Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 13, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,899 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

15/7/13

2 weeks ago

29/7/13

Last week

5/8/13

This week

13/8/13

Liberal

 

42%

41%

40%

40%

National

4%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

46%

44%

43%

43%

Labor

38.0%

39%

39%

38%

39%

Greens

11.8%

7%

9%

9%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

8%

10%

10%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

15/7/13

2 weeks ago

29/7/13

Last week

5/8/13

This week

13/8/13

Liberal National

49.9%

52%

51%

51%

51%

Labor

50.1%

48%

49%

49%

49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Approval of Kevin Rudd

Aug 13, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

 

Julia Gillard

11 Jun 13

 

Kevin Rudd

15 Jul

 

Kevin Rudd

13 Aug

Total approve

37%

50%

45%

Total disapprove

54%

35%

43%

Strongly approve

10%

18%

11%

Approve

27%

32%

34%

Disapprove

21%

15%

21%

Strongly disapprove

33%

20%

22%

Don’t know

9%

16%

12%

Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings have fallen since last measured 4 weeks ago. 45% (down 5%) approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and 43% (up 8%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +15 to +2.

88% of Labor voters approve (up 3%) and 6% disapprove (up 2%).

By gender – men 49% approve/43% disapprove, women 42% approve/43% disapprove.  In net terms this represents a shift with men from +19 to +6 and with women from +10 to -1.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Aug 13, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

 

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

 

20 Dec

14 June  2011

12 Dec

12 Jun 2012

10 Dec

11 Mar 2013

11 Jun

15 Jul

 

13 Aug

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

32%

32%

33%

37%

40%

39%

37%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

48%

53%

54%

56%

51%

49%

51%

51%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

6%

6%

6%

8%

7%

10%

11%

9%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

32%

26%

26%

25%

30%

30%

28%

28%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

25%

25%

24%

25%

22%

17%

21%

21%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

28%

30%

31%

29%

32%

30%

30%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

15%

14%

13%

12%

12%

11%

11%

11%

Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have dropped slightly over the past month. 37% (down 2%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 51% (no change disapprove – a change in net rating from -12 to -14 over the last 4 weeks.

76% (up 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 14% (no change) disapprove.

By gender – men 45% approve/47% disapprove, women 31% approve/55% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -7 to -2 and with women from -16 to -24.

Better Prime Minister

Aug 13, 2013

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott?

 

Gillard/ Abbott

11 Jun 13

 

Rudd/ Abbott

15 Jul 13

 

 

Rudd/ Abbott

13 Aug 13

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard/Kevin Rudd

39%

50%

47%

92%

7%

68%

Tony Abbott

40%

35%

35%

3%

76%

7%

Don’t know

21%

15%

18%

5%

17%

25%

47% (down 3%) believe Kevin Rudd would make the better Prime Minister and 35% (no change) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men prefer Kevin Rudd 47%/39% and women prefer Kevin Rudd 47%/30%.

Australia’s national debt

Aug 13, 2013

Q. Compared to other developed countries, do you think Australia’s national debt is higher, lower or about the same?

 

6 May 13

 

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total higher

25%

25%

15%

37%

18%

Total lower

48%

46%

59%

38%

54%

A lot higher

9%

10%

5%

15%

3%

A little higher

16%

15%

10%

22%

15%

About the same

18%

19%

18%

19%

7%

A little lower

29%

24%

23%

27%

21%

A lot lower

19%

22%

36%

11%

33%

Don’t know

10%

10%

9%

6%

21%

25% think that Australia’s National debt is higher than other developed countries and 46% think it is lower – 19% think it about the same. These figures are very similar to the results when this question was previously asked in May.

A majority of Labor (59%) and Greens voters (54%) think our debt is lower than other countries while Liberal National voters were split – 38% think it is lower and 37% think it is higher.

Those with higher levels of education were more likely to think Australia’s debt was lower – 20% of respondents with university degrees thought it was higher and 53% thought it was lower.

Importance of reducing debt

Aug 13, 2013

Q. Do you think it is more important to reduce Australia’s national debt or to maintain government spending on services and projects?

 

6
May 13

 

 

Total

Vote ALP

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Australia’s debt higher

Australia’s debt about the same

Australia’s debt lower

More important to reduce debt

46%

48%

28%

72%

23%

76%

48%

37%

More important to maintain spending

40%

35%

51%

20%

60%

18%

32%

49%

Don’t know

14%

17%

21%

9%

17%

6%

20%

14%

48% think it is more important to reduce Australia’s debt and 35% think it is more important to maintain Government spending on services and projects. This represents a shift away from maintaining spending since this question was previously asked in May.

51% (down 10%) of Labor voters and 60% (up 1%) of Greens voters favour maintaining spending while 72% (up 5%) of Liberal/National voters think it is more important to reduce debt.

76% of those who think Australia’s debt is higher compared to other countries think we should reduce debt while 49% of those who think our debt is lower think we should maintain spending.

Raise taxes or cut spending

Aug 13, 2013

Q. Do you think the Government should raise taxes or cut spending to reduce the national debt or should they do neither?

 

6 May 13

 

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Raise taxes

13%

6%

7%

3%

14%

Reduce spending

55%

45%

32%

64%

24%

Both

na

21%

21%

21%

22%

Neither

20%

18%

28%

9%

29%

Don’t know

12%

10%

12%

4%

10%

In order to reduce debt, 45% think the Government should reduce spending, 6% think they should raise taxes and 21% think they should do both. 18% think they should do neither.

64% of Liberal/National voters think the Government should reduce spending compared to 32% of Labor voters and 24% of Greens voters.

(Note the category “both” has been added to this question since it was previously asked)

Where Government should reduce spending

Aug 13, 2013

If “Reduce spending” or “both” –

Q. In which of the following areas should the Government reduce spending?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Foreign aid

76%

72%

82%

43%

The arts

70%

65%

76%

29%

Subsidies for business

59%

65%

57%

58%

Private schools

59%

63%

56%

38%

Welfare support

43%

33%

53%

17%

The environment

36%

22%

49%

12%

Defence

34%

36%

30%

68%

Support for manufacturing industries

32%

31%

34%

37%

Border security

18%

18%

17%

43%

Universities

18%

12%

25%

9%

Public transport

14%

11%

18%

14%

Roads

12%

10%

11%

33%

Public schools

9%

7%

12%

12%

Pensions

9%

6%

11%

15%

Health and hospitals

5%

6%

5%

9%

Of those who think spending should be reduced, 76% think spending on foreign aid should be reduced, 70% the arts, 59% subsidies for business and 59% private schools.

The areas least likely to be nominated for spending cuts were health and hospitals, pensions and public schools.