Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 12, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,905 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

15/10/12

2 weeks ago

29/10/12

Last week

7/11/12

This week

12/11/12

Liberal

44%

44%

43%

42%

National

3%

4%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

48%

46%

45%

Labor

38.0%

36%

36%

37%

37%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

7%

8%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

53%

54%

53%

52%

Labor

50.1%

47%

46%

47%

48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Approval of Julia Gillard

Nov 12, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

 

19 Jul 2010

20 Dec

14 Mar

2011

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 2012

12 Jun

10 Sept

15 Oct

12 Nov

Total approve

52%

43%

41%

34%

28%

34%

32%

32%

35%

41%

41%

Total disapprove

30%

40%

46%

54%

64%

54%

61%

56%

54%

51%

49%

Strongly approve

11%

10%

7%

6%

5%

6%

8%

6%

7%

9%

7%

Approve

41%

33%

34%

28%

23%

28%

24%

26%

28%

32%

34%

Disapprove

17%

24%

22%

29%

28%

25%

29%

22%

27%

24%

25%

Strongly disapprove

13%

16%

24%

25%

36%

29%

32%

34%

27%

27%

24%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

13%

8%

11%

7%

12%

11%

8%

10%

41% (no change) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 49% (down 2%) disapprove – a 2-point change in net rating from -10 to -8. This is Julia Gillard’s best approval rating since May 2011.

85% of Labor voters approve (down 2%) and 8% disapprove (down 1%).

By gender – men 37% approve/53% disapprove, women 44% approve/44% disapprove.  In net terms this represents a decline with men from -14 to -16 and an improvement with women from -4 to 0.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Nov 12, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

 

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

 

20 Dec

14 Mar

2011

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 2012

12 Jun

10 Sept

15 Oct

12 Nov

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

38%

39%

32%

36%

32%

32%

37%

33%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

47%

48%

50%

53%

52%

54%

55%

54%

58%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

7%

6%

8%

6%

7%

6%

6%

9%

6%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

31%

32%

31%

26%

29%

26%

26%

28%

27%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

24%

25%

23%

25%

23%

24%

26%

23%

28%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

23%

27%

28%

29%

30%

29%

31%

30%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

16%

15%

11%

14%

12%

13%

13%

9%

10%

Tony Abbott’s approval rating has dropped over the last month. 33% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 58% (up 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -25 over the last 4 weeks. This is Tony Abbott’s lowest rating since he became Opposition Leader.

65% (down 9%) of Coalition voters approve and 29% (up 7%) disapprove.

By gender – men 36% approve/56% disapprove, women 29% approve/59% disapprove. In net terms this represents a decline with men from -16 to -20 and with women from -19 to -30.

Better Prime Minister

Nov 12, 2012

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5 Jul 2010

14 Mar 2011

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 2012

12 Jun

10 Sept

15 Oct

12 Nov

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

53%

44%

41%

36%

39%

40%

37%

40%

43%

45%

86%

6%

81%

Tony Abbott

26%

33%

36%

40%

35%

37%

37%

37%

36%

32%

4%

71%

4%

Don’t know

21%

23%

24%

24%

26%

23%

26%

24%

20%

23%

10%

23%

15%

45% (up 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 32% (down 4%) prefer Tony Abbott. This is Julia Gillard’s best result since February 2011.

Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/36% and women prefer Julia Gillard 49%/28%. Compared to last month’s figures, Julia Gillard’s margin over Tony Abbott has changed 4 points in her favour among men (from 40%/40%) and 7 points among women (from 47%/33%).

Most important reform

Nov 12, 2012

Q. The Federal Government are proposing to implement a number of reforms , which will require funding of billions of dollars. Which of the following reforms do you think is most important?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

National disability insurance scheme

16%

20%

16%

10%

Extra school funding recommended by the Gonski Review

31%

35%

28%

41%

Increased resources for aged care

29%

25%

37%

20%

Returning water to the Murray River

12%

12%

9%

18%

Don’t know

12%

8%

10%

9%

31% think that the Government’s most important proposed reform is extra school funding as recommended by the Gonski Review and 29% favour increased resources for aged care.

Extra school, funding is supported more by Labor voters, (35%), Greens voters (41%) and those aged under 45 (40%).

Increased resources for aged care is favoured by Liberal/National voters (37%) and those aged 45+ (42%).

Preferred option for reducing spending

Nov 12, 2012

Q. If the Government decided to reduce spending in other areas to pay for these reforms, which of the following options would you favour?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Reduce the Baby Bonus to $2000 or eliminate it for people earning over $75,000

53%

52%

56%

55%

Eliminate Family Tax Benefit A for families earning over $75,000

13%

15%

12%

12%

Increase taxation of family trusts

13%

16%

12%

14%

Remove the private health insurance rebate altogether

4%

4%

4%

6%

None of them

11%

7%

14%

1%

Don’t know

6%

6%

2%

11%

53% favour reducing the Baby Bonus to $2000 or eliminating it for people earning over $75,000 if the Government decided to reduce spending to pay for reforms. More than half of all voter groups support this measure. It is favoured by 57% of women and 49% of men.

43% of those aged under 35 support it compared to 62% of those aged 45+.

Only 4% favour removing the private health insurance rebate altogether.

Preferred option for raising revenue

Nov 12, 2012

Q. If the Government decided to increase its revenue to pay for these reforms, which of the following options would you favour?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Increase income taxes for those on high incomes

46%

53%

40%

51%

Increase the GST rate to 11 or 12%

10%

11%

12%

14%

Extend the GST to goods and services like food and health which are currently exempt

5%

4%

6%

8%

Increase income taxes overall

5%

6%

5%

5%

None of them

27%

20%

32%

14%

Don’t know

7%

6%

4%

7%

46% favour increasing income taxes for those on high incomes if the Government decided to increase its revenue to pay for reforms.

Increasing the GST rate (10%) has greater support than extending the GST to food and health (5%).

Increasing income taxes for those on high incomes is favoured by 53% of those earning less than $1,600 pw compared to 35% of those earning over $1,600 pw.

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