Federal politics – voting intention

Apr 15, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,897 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

18/3/13

2 weeks ago

2/4/13

Last week

8/4/13

This week

15/4/13

Liberal

45%

47%

47%

44%

National

2%

2%

2%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

49%

49%

48%

Labor

38.0%

35%

31%

32%

34%

Greens

11.8%

9%

11%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

56%

56%

55%

Labor

50.1%

46%

44%

44%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.


 

Approval of Julia Gillard

Apr 15, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

 

19
Jul
10

20
Dec

14 June

12 Dec

12
Mar
12

12
Jun

10
Sep

10
Dec

14
Jan
13

11
Feb

11
Mar

15
Apr

Total approve

52%

43%

34%

34%

32%

32%

35%

37%

41%

36%

36%

34%

Total disapprove

30%

40%

54%

54%

61%

56%

54%

53%

49%

55%

56%

56%

Strongly approve

11%

10%

6%

6%

8%

6%

7%

10%

9%

7%

8%

8%

Approve

41%

33%

28%

28%

24%

26%

28%

27%

32%

29%

28%

26%

Disapprove

17%

24%

29%

25%

29%

22%

27%

25%

23%

25%

24%

23%

Strongly disapprove

13%

16%

25%

29%

32%

34%

27%

28%

26%

30%

32%

33%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

11%

7%

12%

11%

11%

10%

9%

9%

9%

34% (down 2%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 56% (no change) disapprove – a 2-point change in net rating from -20 to -22 over the last 5 weeks.

74% of Labor voters approve (down 1%) and 18% disapprove (up 2%).

By gender – men 36% approve/57% disapprove, women 32% approve/57% disapprove.  In net terms this represents an improvement with men from -27 to -21 and a decline with women (from -14 to -25).

Approval of Tony Abbott

Apr 15, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18
Jan
10

5
Jul

 

20 Dec

14
Jun

12 Dec

12 Mar 12

12
Jun

10 Sep

10 Dec

14
Jan
13

11 Feb

11 Mar

15
Apr

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

32%

36%

32%

32%

33%

33%

36%

37%

37%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

48%

53%

52%

54%

55%

56%

57%

53%

51%

52%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

6%

6%

7%

6%

6%

8%

8%

7%

7%

8%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

32%

26%

29%

26%

26%

25%

25%

29%

30%

29%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

25%

25%

23%

24%

26%

25%

27%

22%

22%

24%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

28%

29%

30%

29%

31%

30%

31%

29%

28%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

15%

14%

12%

13%

13%

12%

10%

11%

12%

10%

37% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 52% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -14 to -15 over the last 5 weeks.

72% (up 3%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (up 1%) disapprove.

By gender – men 41% approve/50% disapprove, women 33% approve/55% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -10 to -9 and with women from -18 to -22.

Better Prime Minister

Apr 15, 2013

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5
Jul
10

14 June

12 Dec

12 Mar 12

12 Jun

10 Sept

10 Dec

14
Jan
13

11 Feb

11 Mar

15
Apr

Vote ALP

Vote Lib

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

53%

41%

39%

40%

37%

40%

43%

42%

39%

39%

37%

81%

6%

62%

Tony Abbott

26%

36%

35%

37%

37%

37%

34%

33%

37%

39%

39%

6%

78%

6%

Don’t know

21%

24%

26%

23%

26%

24%

23%

24%

24%

22%

24%

13%

16%

32%

37% (down 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% (no change) prefer Tony Abbott. This is the first time since August 2012 that Tony Abbott has been preferred over Julia Gillard.

Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/36% and women prefer Julia Gillard 38%/36%.

Superannuation

Apr 15, 2013

Q. Currently there is no tax on superannuation earnings after retirement. The Federal Government has proposed that earnings over $100,000 a year from superannuation assets will be taxed at 15%. It is expected that this will affect about 16,000 people who have more than $2 million in superannuation.  Do you support or oppose this proposal?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

40%

58%

29%

47%

Total oppose

46%

34%

61%

39%

Strongly support

15%

25%

9%

19%

Support

25%

33%

20%

28%

Oppose

21%

20%

26%

22%

Strongly oppose

25%

14%

35%

17%

Don’t know

13%

9%

10%

13%

40% support the Government’s proposal to tax superannuation earnings of more then $100,000 per year and 46% oppose.

Older respondents were more likely to support the proposal – for those aged 55+, 48% supported and 42% oppose while for those aged 35-54, 38% supported and 48% opposed.

By income, those earning more than $1,600pw were opposed (38% support/54% oppose) while those earning $600-1,000 pw were more likely to support (54% support/35% oppose).

Awareness of Assange

Apr 15, 2013

Q. The founder of Wikileaks, Julian Assange, faces extradition from the UK to Sweden for an investigation into sexual assault allegations. In Sweden he will be detained while the investigation continues, and he may be extradited to the United States to face charges relating to WikiLeaks’s release of US diplomatic cables. How much have you read or heard about Julian Assange?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

A lot

16%

18%

13%

31%

Some

38%

37%

41%

41%

A little

35%

35%

37%

26%

Nothing at all

8%

8%

8%

3%

Don’t know

3%

2%

1%

54% said they had read heard a lot or some about Julian Assange. Only 8% had read or heard nothing at all.

Those most likely to have heard a lot of some about Julian Assange were men (60%), aged 55+ (59%) and Greens voters (72%).

Assange for the Senate

Apr 15, 2013

Q. Julian Assange, has announced he will run for the Senate in Victoria in the next Federal election and will also run candidates in other states. How likely would Julian Assange be to make a positive contribution to Federal Parliament?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Very likely

12%

13%

9%

21%

Somewhat likely

20%

24%

18%

40%

Not very likely

25%

25%

27%

18%

Not at all likely

25%

25%

31%

15%

Don’t know

17%

13%

16%

7%

32% think it is very or somewhat likely that Julian Assange would make a positive contribution to Federal Parliament.

Those most likely to think he would make a positive contribution were men (38%), aged 25-44 (42%) and Greens voters (61%).

58% of those who had read or heard a lot about Julian Assange, and 42% of those who had read or heard some thought it was likely he would make a positive contribution to Parliament.

NBN

Apr 15, 2013

Q. The Government’s NBN (National Broadband Network) is a fast, high capacity fibre network to the home reaching 93% of Australian homes and businesses.

The Coalition has proposed a broadband plan in which the NBN would be replaced with broadband fibre to local “nodes” (or exchanges) and the existing telephone copper network would connect the rest of the way to homes. This would mean slower broadband speeds than the NBN but cost less to build. Do you support the Government’s or the Coalition’s broadband policy?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Support Government’s policy

54%

83%

31%

74%

Support the Coalition’s policy

23%

4%

46%

7%

Don’t know

23%

12%

23%

19%

54% support the Government’s broadband policy and 23% support the Coalition’s policy.

For those aged 18-34, 61% support the Government’s policy and 15% support the Coalition’s. 51% of those aged 35-54 and 49% of those aged 55+ support the Government’s policy.

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