Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 17, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,960 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

 

4 weeks ago

19/11/13

2 weeks ago

3/12/13

Last week

10/12/13

This week

17/12/13

Liberal

 

41%

41%

41%

41%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

44%

44%

44%

44%

Labor

33.4%

35%

36%

37%

37%

Greens

8.6%

9%

8%

8%

7%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

4%

4%

5%

4%

Other/Independent

6.9%

7%

7%

7%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

19/11/13

2 weeks ago

3/12/13

Last week

10/12/13

This week

17/12/13

Liberal National

53.5%

53%

52%

51%

51%

Labor

46.5%

47%

48%

49%

49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

The last 12 months

Dec 17, 2013

Q. Thinking about the last 12 months, has it been a good or bad year for each of the following?

 

Total good

Total

bad

 

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

Don’t know

 

Good 2012

Bad 2012

The Australian economy

25%

38%

3%

22%

34%

31%

7%

4%

29%

37%

Australian politics in general

8%

70%

1%

7%

18%

35%

35%

4%

9%

61%

Large companies and corporations

25%

34%

4%

21%

33%

25%

9%

7%

32%

31%

Small business

10%

55%

1%

9%

29%

38%

17%

6%

10%

62%

Trade unions

11%

36%

2%

9%

39%

24%

12%

14%

18%

30%

The average Australian

19%

41%

1%

18%

36%

31%

10%

4%

17%

45%

Your personal financial situation

26%

34%

3%

23%

39%

23%

11%

2%

Your workplace *

35%

27%

5%

30%

35%

20%

7%

2%

You and your family overall

39%

21%

7%

32%

37%

15%

6%

2%

29%

36%

* working people

70% think 2013 has been a bad year for Australian politics in general and 55% think it has been a bad year for small business.

The only issues on which more think it has been a good year were “you and your family overall (39% good/21% bad) and “your workplace” (35%/27%).

Compared to 2012, respondents were more likely to think 2013 had been a bad year for Australian politics (up 8%) and trade unions (up 6%).

However, they were more likely to think 2013 had been a good year to “you and your family overall (up 10%).

Next 12 months

Dec 17, 2013

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think 2014 will be a good or bad year for each of the following?

 

Total good

Total

bad

 

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

Don’t know

The Australian economy

27%

37%

2%

25%

31%

27%

10%

6%

Australian politics in general

21%

45%

2%

19%

29%

25%

20%

6%

Large companies and corporations

30%

30%

4%

26%

32%

22%

8%

8%

Small business

17%

41%

1%

16%

34%

30%

11%

8%

Trade unions

11%

37%

2%

9%

38%

24%

13%

14%

The average Australian

23%

34%

1%

22%

38%

26%

8%

5%

Your personal financial situation

31%

25%

3%

28%

39%

18%

7%

4%

Your workplace*

36%

21%

4%

32%

39%

16%

5%

3%

You and your family overall

41%

16%

7%

34%

38%

11%

5%

5%

* working people

Respondents are more likely to be positive about 2014 for “you and your family” (41% good/16% bad), “your workplace” (36%/21%) and “your personal financial situation” (31%/25%).

Compared to their opinions of 2013, they expect improvements for “Australian politics in general” (up 11% to 21% good), “large companies and corporations” (up 5% to 30%) and “small business” (up 7% to 17%) – although all of these are off low base figures.

Qantas

Dec 17, 2013

Q. Which of the following actions should the Federal Government take to help Qantas remain a competitive airline?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Nationalise Qantas, i.e. the Government has full ownership and control

26%

27%

24%

24%

37%

Buy shares in Qantas

24%

26%

22%

17%

35%

Allow increased foreign ownership of Qantas

20%

19%

26%

12%

14%

Provide direct funding and subsidies

20%

29%

14%

10%

23%

None of them

13%

8%

16%

23%

10%

Don’t know

22%

21%

19%

36%

12%

The most preferred options for the Government to help Qantas remain a competitive airline involve some form of Government ownership. 26% support nationalising Qantas and 24% think the Government should buy shares in Qantas. 20% support allowing increased foreign ownership and 20% providing direct funding and subsidies.

Labor voters are a little more likely to support direct funding and subsidies (29%) while Liberal/National voters are more likely to support increased foreign ownership (26%).

Importance of car manufacturing

Dec 17, 2013

Q. How important is it that Australia has a car manufacturing industry, even if it needs hundreds of millions of dollars each year in Government support and investment?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

1 Oct

2013

Total important

60%

 

74%

50%

48%

70%

58%

Total not important

33%

 

21%

46%

48%

25%

30%

Very important

30%

 

39%

26%

21%

32%

24%

Somewhat important

30%

35%

24%

27%

38%

34%

Not very important

20%

15%

24%

23%

18%

18%

Not at all important

13%

6%

22%

24%

7%

12%

Don’t know

6%

6%

5%

6%

5%

12%

60% think it is important that Australia has a car manufacturing industry, even if it needs hundreds of millions of dollars each year in Government support and investment while 33% think it is not important. This is s light increase in both measures since October as those saying “don’t know” has declined from 12% to 6%.

Labor voters are most likely to think a car manufacturing industry is important (70%) while Liberal/National voters are split (50% important/46% not important).

Subsidies to Holden

Dec 17, 2013

Q. Would you approve or disapprove of the Government increasing subsidies to Holden to keep them in Australia?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Total approve

45%

 

60%

35%

30%

41%

Total disapprove

42%

 

26%

57%

59%

46%

Strongly approve

15%

 

21%

11%

8%

15%

Approve

30%

39%

24%

22%

26%

Disapprove

25%

16%

30%

38%

35%

Strongly disapprove

17%

10%

27%

21%

11%

Don’t know

12%

14%

8%

12%

14%

45% would approve of increasing subsidies to Holden to keep them in Australia while 42% disapprove.

A majority of Labor voters approve (60%) and a majority of Liberal/National voters disapprove (57%).

Support for Toyota

Dec 17, 2013

Q. When Holden closes, Toyota will be the only company manufacturing cars in Australia. Do you think the Government should increase financial support for Toyota, decrease support or leave it the same?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

Increase support

31%

 

44%

21%

16%

37%

Decrease support

11%

 

7%

15%

13%

8%

Leave it the same

44%

 

32%

52%

54%

49%

Don’t know

14%

17%

11%

17%

7%

31% think the Government should increase financial support to Toyota and 44% think they should leave it the same. Only 11% were in favour of decreasing the support for Toyota.