Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 14, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,878 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

17/12/12

This week

14/01/13

Liberal

45%

44%

National

3%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

36%

36%

Greens

11.8%

8%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

54%

Labor

50.1%

45%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Approval of Julia Gillard

Jan 14, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

 

19 Jul 2010

20 Dec

14 Mar

2011

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 2012

12 Jun

10 Sept

10 Dec

14 Jan 2013

Total approve

52%

43%

41%

34%

28%

34%

32%

32%

35%

37%

41%

Total disapprove

30%

40%

46%

54%

64%

54%

61%

56%

54%

53%

49%

Strongly approve

11%

10%

7%

6%

5%

6%

8%

6%

7%

10%

9%

Approve

41%

33%

34%

28%

23%

28%

24%

26%

28%

27%

32%

Disapprove

17%

24%

22%

29%

28%

25%

29%

22%

27%

25%

23%

Strongly disapprove

13%

16%

24%

25%

36%

29%

32%

34%

27%

28%

26%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

13%

8%

11%

7%

12%

11%

11%

10%

41% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 49% (down 4%) disapprove – an 8-point change in net rating from -16 to -8.

87% of Labor voters approve (up 5%) and 7% disapprove (down 6%).

By gender – men 40% approve/53% disapprove, women 42% approve/45% disapprove.  In net terms this represents an improvement with men from -21 to -13 and with women from -10 to -3.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Jan 14, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

 

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

 

20 Dec

14 Mar

2011

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 2012

12 Jun

10 Sept

10 Dec

14 Jan 2013

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

38%

39%

32%

36%

32%

32%

33%

33%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

47%

48%

50%

53%

52%

54%

55%

56%

57%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

7%

6%

8%

6%

7%

6%

6%

8%

8%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

31%

32%

31%

26%

29%

26%

26%

25%

25%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

24%

25%

23%

25%

23%

24%

26%

25%

27%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

23%

27%

28%

29%

30%

29%

31%

30%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

16%

15%

11%

14%

12%

13%

13%

12%

10%

33% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 57% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -23 to -24 over the last 5 weeks.

62% (down 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 31% (up 1%) disapprove.

By gender – men 38% approve/53% disapprove, women 29% approve/60% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -18 to -15 and with women from -28 to -31.

Better Prime Minister

Jan 14, 2013

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5 Jul 2010

14 Mar 2011

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 2012

12 Jun

10 Sept

10 Dec

14 Jan 2013

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

53%

44%

41%

36%

39%

40%

37%

40%

43%

42%

89%

5%

84%

Tony Abbott

26%

33%

36%

40%

35%

37%

37%

37%

34%

33%

1%

73%

3%

Don’t know

21%

23%

24%

24%

26%

23%

26%

24%

23%

24%

10%

22%

14%

42% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% (down 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men prefer Julia Gillard 39%/38% and women prefer Julia Gillard 46%/29%.

Voluntary voting

Jan 14, 2013

Q. Voting in Federal and State elections in Australia is compulsory. Would you support or oppose making voting voluntary at Federal and State elections?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Support

40%

34%

43%

40%

Oppose

49%

56%

49%

53%

Don’t know

11%

9%

8%

8%

40% support making voting voluntary at Federal and State elections and 49% oppose.

Highest support for voluntary voting was shown by Liberal/National voters (43%), respondents who don’t know which party they would vote for (48%), full-time workers (45%) and respondents aged 25-34 (49%).

Highest opposition to voluntary voting was shown by Labor voters (56%), and respondents aged 55+ (58%).

Likelihood of voting

Jan 14, 2013

Q. If voting at elections was voluntary, how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Would definitely vote

58%

61%

67%

67%

Would probably vote

25%

25%

23%

23%

Probably wouldn’t vote

9%

8%

5%

4%

Definitely wouldn’t vote

4%

4%

2%

2%

Don’t know

5%

2%

3%

3%

If voting at elections was voluntary, 83% said they would definitely or probably vote in the next Federal election – 13% said they would probably or definitely not vote.

Those least likely to vote were aged under 45 (17%) and respondents who did not know which party they would vote for (38%).

Voting age

Jan 14, 2013

Q. Would you support or oppose lowering the voting age from 18 to 16?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Support

13%

17%

10%

24%

Oppose

78%

71%

85%

64%

No opinion

9%

11%

4%

12%

Only 13% support lowering the voting age from 18 years to 16 years and 78% oppose.

Support was highest among Greens voters (24%) and respondents aged 25-34 (25%).

Preferred voting system

Jan 14, 2013

Q. Which of the following voting systems would you prefer when voting for the Federal House of Representatives.

  • A preferential voting system where voters rank all candidates in order of preference.
  • An optional preferential system where voters can rank one, some, or all candidates in order of preference.
  • A “first past the post” system, where voters only vote for one candidate and the candidate with the most votes wins.
 

11 Jul 11

Total

14 Jan 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Preferential

22%

23%

29%

20%

32%

Optional preferential

26%

25%

26%

23%

43%

First past the post

44%

44%

40%

52%

24%

Don’t know

7%

8%

5%

5%

1%

Of the three voting options given, 44% favoured “first past the post”, 25% optional preferential and 23% the current preferential system – almost no change since the question was last asked in July 2011.

Optional preferential was most preferred by those aged under 35 (30%) while older groups strongly favoured first past the post (52% of aged 45+).

“First past the post” was preferred by 52% Liberal/National voters and 43% of Greens voters preferred optional preferential.

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