16 September 2013, 160913, 2PP, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,864 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 7 Sep 13 (current figures) |
|
4 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 2/9/13 |
Last week 9/9/13 |
This week 16/9/13 |
| Liberal |
|
41% |
41% |
41% |
42% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
||
| Total Lib/Nat |
45.6% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
44% |
|
| Labor |
33.6% |
40% |
35% |
35% |
36% |
|
| Greens |
8.4% |
8% |
11% |
9% |
9% |
|
| Other/Independent |
12.4% |
8% |
10% |
12% |
11% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 7 Sep 13 |
|
4 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 2/9/13 |
Last week 9/9/13 |
This week 16/9/13 |
| Liberal National |
53.4% |
50% |
52% |
53% |
53% |
|
| Labor |
46.6% |
50% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
16 September 2013, 160913, minor parties
Q. Do you think the election of micro parties in the Senate – such as Palmer United Party, Family First, Liberal Democrats, Motor Enthusiasts Party, Australian Sports Party – is good or bad for democracy?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
| Good for democracy |
38% |
41% |
27% |
45% |
78% |
|
| Bad for democracy |
25% |
18% |
39% |
25% |
4% |
|
| Makes no difference |
22% |
24% |
22% |
20% |
12% |
|
| Don’t know |
15% |
17% |
12% |
10% |
5% |
38% think that the election of micro parties to the Senate is good for democracy, 25% think it is bad for democracy and 22% think it makes no difference.
Older respondents were more likely to think it is bad for democracy – 42% of aged 55+ compared to 19% of those aged under 55.
16 September 2013, 160913, better or worse government, election 2013, Senate
Q. After the election the Coalition Government will not have a majority in the Senate – they will need the support of the minor parties and independents to pass legislation. Do you think this will result in a better or worse Government for Australia?
|
Total
|
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
| Total better |
44% |
53% |
32% |
62% |
59% |
|
| Total worse |
30% |
24% |
44% |
20% |
11% |
|
| A lot better |
18% |
25% |
9% |
26% |
33% |
|
| A little better |
26% |
28% |
23% |
36% |
26% |
|
| A little worse |
16% |
10% |
24% |
14% |
6% |
|
| A lot worse |
14% |
14% |
20% |
6% |
5% |
|
| Make no difference |
10% |
10% |
8% |
8% |
18% |
|
| Don’t know |
16% |
13% |
16% |
9% |
12% |
44% think that better Government will result from the Coalition needing the support of minor parties and independents in the Senate while 30% think it will result in worse Government.
A majority of Labor, Greens and other voters think it will result in better Government while 44% of Liberal/National voters think it will result in worse Government.
16 September 2013, 160913, Better off under Liberal government, liberal government
Q. Under the new Liberal/National Government, do you expect the following will get better or worse?
|
Total better |
Total worse |
|
A lot better |
A little better |
Stay much the same |
A little worse |
A lot worse |
Don’t know |
|
| Political leadership |
42% |
31% |
23% |
19% |
26% |
13% |
18% |
2% |
|
| Trust in Government |
36% |
36% |
16% |
20% |
27% |
14% |
22% |
2% |
|
| Unemployment |
27% |
37% |
8% |
19% |
34% |
19% |
18% |
2% |
|
| The economy overall |
38% |
30% |
17% |
21% |
30% |
16% |
14% |
2% |
|
| The cost of living |
27% |
40% |
9% |
18% |
32% |
20% |
20% |
1% |
|
| Interest rates |
17% |
31% |
6% |
11% |
49% |
18% |
13% |
3% |
|
| Health services |
23% |
42% |
8% |
15% |
34% |
20% |
22% |
2% |
|
| Job security |
22% |
43% |
7% |
15% |
32% |
21% |
22% |
3% |
|
| Workers rights and conditions |
18% |
47% |
7% |
11% |
33% |
20% |
27% |
2% |
|
| Company profits |
47% |
14% |
15% |
32% |
34% |
7% |
7% |
4% |
|
| The environment |
18% |
39% |
7% |
11% |
40% |
16% |
23% |
2% |
|
| Education and schools |
25% |
41% |
7% |
18% |
32% |
19% |
22% |
2% |
|
| Public services |
20% |
45% |
7% |
13% |
34% |
21% |
24% |
2% |
|
| Benefits for people on Government support – such as pensioners and the unemployed |
19% |
44% |
7% |
12% |
35% |
21% |
23% |
2% |
|
| Your personal financial situation |
22% |
35% |
7% |
15% |
42% |
18% |
17% |
1% |
Respondents were more likely to expect political leadership, the economy overall and company profits will get better under the new Liberal/National Government. Trust in Government was just as likely to get better as get worse. All other issues tested were thought to be more likely to get worse – especially workers rights and conditions, public services, benefits for people on Government support, job security and health services.
16 September 2013, 160913, economy
Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?
|
|
28 May 12 |
8 Apr 13 |
15 Jul 13 |
|
Total 16 Sep 13 |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Total good |
35% |
45% |
36% |
40% |
50% |
32% |
56% |
||
| Total poor |
29% |
26% |
30% |
25% |
18% |
35% |
18% |
||
| Very good |
6% |
8% |
6% |
6% |
11% |
3% |
11% |
||
| Good |
29% |
37% |
30% |
34% |
39% |
29% |
45% |
||
| Neither good nor poor |
33% |
28% |
30% |
32% |
29% |
32% |
24% |
||
| Poor |
20% |
17% |
22% |
20% |
15% |
28% |
15% |
||
| Very poor |
9% |
9% |
8% |
5% |
3% |
7% |
3% |
||
| Don’t know |
2% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
40% described the economy as good or very good and 25% poor/very poor – 32% said it was neither. This represents a net improvement from +6 to +15 since July.
This improvement was mainly due to a shift in the opinions of Liberal/National – from 18% good/45% poor (net -27) in July to 32% good/35% poor (net -3). Labor voters have also shifted – from net +45 to net +32.
Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were people with incomes over $1,600pw (48%).
16 September 2013, 160913, Austrlain economy
Q. From what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?
|
|
17 May 10 |
9 May 11 |
4 Jul 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
18 Jun 12 |
29 Apr 13 |
15 Jul 13 |
|
Total 16 Sep 13 |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| The right direction |
51% |
45% |
37% |
36% |
43% |
36% |
38% |
44% |
40% |
52% |
33% |
||
| The wrong direction |
25% |
29% |
43% |
41% |
32% |
39% |
42% |
26% |
33% |
20% |
30% |
||
| Don’t know |
24% |
25% |
20% |
22% |
25% |
25% |
20% |
30% |
27% |
28% |
37% |
44% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 26% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Since this question was asked in July, “right direction” has increased 6% and “wrong direction” decreased 16%.
40% (down 26%) of Labor voters, 52% (up 34%) of Liberal/National voters and 33% (down 13%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. 50% of men think the economy is heading in the right direction compared to 37% of women.
16 September 2013, 160913, Australian economy
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
|
|
1 Dec 08 |
5 Oct 09 |
18 Oct 10 |
3 Oct 11 |
27 Aug 12 |
29 Jan 13 |
|
Total 16 Sep 13 |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Total better |
21% |
66% |
40% |
16% |
22% |
29% |
38% |
16% |
68% |
13% |
||
| Total worse |
61% |
15% |
30% |
58% |
45% |
37% |
33% |
59% |
8% |
58% |
||
| Get a lot better |
2% |
8% |
6% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
7% |
4% |
14% |
– |
||
| Get a little better |
19% |
58% |
34% |
14% |
19% |
25% |
31% |
12% |
54% |
13% |
||
| Get a little worse |
45% |
11% |
20% |
41% |
30% |
28% |
23% |
40% |
7% |
40% |
||
| Get a lot worse |
16% |
4% |
10% |
17% |
15% |
9% |
10% |
19% |
1% |
18% |
||
| Stay much the same |
13% |
15% |
24% |
22% |
27% |
27% |
19% |
17% |
19% |
20% |
||
| Don’t know |
5% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
6% |
6% |
10% |
9% |
5% |
10% |
Confidence in the economic outlook has improved since January. The percentage of respondents believing conditions will get better increased 9 points to 38%, while those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months dropped 4 points to 33%. This is the most positive outlook recorded since October 2010.
Shifts in opinion are strongly associated with voting intention – Labor voters have shifted from 50% better/22% worse (net +28) to 16% better/59% worse (net -43). Liberal/National voters have shifted from 21% better/51% worse (net -30) to 68% better/8% worse (net +60).