Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 18, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,874 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

18/2/13

2 weeks ago

4/2/13

Last week

11/3/13

This week

18/3/13

Liberal

44%

46%

45%

45%

National

3%

3%

3%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

49%

48%

47%

Labor

38.0%

35%

32%

34%

35%

Greens

11.8%

9%

10%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

8%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

56%

55%

54%

Labor

50.1%

46%

44%

45%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Liberal Party and WorkChoices

Mar 18, 2013

Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?

 

31
May
10

12
July
10

21
Nov
11

23
Jul
12

3
Sept
12

Total
18
Mar
13

Vote
ALP

Vote
Lib

Vote Greens

Work full
time

Work part time

Total likely

58%

56%

51%

53%

51%

48%

67%

31%

67%

48%

49%

Total unlikely

21%

24%

27%

22%

25%

28%

17%

44%

10%

31%

20%

Very likely

28%

26%

22%

26%

23%

25%

45%

7%

42%

27%

22%

Quite likely

30%

30%

29%

27%

28%

23%

22%

24%

25%

21%

27%

Not very likely

18%

18%

19%

16%

18%

19%

12%

31%

8%

22%

12%

Not at all likely

3%

6%

8%

6%

7%

9%

5%

13%

2%

9%

8%

Don’t know

20%

20%

22%

26%

24%

25%

15%

26%

23%

21%

31%

Respondents were a little less likely to think that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices than when a similar question was asked in September. 48% (down 3%) think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 28% (up 3%) think it is unlikely.

67% (down 7%) of Labor voters and 67% (down 1%) of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters are split 31% likely (down 2%) to 44% unlikely (up 1%).

Concern about Liberals bringing back WorkChoices

Mar 18, 2013

Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?

 

31
May
10

12
July
10

21
Nov
11

23
Jul
12

3
Sep
12

Total 18
Mar
13

Vote
ALP

Vote
Lib

Vote Greens

Work full
time

Work part time

Very concerned

28%

29%

26%

30%

27%

27%

48%

6%

48%

30%

29%

Quite concerned

17%

19%

15%

16%

15%

16%

24%

10%

25%

17%

23%

A little concerned

20%

16%

20%

15%

19%

17%

14%

21%

8%

17%

17%

Not concerned

24%

25%

27%

26%

26%

25%

4%

50%

3%

23%

15%

Don’t know

11%

11%

11%

14%

13%

15%

10%

12%

16%

13%

17%

Concern about the re-introduction of WorkChoices has not changed significantly since this question was last asked in September. 43% (up 1%) would be quite or very concerned if WorkChoices or similar laws were re-introduced and 42% (down 3%) were only a little or not concerned.

72% of Labor voters and 73% of Greens voters would be concerned. 71% of Liberal/National voters would be a little/not concerned and 16% concerned.  47% of full-time workers and 52% of part-time workers said they would be very/quite concerned.

52% of those aged 45-54 said they would be very/quite concerned.

Support for major Government decisions

Mar 18, 2013

Q. Do you support or oppose the following Government decisions?

 

26 Nov 12

18 Mar 13

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total Support

Total Oppose

Total Support

Total Oppose

Strongly support

Support

Oppose

Strongly oppose

Don’t know

NBN (National Broadband Network) – high speed broadband access across Australia

69%

20%

73%

19%

35%

38%

10%

9%

8%

The Minerals Resource Rent Tax (MRRT) – a tax on large profits of mining companies

63%

22%

57%

29%

24%

33%

15%

14%

14%

The carbon pricing scheme – a tax on industries based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit

46%

44%

44%

46%

17%

27%

20%

26%

10%

The decision which has the most support amongst respondents is the NBN, with 73% in favour and only 19% opposed – an increase in support since this question was last asked in November (from net +49 to net +54).

There is majority support from respondents for the MRRT, with 57% in favour of the tax and 29% opposed. However, this represents a significant drop in support since November – from net +41 to net +28.

Support for the carbon pricing scheme has declined a little since the last time the question was polled in November. Support has decreased from 46% to 44% and opposition increased from 44% to 46% – a change from net +2 to net -2.

Support for reducing workers on 457 visas

Mar 18, 2013

Q. Would you support or oppose Government legislation to reduce the number of overseas workers being brought to Australia under short-term 457 visas?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

58%

64%

58%

49%

Total oppose

24%

23%

28%

28%

Strongly support

29%

38%

26%

17%

Support

29%

26%

32%

32%

Oppose

15%

17%

15%

15%

Strongly oppose

9%

6%

13%

13%

Don’t know

17%

14%

13%

23%

58% said they would support Government legislation to reduce the number of overseas workers being brought to Australia under short-term 457 visas and 24% would oppose. There was majority support from both Labor (64%) and Liberal/National voters (58%).

58% of full-time workers and 57% of part-time workers supported this legislation. Strongest support came from those aged 45-64 (67%).

Trust in institutions

Mar 18, 2013

Q. How much trust do you have in the following institutions and organisations?

 

Total
trust
26
Sep
11

Total
trust
12
Jun
12

Total trust
22
Oct
12

Total trust
18
Mar
13

A lot of trust

Some trust

A little trust

No trust

Don’t know

% change

The High Court

72%

60%

63%

74%

34%

40%

13%

6%

8%

+11

The ABC

46%

54%

59%

70%

22%

48%

17%

6%

7%

+11

The Reserve Bank

67%

49%

53%

64%

21%

43%

21%

8%

7%

+11

Charitable organisations

61%

50%

53%

52%

9%

43%

33%

9%

6%

-1

Environment groups

45%

32%

36%

41%

6%

35%

33%

20%

7%

+5

The Commonwealth Public Service

  49%*

30%

33%

36%

4%

32%

37%

17%

9%

+3

Federal Parliament

55%

22%

26%

34%

4%

30%

31%

29%

6%

+8

Your local council

na

na

32%

34%

3%

31%

39%

22%

6%

+2

TV news media

na

21%

26%

30%

4%

26%

46%

20%

4%

+4

State Parliament

na

na

25%

30%

4%

26%

32%

31%

6%

+5

Newspapers

na

26%

31%

30%

3%

27%

43%

22%

5%

-1

Religious organisations

29%

27%

31%

27%

5%

22%

29%

37%

7%

-4

Online news media

na

23%

28%

27%

3%

24%

48%

20%

6%

-1

Business groups

38%

22%

25%

26%

3%

23%

42%

23%

9%

+1

Trade unions

39%

22%

23%

25%

4%

21%

31%

36%

7%

+2

Political parties

na

12%

16%

12%

1%

11%

36%

45%

6%

-4

 Note: ‘Total Trust’ is an aggregate figure achieved by adding ‘A lot of trust’ and ‘Some trust’.
* This Commonwealth Public Service figure is from a question asked in 6 Feb 12.

Since this question was last asked in October, there has been a significant increase in trust in the High Court (+11%), the ABC (+11%), the Reserve Bank (+11%) and the Federal Parliament (+8). Trust in the High Court and Reserve Bank is back to similar levels to that recorded in 2011.

Respondents had most trust in the High Court (74%), the ABC (70%), the Reserve Bank (64%) and charitable organisations (52%). They had least trust in political parties (12%), trade unions (25%), business groups (26%), online news media (27%) and religious organisations (27%).

Compared to the average, Labor voters had more trust in the ABC (77%), environment groups (50%), the Commonwealth Public Service (44%), local councils (42%), Federal Parliament (43%) and trade unions (41%).

Liberal/National voters, compared to the average, had a little more trust in religious organisations (31%) and TV news media (35%).

Party values

Mar 18, 2013

Q. Which statement best reflects your views about the Labor Party?

Q. Which statement best reflects your views about the Liberal Party?

Q. Which statement best reflects your views about the Greens?

 

Labor Party

Liberal Party

Greens

Labor voters on Labor Party

Lib/Nat voters on Liberal Party

Greens voters on Greens

The party doesn’t stand for anything

23%

22%

30%

3%

4%

Many of their politicians don’t stand by party values

43%

27%

14%

37%

23%

10%

The party has values and politicians stand by them

19%

36%

33%

44%

63%

85%

Don’t know

15%

15%

22%

16%

10%

5%

43% think that many Labor politicians don’t stand by party values – compared to 27% for the Liberal Party and 14% for the Greens.

36% think the Liberal Party has values and their politicians stand by them – compared to 33% for the Greens and 19% for the Labor Party.

63% of Liberal/National voters think the Liberal Party has values and politicians stand by them and 85% of Greens voters think the Greens have values and politicians stand by them. However, Labor voters were more divided with 44% thinking party has values and politicians stand by them and 37% thinking many of their politicians don’t stand by party values.

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