Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 16, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,857 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

18/6/12

2 weeks ago

2/7/12

Last week

9/7/12

This week

16/7/12

Liberal

46%

45%

46%

46%

National

3%

3%

4%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

32%

31%

31%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

11%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

9%

9%

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

56%

57%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

44%

43%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Approval of Julia Gillard

Jul 16, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

 

19 Jul 2010

20 Dec

14 Mar

2011

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 2012

12 Jun

16 Jul

Total approve

52%

43%

41%

34%

28%

34%

32%

32%

32%

Total disapprove

30%

40%

46%

54%

64%

54%

61%

56%

58%

Strongly approve

11%

10%

7%

6%

5%

6%

8%

6%

5%

Approve

41%

33%

34%

28%

23%

28%

24%

26%

27%

Disapprove

17%

24%

22%

29%

28%

25%

29%

22%

26%

Strongly disapprove

13%

16%

24%

25%

36%

29%

32%

34%

32%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

13%

8%

11%

7%

12%

10%

Julia Gillard’s approval rating has changed little since last month. 32% (no change) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 58% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -24 to -26 over the last 5 weeks.

73% of Labor voters approve (down 1%) and 19% disapprove (up 3%).

By gender – men 32% approve/60% disapprove, women 33% approve/57% disapprove.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Jul 16, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

 

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

 

20 Dec

14 Mar

2011

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 2012

12 Jun

16 Jul

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

38%

39%

32%

36%

32%

35%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

47%

48%

50%

53%

52%

54%

53%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

7%

6%

8%

6%

7%

6%

7%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

31%

32%

31%

26%

29%

26%

28%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

24%

25%

23%

25%

23%

24%

23%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

23%

27%

28%

29%

30%

30%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

16%

15%

11%

14%

12%

13%

12%

Tony Abbott’s approval rating has improved a little over the last month. 35% (up 3%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -22 to -18 over the last 5 weeks.

67% (no change) of Coalition voters approve and 26% (up 4%) disapprove.

By gender – men 38% approve/53% disapprove, women 32% approve/53% disapprove.

Better Prime Minister

Jul 16, 2012

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5 Jul 2010

14 Mar 2011

14 June

12 Sept

12 Dec

12 Mar 2012

12 Jun

Total

16 Jul

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

53%

44%

41%

36%

39%

40%

37%

37%

76%

5%

83%

Tony Abbott

26%

33%

36%

40%

35%

37%

37%

38%

4%

76%

5%

Don’t know

21%

23%

24%

24%

26%

23%

26%

26%

19%

19%

13%

37% (no change) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 38% (up 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men prefer Tony Abbott 40%/36% and women prefer Julia Gillard 37%/35%.

Performance of the Greens

Jul 16, 2012

Q. Do you think the performance of the Greens in Federal Parliament has been good or poor?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

17%

21%

7%

71%

Total poor

47%

37%

65%

4%

Very good

3%

4%

*

18%

Good

14%

17%

7%

53%

Neither good nor poor

27%

35%

21%

21%

Poor

19%

22%

21%

1%

Very poor

28%

15%

44%

3%

Don’t know

10%

7%

7%

4%

17% think the performance of The Greens in Federal Parliament has been good or very good and 47% think it has been poor or very poor.

Labor voters tend to think The Greens’ performance has been poor/very poor  (37%) or neither good nor poor (35%) – and only 21% think it has been good/very good.

Among respondents aged under 35, 24% think The Greens’ performance has been good/very good and 29% think it has been poor/very poor.

Greens Policies

Jul 16, 2012

Q. Do you think that The Greens’ policies are too extreme or do they represent the views of many voters?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Too extreme

53%

50%

70%

4%

Represent the views of many voters

26%

27%

18%

87%

Don’t know

21%

23%

12%

9%

53% think The Greens’ policies are too extreme and 26% think they represent the views of many voters.

Those most likely to think The Greens’ policies are too extreme were men (61%), aged 55+ (77%) and Liberal/National voters (70%).

37% of respondents aged under 35 think they represent the views of many voters and 35% think they are too extreme.

Support for Julian Assange

Jul 16, 2012

Q. Julian Assange faces extradition from the UK to Sweden for an investigation into sexual assault allegations. In Sweden he will be detained while the investigation continues, and he may be extradited to the United States to face charges relating to WikiLeaks’s release of US diplomatic cables.

Do you think the Australian government has provided appropriate support to Assange given he faces investigation for sexual assault in Sweden and possible extradition to the US?

 

19 Mar 2012

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Government have provided appropriate support

22%

28%

37%

30%

16%

Government have not provided appropriate support

36%

33%

34%

32%

42%

Don’t know

41%

38%

29%

38%

41%

33% (down 3% since March) believe that Julian Assange has not received appropriate support from the Australian Government and 28% (up 6%) think he has received appropriate support. 38% could not give an opinion.

39% of men think the Government has not provided appropriate support compared to 28% of women – mainly due the 47% of women who said they “don’t know”.  34% of respondents aged 18-34 think Julian Assange has not received appropriate support compared to 21% who think the Government has provided appropriate support.

Government Response if Julian Assange is Charged by US

Jul 16, 2012

Q. Recently US government figures have indicated they want Julian Assange to be prosecuted. If he is charged by the US, what do you think the Australian Government should do?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Support US attempts to prosecute him

9%

8%

10%

4%

Call for the US to observe due process and offer consular support

34%

40%

33%

30%

Offer him protection from extradition and prosecution.

24%

26%

19%

41%

Do nothing

13%

12%

17%

7%

Don’t know

20%

13%

21%

19%

34% think that if Julian Assange is charged by the US, the Australian Government should call for the US to observe due process and offer consular support and 24% think the Government should offer him protection from extradition and prosecution. Only 9% think the Government should support US attempts to prosecute him and 13% think they should do nothing.

Support for offering Assange protection was highest among older respondents – 31% of respondents aged 55+ compared to 22% of those aged under 35.