Federal politics – voting intention

May 13, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,945 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

15/4/13

2 weeks ago

29/4/13

Last week

6/5/13

This week

13/5/13

Liberal

44%

45%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

4%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

34%

34%

33%

34%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

10%

10%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

55%

56%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

45%

44%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Approval of Julia Gillard

May 13, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

 

19 Jul 2010

20 Dec

14 June 2011

12 Dec

12 Jun 2012

10 Dec

14 Jan 2013

11 Feb

11 Mar

15 Apr

13 May

Total approve

52%

43%

34%

34%

32%

37%

41%

36%

36%

34%

38%

Total disapprove

30%

40%

54%

54%

56%

53%

49%

55%

56%

56%

54%

Strongly approve

11%

10%

6%

6%

6%

10%

9%

7%

8%

8%

10%

Approve

41%

33%

28%

28%

26%

27%

32%

29%

28%

26%

28%

Disapprove

17%

24%

29%

25%

22%

25%

23%

25%

24%

23%

23%

Strongly disapprove

13%

16%

25%

29%

34%

28%

26%

30%

32%

33%

31%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

11%

12%

11%

10%

9%

9%

9%

9%

38% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (down 2%) disapprove – a 6-point change in net rating from -22 to -16 over the last 4 weeks.

78% of Labor voters approve (up 4%) and 16% disapprove (down 2%).

By gender – men 36% approve/57% disapprove, women 38% approve/51% disapprove.  In net terms this represents no change with men and an improvement with women (from -25 to -13).

Approval of Tony Abbott

May 13, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

 

20 Dec

14 June  2011

12 Dec

12 Jun 2012

10 Dec

14 Jan 2013

11 Feb

11 Mar

15 Apr

13 May

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

32%

32%

33%

33%

36%

37%

37%

40%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

48%

53%

54%

56%

57%

53%

51%

52%

50%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

6%

6%

6%

8%

8%

7%

7%

8%

9%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

32%

26%

26%

25%

25%

29%

30%

29%

31%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

25%

25%

24%

25%

27%

22%

22%

24%

18%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

28%

30%

31%

30%

31%

29%

28%

32%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

15%

14%

13%

12%

10%

11%

12%

10%

11%

40% (up 3%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 50% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -15 to -10 over the last 4 weeks, Tony Abbott’s best rating since July 2011.

77% (up 5%) of Coalition voters approve and 13% (down 8%) disapprove.

By gender – men 42% approve/49% disapprove, women 37% approve/50% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -9 to -7 and with women from -22 to -13.

Better Prime Minister

May 13, 2013

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5 Jul 2010

14 June

2011

12 Dec

12 Jun 2012

10 Dec

14 Jan 2013

11 Feb

11 Mar

15 Apr

13 May

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

53%

41%

39%

37%

43%

42%

39%

39%

37%

39%

86%

2%

76%

Tony Abbott

26%

36%

35%

37%

34%

33%

37%

39%

39%

41%

3%

84%

2%

Don’t know

21%

24%

26%

26%

23%

24%

24%

22%

24%

20%

11%

13%

22%

39% (up 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 41% (up 2%) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men prefer Tony Abbott 44%/35% and women prefer Julia Gillard 43%/38%.

NDIS

May 13, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s decision to implement the National Disability Insurance Scheme to be funded by increasing the Medicare levy from 1.5% to 2%?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

57%

77%

45%

75%

Total disapprove

30%

14%

42%

18%

Strongly approve

20%

37%

6%

40%

Approve

37%

40%

39%

35%

Disapprove

17%

10%

24%

12%

Strongly disapprove

13%

4%

18%

6%

Don’t know

13%

9%

12%

7%

57% approve and 30% disapprove the Government’s decision to implement the National Disability Insurance Scheme to be funded by increasing the Medicare levy from 1.5% to 2%.

A substantial majority of Labor (77%) and Greens voters (75%) approve but Liberal/National voters are split 45% approve/42% disapprove.

Respondents most likely to approve were aged 55+ (68% approve/22% disapprove) and those earning less than $600pw (72%/19%).

House of Representatives

May 13, 2013

Q. Thinking about the House of Representatives, which of the following do you think would provide the best Government for Australia?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The governing party has an absolute majority in the House of Representatives

49%

47%

61%

25%

The independents and minor parties hold the balance of power in the House of Representatives

25%

28%

18%

56%

Don’t know

26%

24%

21%

19%

49% think that the best Government would be if the governing party has an absolute majority in the House of Representatives while 25% think the independents and minor parties should hold the balance of power.

A majority (56%) of Greens voters would prefer to see the independents and minor parties should hold the balance of power while a majority (61%) of Liberal/National voters think the governing party should have an absolute majority.

The Senate

May 13, 2013

Q. Now thinking about the Senate, which of the following do you think would provide the best Government for Australia?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The Government also has a majority in the Senate

32%

36%

39%

18%

The Opposition has a majority in the Senate

8%

6%

11%

3%

The independents and minor parties hold the balance of power in the Senate

25%

31%

15%

54%

It doesn’t matter who has control or balance of power in the Senate

7%

4%

8%

3%

Don’t know

28%

23%

27%

23%

32% think that the Government should also have a majority in the Senate while 25% think the independents and minor parties hold the balance of power. 8% think the Opposition should have a majority.

Liberal/National voters were a little more likely to favour the Government having a majority in the Senate (39%) while Greens (54%) and Labor (31%) were more likely to favour the independents and minor parties holding the balance of power.

Rating of Independents

May 13, 2013

Q. Regardless of how you vote in federal elections, how would you rate the performance of the following Independent MPs in federal parliament?

 

Total good

Total bad

Very Good

Good

Bad

Very Bad

Don’t know

 

Oct 11

Total Good

Oct 11 Total Bad

Rob Oakeshott

30%

30%

6%

24%

14%

16%

41%

23%

34%

Tony Windsor

29%

29%

7%

22%

14%

15%

42%

23%

32%

Andrew Wilkie

28%

30%

4%

24%

17%

13%

42%

24%

34%

Bob Katter

26%

41%

4%

22%

19%

22%

34%

27%

36%

There were mixed opinions about the performance of the independents in Parliament. Respondents were similarly split over the performances of Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie but somewhat more negative about Bob Katter.

In NSW, Rob Oakeshott was rated 30% good/37% bad and Tony Windsor 29% good/36% bad. In Queensland Bob Katter was rated 33% good/36% bad.

Since this question was last asked in October 2011, the ratings of Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie have improved a little while Bob Katter’s has declined.

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