Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 16, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,864 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

(current  figures)

 

4 weeks ago

19/8/13

2 weeks ago

2/9/13

Last week

9/9/13

This week

16/9/13

Liberal

 

41%

41%

41%

42%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

44%

44%

45%

44%

Labor

33.6%

40%

35%

35%

36%

Greens

8.4%

8%

11%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

12.4%

8%

10%

12%

11%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

19/8/13

2 weeks ago

2/9/13

Last week

9/9/13

This week

16/9/13

Liberal National

53.4%

50%

52%

53%

53%

Labor

46.6%

50%

48%

47%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Election of minor parties

Sep 16, 2013

Q. Do you think the election of micro parties in the Senate – such as Palmer United Party, Family First, Liberal Democrats, Motor Enthusiasts Party, Australian Sports Party – is good or bad for democracy?

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

Good for democracy

38%

41%

27%

45%

78%

Bad for democracy

25%

18%

39%

25%

4%

Makes no difference

22%

24%

22%

20%

12%

Don’t know

15%

17%

12%

10%

5%

38% think that the election of micro parties to the Senate is good for democracy, 25% think it is bad for democracy and 22% think it makes no difference.

Older respondents were more likely to think it is bad for democracy – 42% of aged 55+ compared to 19% of those aged under 55.

Better or worse Government

Sep 16, 2013

Q. After the election the Coalition Government will not have a majority in the Senate – they will need the support of the minor parties and independents to pass legislation. Do you think this will result in a better or worse Government for Australia?

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

Total better

44%

53%

32%

62%

59%

Total worse

30%

24%

44%

20%

11%

A lot better

18%

25%

9%

26%

33%

A little better

26%

28%

23%

36%

26%

A little worse

16%

10%

24%

14%

6%

A lot worse

14%

14%

20%

6%

5%

Make no difference

10%

10%

8%

8%

18%

Don’t know

16%

13%

16%

9%

12%

44% think that better Government will result from the Coalition needing the support of minor parties and independents in the Senate while 30% think it will result in worse Government.

A majority of Labor, Greens and other voters think it will result in better Government while 44% of Liberal/National voters think it will result in worse Government.

Better or worse under Liberal/National Government

Sep 16, 2013

Q. Under the new Liberal/National Government, do you expect the following will get better or worse?

 

Total

better

Total worse

 

A lot better

A little better

Stay much the same

A little worse

A lot worse

Don’t know

Political leadership

42%

31%

23%

19%

26%

13%

18%

2%

Trust in Government

36%

36%

16%

20%

27%

14%

22%

2%

Unemployment

27%

37%

8%

19%

34%

19%

18%

2%

The economy overall

38%

30%

17%

21%

30%

16%

14%

2%

The cost of living

27%

40%

9%

18%

32%

20%

20%

1%

Interest rates

17%

31%

6%

11%

49%

18%

13%

3%

Health services

23%

42%

8%

15%

34%

20%

22%

2%

Job security

22%

43%

7%

15%

32%

21%

22%

3%

Workers rights and conditions

18%

47%

7%

11%

33%

20%

27%

2%

Company profits

47%

14%

15%

32%

34%

7%

7%

4%

The environment

18%

39%

7%

11%

40%

16%

23%

2%

Education and schools

25%

41%

7%

18%

32%

19%

22%

2%

Public services

20%

45%

7%

13%

34%

21%

24%

2%

Benefits for people on Government support – such as pensioners and the unemployed

19%

44%

7%

12%

35%

21%

23%

2%

Your personal financial situation

22%

35%

7%

15%

42%

18%

17%

1%

Respondents were more likely to expect political leadership, the economy overall and company profits will get better under the new Liberal/National Government. Trust in Government was just as likely to get better as get worse. All other issues tested were thought to be more likely to get worse – especially workers rights and conditions, public services, benefits for people on Government support, job security and health services.

State of the economy

Sep 16, 2013

Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?

 

 

28 May 12

8 Apr 13

15 Jul 13

 

Total

16 Sep 13

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

35%

45%

36%

40%

50%

32%

56%

Total poor

29%

26%

30%

25%

18%

35%

18%

Very good

6%

8%

6%

6%

11%

3%

11%

Good

29%

37%

30%

34%

39%

29%

45%

Neither good nor poor

33%

28%

30%

32%

29%

32%

24%

Poor

20%

17%

22%

20%

15%

28%

15%

Very poor

9%

9%

8%

5%

3%

7%

3%

Don’t know

2%

2%

3%

3%

3%

2%

2%

40% described the economy as good or very good and 25% poor/very poor – 32% said it was neither. This represents a net improvement from +6 to +15 since July.

This improvement was mainly due to a shift in the opinions of Liberal/National – from 18% good/45% poor (net -27) in July to 32% good/35% poor (net -3). Labor voters have also shifted – from net +45 to net +32.

Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were people with incomes over $1,600pw (48%).

Australian economy heading in right or wrong direction

Sep 16, 2013

Q. From what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?

 

 

17 May 10

9 May 11

4 Jul 11

26 Mar 12

18 Jun 12

29 Apr 13

15 Jul 13

 

Total

16 Sep 13

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The right direction

51%

45%

37%

36%

43%

36%

38%

44%

40%

52%

33%

The wrong direction

25%

29%

43%

41%

32%

39%

42%

26%

33%

20%

30%

Don’t know

24%

25%

20%

22%

25%

25%

20%

30%

27%

28%

37%

44% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 26% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Since this question was asked in July, “right direction” has increased 6% and “wrong direction” decreased 16%.

40% (down 26%) of Labor voters, 52% (up 34%) of Liberal/National voters and 33% (down 13%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. 50% of men think the economy is heading in the right direction compared to 37% of women.

Economic outlook

Sep 16, 2013

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?  

 

 

1 Dec

08

5 Oct

09

18 Oct

10

3 Oct

11

27 Aug 12

29 Jan

13

 

Total

16 Sep 13

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total better

21%

66%

40%

16%

22%

29%

38%

16%

68%

13%

Total worse

61%

15%

30%

58%

45%

37%

33%

59%

8%

58%

Get a lot better

2%

8%

6%

2%

3%

4%

7%

4%

14%

Get a little better

19%

58%

34%

14%

19%

25%

31%

12%

54%

13%

Get a little worse

45%

11%

20%

41%

30%

28%

23%

40%

7%

40%

Get a lot worse

16%

4%

10%

17%

15%

9%

10%

19%

1%

18%

Stay much the same

13%

15%

24%

22%

27%

27%

19%

17%

19%

20%

Don’t know

5%

4%

6%

4%

6%

6%

10%

9%

5%

10%

Confidence in the economic outlook has improved since January.  The percentage of respondents believing conditions will get better increased 9 points to 38%, while those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months dropped 4 points to 33%.  This is the most positive outlook recorded since October 2010.

Shifts in opinion are strongly associated with voting intention – Labor voters have shifted from 50% better/22% worse (net +28) to 16% better/59% worse (net -43). Liberal/National voters have shifted from 21% better/51% worse (net -30) to 68% better/8% worse (net +60).