Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 15, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,879 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

17/6/13

2 weeks ago

1/7/13

Last week

8/7/13

This week

15/7/13

Liberal

 

44%

43%

42%

42%

National

3%

3%

4%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

46%

46%

46%

Labor

38.0%

35%

36%

38%

39%

Greens

11.8%

8%

9%

8%

7%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

7%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

17/6/13

2 weeks ago

1/7/13

Last week

8/7/13

This week

15/7/13

Liberal National

49.9%

54%

53%

52%

52%

Labor

50.1%

46%

47%

48%

48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Approval of Kevin Rudd

Jul 15, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

 

Kevin Rudd

31 May 10

Julia Gillard

5 Jul 10

 

Julia Gillard

11 Jun 13

Kevin Rudd

15 Jul 13

Total approve

41%

48%

37%

50%

Total disapprove

47%

27%

54%

35%

Strongly approve

7%

14%

10%

18%

Approve

34%

34%

27%

32%

Disapprove

25%

13%

21%

15%

Strongly disapprove

22%

14%

33%

20%

Don’t know

12%

26%

9%

16%

Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings are substantially higher than Julia Gillard’s as last measured 5 weeks ago. 50% (up 13%) approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and 35% (down 19%) disapprove – a net rating of +15 compared to Julia Gillard’s -17.

85% of Labor voters approve (up 6%) and 4% disapprove (down 10%).

By gender – men 54% approve/35% disapprove, women 44% approve/34% disapprove.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Jul 15, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

 

18
Jan
10

5 Jul

20 Dec

14 June  11

12 Dec

12
Jun
12

10 Dec

14
Jan
13

11
Feb

11 Mar

11 Jun

 

15 Jul

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

32%

32%

33%

33%

36%

37%

40%

39%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

48%

53%

54%

56%

57%

53%

51%

49%

51%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

6%

6%

6%

8%

8%

7%

7%

10%

11%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

32%

26%

26%

25%

25%

29%

30%

30%

28%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

25%

25%

24%

25%

27%

22%

22%

17%

21%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

28%

30%

31%

30%

31%

29%

32%

30%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

15%

14%

13%

12%

10%

11%

12%

11%

11%

Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have dropped slightly over the past month. 39% (down 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 51% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -9 to -12 over the last 5 weeks.

75% (down 5%) of Coalition voters approve and 14% (up 3%) disapprove.

By gender – men 43% approve/50% disapprove, women 35% approve/51% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -3 to -7 and with women from -17 to -16.

Better Prime Minister

Jul 15, 2013

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott?

 

Rudd/
Abbott 21 Jun 10

Gillard/ Abbott
5
Jul 10

Gillard/ Abbott
11
Jun 13

 

Rudd/ Abbott
15
Jul 13
Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard/Kevin Rudd

47%

53%

39%

50%

94%

10%

84%

Tony Abbott

30%

26%

40%

35%

2%

72%

6%

Don’t know

23%

21%

21%

15%

3%

18%

10%

50% believe Kevin Rudd would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott.

Men prefer Kevin Rudd 51%/36% and women prefer Kevin Rudd 49%/33%.

Election of Labor Party leader

Jul 15, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of Kevin Rudd’s proposal for the leader of the Labor Party to be elected by both the Members of Parliament and the party members?

 

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

56%

73%

45%

64%

Total disapprove

19%

9%

30%

11%

Strongly approve

18%

33%

7%

29%

Approve

38%

40%

38%

35%

Disapprove

11%

8%

14%

7%

Strongly disapprove

8%

1%

16%

4%

Don’t know

25%

18%

25%

25%

56% approve of Kevin Rudd’s proposal for election of the party leader and 19% disapprove. 73% of Labor voters approve.

State of the economy

Jul 15, 2013

Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?

 

 

28 May 12

8 Apr 13

 

Total

15 Jul 13

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

35%

45%

36%

59%

18%

54%

Total poor

29%

26%

30%

14%

45%

12%

Very good

6%

8%

6%

10%

1%

10%

Good

29%

37%

30%

49%

17%

44%

Neither good nor poor

33%

28%

30%

25%

34%

33%

Poor

20%

17%

22%

12%

32%

11%

Very poor

9%

9%

8%

2%

13%

1%

Don’t know

2%

2%

3%

3%

2%

2%

36% described the economy as good or very good and 30% poor/very poor – 30% said it was neither. This represents a net decline from +19 to +6 since April.

Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were people with incomes over $1,600pw (41%).

Those most likely to think the economy was poor/very poor were aged 55+ (35%) and people with incomes under $600pw (36%).

Australian economy heading in right or wrong direction

Jul 15, 2013

Q. From what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?

17 May 10

9
May 11

4
Jul
11

26 Mar 12

18
Jun
12

29
Apr
13

 

Total
15
Jul 13

 

 

Vote ALP

Vote
Lib

Vote Greens

The right direction

51%

45%

37%

36%

43%

36%

38%

66%

18%

46%

The wrong direction

25%

29%

43%

41%

32%

39%

42%

15%

66%

30%

Don’t know

24%

25%

20%

22%

25%

25%

20%

18%

16%

24%

38% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 42% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Since this question was asked in April, “right direction” has increased 2% and “wrong direction” increased 3%.

66% (down 2%) of Labor voters, 18% (down 3%) of Liberal/National voters and 46% (up 1%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. 43% of men think the economy is heading in the right direction compared to 34% of women.

Involvement in politics

Jul 15, 2013

Q. Thinking about Federal politics and the election, which of the following have you personally done in the last week?

 

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Seen any TV advertising by political parties

43%

46%

44%

38%

Received printed material from candidates.

27%

26%

27%

35%

Read about Federal politics in a newspaper

41%

43%

43%

39%

Watched Federal politicians on TV

56%

63%

54%

57%

Listened to Federal politicians on the radio

22%

21%

22%

32%

Listened to commentators talking about Federal politics on the radio

30%

32%

29%

34%

Watched commentators talking about Federal politics on the TV

48%

54%

47%

47%

Read anything about Federal politics on the internet

39%

47%

33%

49%

Discussed Federal politics and the election with friends or family

50%

56%

46%

60%

TV was the most common way for respondents to engage with politics over the past week. 56% said they had watched Federal politicians on TV and 48% had watched commentators talking about Federal politics on TV.

Labor voters were more likely to watch politicians (63%) or commentators (54%) on TV and also more likely to use the internet to read about politics (47%).

There were some substantial differences by age group – 30% of respondents aged under 35 read about politics in a newspaper compared to 57% of those aged 55+ and 42% of aged under 35 watched politicians on TV compared to 71% of aged 55+.