TRENDS: Trends with Peter Lewis

Jun 18, 2012


Peter Lewis dissects a survey which shows some alarming misconceptions about the nature of their own super.

Some recent polling by EMC shows that not only are people underestimating the amount of money they need to retire on, they also have no idea of how much they will have in reality.
However, there is one common factor. Peter Lewis tells 3Q that most people believe their super will not meet their expectations.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 18, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,842 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

21/5/12

2 weeks ago

4/6/12

Last week

12/6/12

This week

18/6/12

Liberal

46%

47%

46%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

50%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

33%

32%

33%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

7%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Party trust to handle important election issues

Jun 18, 2012

Q.  Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

 

Labor

Liberal

Greens

Don’t know

Difference

18 Jun 12

Difference

5 Dec 11

Management of the economy

26%

44%

3%

27%

-18

-18

Ensuring a quality education for all children

33%

35%

5%

26%

-2

-2

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

30%

36%

7%

27%

-6

-3

Protecting the environment

17%

21%

38%

24%

+17

+14

A fair industrial relations system

36%

30%

6%

28%

+6

+4

Political leadership

21%

37%

7%

36%

-16

-17

Addressing climate change

18%

24%

31%

27%

+7

+6

Controlling interest rates

22%

40%

3%

35%

-18

-18

Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries

29%

35%

6%

31%

-6

-3

Ensuring a quality water supply

16%

28%

23%

33%

-12

-12

Housing affordability

22%

33%

5%

39%

-11

-10

Ensuring a fair taxation system

26%

36%

5%

32%

-10

-9

Security and the war on terrorism

18%

40%

4%

38%

-22

-19

Treatment of asylum seekers

16%

36%

13%

36%

-20

-19

Managing population growth

17%

36%

7%

40%

-19

-17

Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.

Labor does not have a substantial lead over the Liberal Party on any item measured. The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership and security and the war on terrorism.

There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals for ensuring a quality education for all children, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health systerm and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries. Overall, there has been very little change in these results since December.

The Economy – Heading in the Right/Wrong Direction

Jun 18, 2012

Q. Overall, from what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?

 

17 May 10

(Post 2010 budget)

9 May 11

(Post 2011 budget)

4 Jul 11

26 Mar 12

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Liberal/ National

Vote Greens

The right direction

51%

45%

37%

36%

43%

71%

26%

63%

The wrong direction

25%

29%

43%

41%

32%

7%

53%

14%

Don’t know

24%

25%

20%

22%

25%

23%

20%

23%

43% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 32% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Since this question was last asked in March, “right direction” has increased 7% and “wrong direction” declined 9%.

71% (up 6%) of Labor voters, 26% (up 7%) of Liberal/National voters and 63% (up 16%) of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction. There were no major differences across demographic groups except for the 18-34 years group where 47% thought the economy was heading in the right direction and 25% in the wrong direction.

Job security

Jun 18, 2012

Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? 

 

8 Jun

09

5 Oct

09

28 Jun 10

18 Oct 10

4 Apr

11

4 Jul

11

3 Oct

11

26 Mar 12

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total concerned

52%

49%

43%

40%

43%

45%

47%

49%

56%

46%

67%

38%

Very concerned

13%

14%

9%

11%

11%

13%

14%

13%

18%

12%

26%

10%

Somewhat concerned

39%

35%

34%

29%

32%

32%

33%

36%

38%

34%

41%

28%

Not at all concerned

35%

40%

38%

42%

43%

39%

37%

36%

32%

41%

26%

51%

Don’t know

6%

6%

12%

10%

8%

8%

7%

8%

7%

7%

4%

4%

No employees in the immediate family

8%

5%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

5%

6%

3%

6%

Concern over job security has risen since the last time the question was polled, increasing 7 points from 49% in March to 56% (total concerned).

In the 12 months from July 2011, total concern has increased from 45% to 56%.

Coalition voters are the most likely to be concerned that they or a member of their immediately family will lose their job in the next year or so (up 12% to 67% total concerned), whereas Greens voters are less likely to be concerned (up 4% to 38% total concerned).

Those most concerned were aged 45-64 (62%), part-time workers (63%) and women (61%).  Among the under 25’s, 40% were concerned and 43% not concerned.

Trust in People and Organisations

Jun 18, 2012

Q. How much trust do you have that the following people or organisations can be relied on to act in the community’s interest?

 

Total a lot/some trust

Total little/no trust

A lot of trust

Some trust

A little trust

No trust

Don’t know

Net trust
Kevin Rudd

37%

56%

14%

23%

26%

30%

7%

-19

Malcolm Turnbull

33%

54%

8%

25%

29%

25%

14%

-21

Tony Abbott

29%

63%

10%

19%

20%

43%

7%

-34

Julia Gillard

26%

67%

8%

18%

22%

45%

6%

-41

Mining magnates like Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart

14%

73%

3%

11%

23%

50%

13%

-59

Australian companies

46%

47%

8%

38%

35%

12%

7%

-1

Banks

17%

66%

2%

15%

32%

44%

7%

-49

Foreign companies

8%

81%

1%

7%

24%

57%

10%

-73

There was a substantial lack of trust in all people and organisations tested with the exception of Australian companies – which split 46% a lot/some trust and 47% little/no trust.

For both the Labor Party and the Liberal Party, the current leaders were less trusted than the previous leaders. However, all political leaders were more trusted than mining magnates like Clive Palmer and Gina Rinehart.

Among Labor voters, 58% had a lot/some trust in Julia Gillard and 58% had a lot/some trust in Kevin Rudd. Among Liberal/National voters, 58% had a lot/some trust in Tony Abbott and 44% had a lot/some trust in Malcolm Turnbull.

Bias in Media Reporting

Jun 18, 2012

Q. Overall, do you think media reporting is biased in favour or against the following groups?

 

Biased in favour

Biased against

Not biased

Don’t know

Net score

Business groups

27%

14%

29%

30%

+13

The Liberal Party

26%

22%

26%

26%

+4

Large corporations

26%

25%

23%

27%

+1

Environment groups

22%

25%

26%

27%

-3

The Greens

19%

27%

27%

27%

-8

Religious groups

14%

24%

32%

30%

-10

The Labor Party

18%

31%

26%

25%

-13

Unions

18%

32%

23%

26%

-14

Net score = bias in favour minus bias against.

Overall, respondents think that media reporting is biased in favour of business groups and biased against unions, the Labor Party and religious groups. They were evenly divided over whether media reporting is biased for or against the Liberal Party, large corporations, and environment groups.

Among Labor voters, 50% think the media are biased against the Labor Party and 43% think they are biased in favour of the Liberal Party.

Among Coalition voters, 34% think the media are biased against the Liberal Party and 29% think they are biased in favour of the Labor Party.

57% of Greens voters think the media are biased against the Greens.