Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 17, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 2,003 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

 

2 weeks ago

3/9/12

Last week

10/9/2012

This week

Liberal

46%

44%

44%

45%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

48%

47%

48%

Labor

38.0%

32%

34%

34%

34%

Greens

11.8%

10%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

 

2 weeks ago

3/9/12

Last week

10/9/2012

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

55%

55%

55%

Labor

50.1%

43%

45%

45%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Leader Attributes – Julia Gillard

Sep 17, 2012

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard?

 

5 Jul 10

4 Oct 10

7 Feb 11

27 Jun 11

2 Apr 12

17 Sept 12

Change

Intelligent

87%

81%

75%

73%

61%

68%

+7%

Hard-working

89%

82%

76%

75%

65%

69%

+4%

A capable leader

72%

59%

52%

42%

38%

43%

+5%

Arrogant

37%

39%

44%

48%

53%

46%

-7%

Out of touch with ordinary people

35%

44%

50%

60%

65%

56%

-9%

Understands the problems facing Australia

68%

55%

52%

44%

41%

43%

+2%

Visionary

48%

38%

30%

26%

25%

31%

+6%

Superficial

51%

52%

54%

46%

-8%

Good in a crisis

61%

46%

46%

41%

36%

43%

+7%

Narrow-minded

28%

35%

43%

46%

53%

46%

-7%

More honest than most politicians

45%

37%

37%

29%

26%

31%

+5%

Trustworthy

49%

42%

40%

30%

25%

30%

+5%

Intolerant

37%

Aggressive

42%

Erratic

43%

Gillard’s key attributes were hard-working (69%), intelligent (68%) and out of touch with ordinary people (56%).    All positive leader attributes for Gillard moved up from the last time the question was polled in April 2012.   The biggest shifts on the positive attributes were on intelligent (+7%) and visionary (+6%).

All negative attributes shifted down from April.  The attributes that had the largest shifts downwards were out of touch with ordinary people (-10%) and superficial (-8%).

Leader Attributes – Tony Abbott

Sep 17, 2012

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?

 

5 Jul 10

4 Oct 10

7 Feb 11

27 Jun 11

2 Apr 12

17 Sept 12

Change

Intelligent

70%

71%

64%

61%

56%

62%

+6%

Hard-working

76%

78%

72%

75%

68%

67%

-1%

A capable leader

47%

52%

48%

45%

41%

37%

-4%

Arrogant

59%

60%

58%

60%

61%

63%

+2%

Out of touch with ordinary people

57%

53%

54%

57%

54%

57%

+3%

Understands the problems facing Australia

50%

53%

50%

48%

49%

43%

-6%

Visionary

32%

31%

27%

27%

26%

29%

+3%

Superficial

45%

49%

49%

51%

+2%

Good in a crisis

40%

42%

41%

40%

36%

35%

-1%

Narrow-minded

56%

53%

51%

54%

54%

59%

+5%

More honest than most politicians

33%

32%

31%

32%

30%

27%

-3%

Trustworthy

33%

35%

34%

32%

32%

30%

-2%

Intolerant

53%

Aggressive

59%

Erratic

51%

Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (67%), intelligent (62%) and arrogant (63%).

The biggest shifts in the leader attributes for Abbott were on intelligent (+6%), understandings the problems facing Australia (-6%), narrow minded (+5%) and a capable leader (-4%).

Leader Attributes – Comparisons

Sep 17, 2012
 

Gillard

Abbott

Difference

Intelligent

68%

62%

+6%

Hard-working

69%

67%

+2%

A capable leader

43%

37%

+6%

Arrogant

46%

63%

-17%

Out of touch with ordinary people

56%

57%

-1%

Understands the problems facing Australia

43%

43%

Visionary

31%

29%

+2%

Superficial

46%

51%

-5%

Good in a crisis

43%

35%

+8%

Narrow-minded

46%

59%

-13%

More honest than most politicians

31%

27%

+4%

Trustworthy

30%

30%

Intolerant

37%

53%

-16%

Aggressive

42%

59%

-17%

Erratic

43%

51%

-8%

Compared to Abbott, Gillard is seen as more intelligent (+6%), a more capable leader (+6%) and good in a crisis (+8%).

Abbott is regarded by significantly more respondents to be arrogant (+17%), narrow minded (+13%), intolerant (+16%) and aggressive (+17%).

Since the last time the question was polled, Gillard has narrowed the gap on ‘out of touch with ordinary people’ (moving from +11% in April compared to Abbott to -1% this week) as well as ‘understands the problem facing Australia’ (-8% in April 2012 to equal with Abbott this month).

Attitudes to drug law enforcement

Sep 17, 2012

Q. Do you have a close friend or relative (such as a sibling or child) that regularly uses, or regularly used, illegal drugs? 

 

Total

Yes

17%

No

81%

I’d prefer not to say

2%

Seventeen percent (17%) of respondents polled have a close friend or relative that regularly uses, or used, illegal drugs.  The vast majority did not (81%) and 2% elected not to say.

Q. How would you describe the approach to drug law enforcement in Australia:

 

Total

Have a close friend or relative

No close friend or relative

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Too harsh

8%

18%

6%

12%

4%

23%

Too soft

62%

47%

66%

57%

73%

26%

About right

18%

24%

17%

22%

15%

30%

Don’t know

11%

11%

12%

10%

8%

21%

The majority of respondents regard drug law enforcement in Australia to be too soft (62%), followed by 18% who believe it to be about right and 8% who see it as too harsh.

Those with a close friend or relative that regularly uses were far more likely to regard drug law enforcement as too harsh (18%) or about right (24%).

Looking at the results by voting intention, Greens voters were the most likely to regard drug law enforcement as too harsh (23%) whilst Coalition voters were by far the most likely to believe it to be too soft (73%).

Attitudes to decriminalization or legalization

Sep 17, 2012

Q. Thinking about the issue of illegal drugs in Australia, which has one of the highest per capita illicit drug use in the world, please indicate which position is closer to your view:

Sample A (N= 468)

 

Sample B (N=501)

 

We should decriminalise all illegal drugs (including production and trafficking within Australia) to reduce the unregulated black market trade in these substances.

8%

We should legalise all illegal drugs (including production and trafficking within Australia) to reduce the unregulated black market trade in these substances.

7%

We should decriminalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking.

29%

We should legalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking.

30%

We should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use.

53%

We should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use.

57%

None of the above

10%

None of the above

7%

The table above shows the results of a randomly split sample on attitudes to drug law reform. The total sample of 968 respondents was randomly split into two and asked a series of slightly different questions (Sample A and Sample B).  The difference between the two questions was use of language: in Sample A, ‘decriminalisation’ was used and in Sample B, ‘legalisation’ was instead used in its place.

The results show no difference between the samples on the basis of language, as the variations in percentages can be attributed to margin of error for the sample size.

Overall, we see that the most dominant attitude to drug law reform amongst both samples is to ‘prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use’ (53% Sample A, 57% Sample B).

About a third of respondents in each sample believe that we should ‘decriminalise/legalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking’ (29% Sample A, 30% Sample B).

Attitudes to decriminalization or legalization

Sep 17, 2012

Q. Thinking about the issue of illegal drugs in Australia, which has one of the highest per capita illicit drug use in the world, please indicate which position is closer to your view:

Sample A (N= 468)

Total

Have a close friend or relative

(n=91)

No close friend or relative (n=368)

Vote Labor

(n=136)

Vote Lib/Nat

(n=209)

Vote Greens

(n=41)

We should decriminalise all illegal drugs (including production and trafficking within Australia) to reduce the unregulated black market trade in these substances.

8%

7%

8%

10%

6%

5%

We should decriminalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking.

29%

48%

25%

40%

23%

44%

We should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use.

53%

40%

57%

40%

62%

44%

None of the above

10%

5%

10%

10%

9%

5%

The largest portion of those respondents with a close friend or relative that regularly uses believe in decriminalizing small scale illegal drug use and possession (48%) compared with 29% of Sample A.

The majority of those that did not have a close friend or relative that regularly uses believed in prohibition of all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia (57%).

Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters were by far the most likely to take the position of prohibition of all activities (62%).

Attitudes to decriminalization or legalization

Sep 17, 2012

Q. Thinking about the issue of illegal drugs in Australia, which has one of the highest per capita illicit drug use in the world, please indicate which position is closer to your view:

Sample B (N=501)

Total

 

Have a close friend or relative

(n=69)

No close friend or relative

(n=417)

Vote Labor

(n=159)

Vote Lib/Nat

(n=205)

Vote Greens

(n=40)

We should legalise all illegal drugs (including production and trafficking within Australia) to reduce the unregulated black market trade in these substances.

7%

12%

6%

10%

5%

13%

We should legalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking.

30%

41%

26%

35%

22%

40%

We should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use.

57%

 

45%

59%

50%

67%

30%

None of the above

7%

3%

8%

5%

6%

18%

The largest portion of those respondents with a close friend or relative that regularly uses believe in prohibiting all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia (45%), followed by legalizing small scale illegal drug use and possession (41%), however this difference may be on account of margin of error in the small sub-sample size.

Once again, Coalition voters were the most likely to take the view that ‘we should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia…’ (67%) compared to the rest of the sample by voting intention.

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