Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 17, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,913 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

20/5/13

2 weeks ago

3/6/13

Last week

11/6/13

This week

17/6/13

Liberal

 

45%

45%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

47%

47%

Labor

38.0%

35%

35%

36%

35%

Greens

11.8%

8%

8%

8%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

20/5/13

2 weeks ago

3/6/13

Last week

11/6/13

This week

17/6/13

Liberal National

49.9%

55%

55%

54%

54%

Labor

50.1%

45%

45%

46%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

2010 vote

Jun 17, 2013

Q. Which party did you vote for in the last Federal election in 2010?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Labor

39%

85%

12%

22%

Liberal

34%

3%

74%

1%

National

3%

*

6%

3%

Greens

7%

4%

1%

67%

Democrats

1%

1%

Family First

1%

*

1%

Independent or other party

3%

1%

1%

Didn’t vote

7%

5%

3%

7%

Don’t know

4%

1%

1%

85% of intending Labor voters said they voted Labor in the last election and 9% voted for other parties.

80% of intending Liberal/National voters said they voted Liberal/National in the last election, 12% said they voted Labor and 3% other parties.

67% of intending Greens voters said they voted Greens in the last election, 22% said they voted Labor and 4% other parties.

Reason for changing vote

Jun 17, 2013

Q. You say you currently intend to vote for a different party to the one you voted for in the last election. What is the main reason you have changed your vote to that party? (table based on those who have changed their vote)

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

They have better policies

11%

21%

15%

12%

They have a better leader

11%

27%

7%

They are more trustworthy

15%

7%

19%

44%

They are more competent

12%

20%

7%

They will be better for Australia’s future

23%

35%

22%

19%

They will be better for me personally

3%

13%

Other reason

18%

10%

15%

4%

Don’t know

8%

2%

2%

Note: Samples for voting intention columns are small – 8% of respondents have changed to Liberal/National, 3% to Labor and 2% to the Greens.

22% of those who have changed their vote to Liberal/National say the main reason is they will be better for Australia’s future, 20% say they are more competent and 19% more trustworthy.

Although sample sizes are very small, those changing their vote to Labor say they will be better for Australia’s future (35%) and they have a better leader (27%). Those switching their vote to the Greens tend to say they are more trustworthy (44%).

Most important election issues

Jun 17, 2013

Q.  Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?

 

Total

17 Jun 13

11 Feb 13

19 Nov 12

30 Jul 12

5 Dec 11

6 June 11

25 Jan 10

Management of the economy

47%

62%

66%

64%

62%

61%

63%

Ensuring a quality education for all children

25%

29%

35%

26%

22%

26%

23%

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

45%

52%

57%

47%

47%

49%

48%

Protecting the environment

13%

14%

14%

11%

13%

15%

16%

A fair industrial relations system

10%

12%

8%

12%

11%

8%

na

Political leadership

22%

14%

15%

25%

18%

17%

23%

Addressing climate change

11%

9%

9%

9%

10%

15%

16%

Controlling interest rates

11%

9%

11%

9%

11%

13%

15%

Australian jobs and protection of local industries

34%

40%

32%

41%

36%

32%

33%

Ensuring a quality water supply

5%

4%

5%

3%

4%

5%

12%

Housing affordability

14%

11%

14%

13%

13%

16%

14%

Ensuring a fair taxation system

19%

21%

17%

18%

16%

17%

14%

Security and the war on terrorism

8%

6%

5%

5%

4%

8%

9%

Treatment of asylum seekers

11%

6%

6%

10%

8%

5%

na

Managing population growth

11%

9%

7%

8%

8%

12%

na

47% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 45% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 34% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 25% ensuring a quality education for all children.

Since February, there has been a decline in the importance of managing the economy (-15%), ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system (-7%) and Australian jobs and protection of local industries (-6%) and an increase in political leadership (+8%).

Party trust to handle issues

Jun 17, 2013

Q.  Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

 

Labor

Liberal

Greens

Don’t know

Difference 17 Jun 13

Difference 11 Feb 13

Difference

19 Nov 12

Difference

18 Jun 12

Management of the economy

28%

46%

2%

24%

-18

-15

-14

-18

Ensuring a quality education for all children

37%

36%

4%

23%

+1

+2

+5

-2

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

32%

37%

6%

26%

-5

-3

-3

-6

Protecting the environment

19%

24%

34%

22%

+10

+18

+16

+17

A fair industrial relations system

37%

34%

5%

24%

+3

+6

+9

+6

Political leadership

23%

42%

5%

30%

-19

-8

-12

-16

Addressing climate change

19%

26%

26%

28%

+5

+9

+7

Controlling interest rates

25%

42%

2%

31%

-17

-14

-11

-18

Australian jobs and protection of local industries

30%

37%

4%

29%

-7

-3

-2

-6

Ensuring a quality water supply

19%

33%

18%

31%

-14

-6

-7

-12

Housing affordability

24%

36%

5%

35%

-12

-6

-5

-11

Ensuring a fair taxation system

28%

39%

4%

29%

-11

-6

-9

-10

Security and the war on terrorism

23%

41%

3%

34%

-18

-13

-15

-22

Treatment of asylum seekers

17%

39%

12%

32%

-22

-17

-18

-20

Managing population growth

18%

37%

8%

38%

-19

-12

-15

-19

Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.

The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership, security and the war on terrorism, treatment of asylum seekers and managing population growth.

There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals on ensuring a quality education for all children and a fair industrial relations system. Since February, there have been significant shifts to the Liberals on protecting the environment, political leadership, ensuring a quality water supply and managing population growth.

Party with best policy on handling asylum seeker issue

Jun 17, 2013

Q. Which party has the best policy for handling the issue of asylum seekers arriving by boat?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Labor

13%

36%

2%

4%

Liberal

38%

8%

74%

4%

Greens

7%

8%

1%

55%

None of them

31%

36%

18%

27%

Don’t know

11%

13%

6%

9%

38% think the Liberal Party has the best policy for handling the issue of asylum seekers arriving by boat and 13% think the Labor Party has the best policy. 31% think no party has the best policy.

Only 36% of Labor voters think the Labor Party has the best policy compared with 74% of Liberal/National voters who think the Liberals have the best policy.

Of those who think the asylum seeker issue is one of or the most important election issue, 59% think that the Liberals have the best policy, 12% think Labor has the best policy and 18% think none of them do.

Importance of asylum seeker issue

Jun 17, 2013

Q. How important is the asylum seeker issue of in deciding which party you will vote for in the Federal election?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The most important issue

6%

5%

7%

One of the most important issues

28%

16%

39%

27%

Quite important but not as important as other issues

37%

43%

35%

31%

Not very important

14%

16%

11%

18%

Not at all important

10%

14%

6%

20%

Don’t know

5%

5%

2%

5%

34% of respondents think the asylum seeker issue is the most important or one of the most important election issues.

46% of Liberal/National voters think it is one of or the most important issues.