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  • Jun, 2013

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,913 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    20/5/13

    2 weeks ago

    3/6/13

    Last week

    11/6/13

    This week

    17/6/13

    Liberal

     

    45%

    45%

    44%

    44%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    48%

    48%

    47%

    47%

    Labor

    38.0%

    35%

    35%

    36%

    35%

    Greens

    11.8%

    8%

    8%

    8%

    8%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    9%

     

    2 Party Preferred

    Election

    21 Aug 10

     

    4 weeks ago

    20/5/13

    2 weeks ago

    3/6/13

    Last week

    11/6/13

    This week

    17/6/13

    Liberal National

    49.9%

    55%

    55%

    54%

    54%

    Labor

    50.1%

    45%

    45%

    46%

    46%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

  • Jun, 2013

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    2010 vote

    Q. Which party did you vote for in the last Federal election in 2010?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Labor

    39%

    85%

    12%

    22%

    Liberal

    34%

    3%

    74%

    1%

    National

    3%

    *

    6%

    3%

    Greens

    7%

    4%

    1%

    67%

    Democrats

    1%

    1%

    Family First

    1%

    *

    1%

    Independent or other party

    3%

    1%

    1%

    Didn’t vote

    7%

    5%

    3%

    7%

    Don’t know

    4%

    1%

    1%

    85% of intending Labor voters said they voted Labor in the last election and 9% voted for other parties.

    80% of intending Liberal/National voters said they voted Liberal/National in the last election, 12% said they voted Labor and 3% other parties.

    67% of intending Greens voters said they voted Greens in the last election, 22% said they voted Labor and 4% other parties.

  • Jun, 2013

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    Reason for changing vote

    Q. You say you currently intend to vote for a different party to the one you voted for in the last election. What is the main reason you have changed your vote to that party? (table based on those who have changed their vote)

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    They have better policies

    11%

    21%

    15%

    12%

    They have a better leader

    11%

    27%

    7%

    They are more trustworthy

    15%

    7%

    19%

    44%

    They are more competent

    12%

    20%

    7%

    They will be better for Australia’s future

    23%

    35%

    22%

    19%

    They will be better for me personally

    3%

    13%

    Other reason

    18%

    10%

    15%

    4%

    Don’t know

    8%

    2%

    2%

    Note: Samples for voting intention columns are small – 8% of respondents have changed to Liberal/National, 3% to Labor and 2% to the Greens.

    22% of those who have changed their vote to Liberal/National say the main reason is they will be better for Australia’s future, 20% say they are more competent and 19% more trustworthy.

    Although sample sizes are very small, those changing their vote to Labor say they will be better for Australia’s future (35%) and they have a better leader (27%). Those switching their vote to the Greens tend to say they are more trustworthy (44%).

  • Jun, 2013

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    Most important election issues

    Q.  Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?

     

    Total

    17 Jun 13

    11 Feb 13

    19 Nov 12

    30 Jul 12

    5 Dec 11

    6 June 11

    25 Jan 10

    Management of the economy

    47%

    62%

    66%

    64%

    62%

    61%

    63%

    Ensuring a quality education for all children

    25%

    29%

    35%

    26%

    22%

    26%

    23%

    Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

    45%

    52%

    57%

    47%

    47%

    49%

    48%

    Protecting the environment

    13%

    14%

    14%

    11%

    13%

    15%

    16%

    A fair industrial relations system

    10%

    12%

    8%

    12%

    11%

    8%

    na

    Political leadership

    22%

    14%

    15%

    25%

    18%

    17%

    23%

    Addressing climate change

    11%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    10%

    15%

    16%

    Controlling interest rates

    11%

    9%

    11%

    9%

    11%

    13%

    15%

    Australian jobs and protection of local industries

    34%

    40%

    32%

    41%

    36%

    32%

    33%

    Ensuring a quality water supply

    5%

    4%

    5%

    3%

    4%

    5%

    12%

    Housing affordability

    14%

    11%

    14%

    13%

    13%

    16%

    14%

    Ensuring a fair taxation system

    19%

    21%

    17%

    18%

    16%

    17%

    14%

    Security and the war on terrorism

    8%

    6%

    5%

    5%

    4%

    8%

    9%

    Treatment of asylum seekers

    11%

    6%

    6%

    10%

    8%

    5%

    na

    Managing population growth

    11%

    9%

    7%

    8%

    8%

    12%

    na

    47% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 45% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 34% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 25% ensuring a quality education for all children.

    Since February, there has been a decline in the importance of managing the economy (-15%), ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system (-7%) and Australian jobs and protection of local industries (-6%) and an increase in political leadership (+8%).

  • Jun, 2013

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    Party trust to handle issues

    Q.  Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

     

    Labor

    Liberal

    Greens

    Don’t know

    Difference 17 Jun 13

    Difference 11 Feb 13

    Difference

    19 Nov 12

    Difference

    18 Jun 12

    Management of the economy

    28%

    46%

    2%

    24%

    -18

    -15

    -14

    -18

    Ensuring a quality education for all children

    37%

    36%

    4%

    23%

    +1

    +2

    +5

    -2

    Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

    32%

    37%

    6%

    26%

    -5

    -3

    -3

    -6

    Protecting the environment

    19%

    24%

    34%

    22%

    +10

    +18

    +16

    +17

    A fair industrial relations system

    37%

    34%

    5%

    24%

    +3

    +6

    +9

    +6

    Political leadership

    23%

    42%

    5%

    30%

    -19

    -8

    -12

    -16

    Addressing climate change

    19%

    26%

    26%

    28%

    +5

    +9

    +7

    Controlling interest rates

    25%

    42%

    2%

    31%

    -17

    -14

    -11

    -18

    Australian jobs and protection of local industries

    30%

    37%

    4%

    29%

    -7

    -3

    -2

    -6

    Ensuring a quality water supply

    19%

    33%

    18%

    31%

    -14

    -6

    -7

    -12

    Housing affordability

    24%

    36%

    5%

    35%

    -12

    -6

    -5

    -11

    Ensuring a fair taxation system

    28%

    39%

    4%

    29%

    -11

    -6

    -9

    -10

    Security and the war on terrorism

    23%

    41%

    3%

    34%

    -18

    -13

    -15

    -22

    Treatment of asylum seekers

    17%

    39%

    12%

    32%

    -22

    -17

    -18

    -20

    Managing population growth

    18%

    37%

    8%

    38%

    -19

    -12

    -15

    -19

    Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.

    The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership, security and the war on terrorism, treatment of asylum seekers and managing population growth.

    There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals on ensuring a quality education for all children and a fair industrial relations system. Since February, there have been significant shifts to the Liberals on protecting the environment, political leadership, ensuring a quality water supply and managing population growth.

  • Jun, 2013

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    Party with best policy on handling asylum seeker issue

    Q. Which party has the best policy for handling the issue of asylum seekers arriving by boat?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Labor

    13%

    36%

    2%

    4%

    Liberal

    38%

    8%

    74%

    4%

    Greens

    7%

    8%

    1%

    55%

    None of them

    31%

    36%

    18%

    27%

    Don’t know

    11%

    13%

    6%

    9%

    38% think the Liberal Party has the best policy for handling the issue of asylum seekers arriving by boat and 13% think the Labor Party has the best policy. 31% think no party has the best policy.

    Only 36% of Labor voters think the Labor Party has the best policy compared with 74% of Liberal/National voters who think the Liberals have the best policy.

    Of those who think the asylum seeker issue is one of or the most important election issue, 59% think that the Liberals have the best policy, 12% think Labor has the best policy and 18% think none of them do.

  • Jun, 2013

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    Importance of asylum seeker issue

    Q. How important is the asylum seeker issue of in deciding which party you will vote for in the Federal election?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    The most important issue

    6%

    5%

    7%

    One of the most important issues

    28%

    16%

    39%

    27%

    Quite important but not as important as other issues

    37%

    43%

    35%

    31%

    Not very important

    14%

    16%

    11%

    18%

    Not at all important

    10%

    14%

    6%

    20%

    Don’t know

    5%

    5%

    2%

    5%

    34% of respondents think the asylum seeker issue is the most important or one of the most important election issues.

    46% of Liberal/National voters think it is one of or the most important issues.

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