opinion of Mining Tax

Mar 12, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed mining tax (called the Minerals Resource Rent Tax) on large profits of mining companies?

 

12 Jul 2010

5 Sep 2011

21 Nov

20 Feb 2012

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

50%

46%

51%

55%

52%

76%

33%

79%

Total disapprove

28%

34%

33%

28%

34%

12%

55%

12%

Strongly approve

13%

18%

18%

23%

20%

36%

7%

51%

Approve

37%

28%

33%

32%

32%

40%

26%

28%

Disapprove

18%

18%

20%

17%

22%

9%

34%

10%

Strongly disapprove

10%

16%

13%

11%

12%

3%

21%

2%

Don’t know

22%

19%

15%

17%

14%

13%

12%

8%

52% approve the Government’s proposed mining tax and 34% disapprove. This represents a weakening in support over the last 3 weeks (from net +27% to net +18%) but a similar result to that of November 2011.

Labor voters (76%) and Greens voters (79%) strongly support the tax – but Liberal/National voters disapprove 55% to 33%.

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