Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 19, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,925 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

22/10/12

2 weeks ago

7/11/12

Last week

12/11/12

This week

19/11/12

Liberal

44%

43%

42%

43%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

46%

45%

46%

Labor

38.0%

36%

37%

37%

36%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

8%

8%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

53%

53%

52%

53%

Labor

50.1%

47%

47%

48%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Important election issues

Nov 19, 2012

Q.  Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?

 

First

Second

Third

Total

19 Nov 12

Total

30 Jul 12

5 Dec 11

6 June 11

25 Jan 10

Management of the economy

47%

11%

9%

66%

64%

62%

61%

63%

Ensuring a quality education for all children

7%

16%

11%

35%

26%

22%

26%

23%

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

15%

22%

20%

57%

47%

47%

49%

48%

Protecting the environment

3%

6%

5%

14%

11%

13%

15%

16%

A fair industrial relations system

2%

3%

3%

8%

12%

11%

8%

na

Political leadership

6%

5%

4%

15%

25%

18%

17%

23%

Addressing climate change

2%

2%

5%

9%

9%

10%

15%

16%

Controlling interest rates

2%

5%

4%

11%

9%

11%

13%

15%

Australian jobs and protection of local industries

8%

11%

13%

32%

41%

36%

32%

33%

Ensuring a quality water supply

1%

2%

2%

5%

3%

4%

5%

12%

Housing affordability

3%

6%

5%

14%

13%

13%

16%

14%

Ensuring a fair taxation system

2%

5%

9%

17%

18%

16%

17%

14%

Security and the war on terrorism

*

1%

3%

5%

5%

4%

8%

9%

Treatment of asylum seekers

1%

1%

3%

6%

10%

8%

5%

na

Managing population growth

1%

2%

4%

7%

8%

8%

12%

na

*Not asked

66% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 57% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 35% ensuring a quality education for all children and 32% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.

Since July, there has been an increase in the importance of ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system (+10%) and ensuring a quality education for all children (+9%) and a decline in the importance of political leadership (-10%) and Australian jobs and protection of local industries (-9%).

Party trust to handle important election issues

Nov 19, 2012

Q.  Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

 

ALP

Libs

Greens

Don’t know

Difference
19
Nov 12

Difference
18
Jun 12

Management of the economy

31%

45%

2%

22%

-14

-18

Ensuring a quality education for all children

38%

33%

4%

24%

+5

-2

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

32%

35%

7%

25%

-3

-6

Protecting the environment

19%

22%

38%

21%

+16

+17

A fair industrial relations system

41%

32%

4%

23%

+9

+6

Political leadership

26%

38%

6%

30%

-12

-16

Addressing climate change

22%

23%

32%

24%

+9

+7

Controlling interest rates

28%

39%

3%

30%

-11

-18

Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries

34%

36%

4%

27%

-2

-6

Ensuring a quality water supply

21%

28%

23%

27%

-7

-12

Housing affordability

28%

33%

5%

33%

-5

-11

Ensuring a fair taxation system

30%

39%

4%

27%

-9

-10

Security and the war on terrorism

25%

40%

4%

31%

-15

-22

Treatment of asylum seekers

20%

38%

13%

29%

-18

-20

Managing population growth

22%

37%

6%

35%

-15

-19

Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.

Labor leads the Liberal Party on ensuring a quality education for all children and a fair industrial relations system. The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership, security and the war on terrorism, treatment of asylum seekers and managing population growth.

There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals on ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries. Since June, there has been a shift in Labor’s favour on most issues – especially, ensuring a quality education for all children, controlling interest rates, housing affordability and security and the war on terrorism.

Export of live animals

Nov 19, 2012

Q. Thinking about the export of live animals for slaughter, which of the following statements is closest to your view?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Australia should not export live sheep and cattle to any country at all

25%

25%

24%

35%

Australia should only export live sheep and cattle to countries which guarantee they will be treated humanely

54%

53%

55%

58%

Australia should export live sheep and cattle to any country that wants them

15%

15%

19%

5%

Don’t know

6%

7%

3%

1%

54% think that Australia should only export live sheep and cattle to countries which guarantee they will be treated humanely and 25% think Australia should not export live sheep and cattle to any country at all.

Those most opposed to exporting live sheep and cattle to any country at all were Greens voters (35%),  women (29%) and respondents aged 45-64 (30%).

Treatment of animals

Nov 19, 2012

Q. Which of the following statements comes closest to your view about the treatment of animals?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Animals deserve the same rights as people to be free from harm and exploitation

30%

30%

28%

40%

Animals deserve some protection from harm and exploitation, but it is still appropriate to use them for the benefit of humans

61%

61%

66%

55%

Animals don’t need much protection from harm and exploitation since they are just animals

4%

4%

3%

2%

Don’t know

5%

5%

3%

3%

61% think animals deserve some protection from harm and exploitation, but it is still appropriate to use them for the benefit of humans and 30% think animals deserve the same rights as people to be free from harm and exploitation. Only 4% think animals don’t need much protection from harm and exploitation since they are just animals.

Those most likely to think animals deserve the same rights as people to be free from harm and exploitation were Greens voters (40%) and women (38%).

Important outcomes from Royal Commission

Nov 19, 2012

Q. What are the most important things that should come out of the Royal Commission? (select up to 3)

 

Total

Vote ALP

Vote Libs

Vote Greens

Cath-
olic

Ang-
lican

Other Protest-
ant

Other relig-
ion

No relig-
ion

Preventing future child sexual abuse

63%

63%

63%

74%

65%

59%

62%

57%

65%

Prosecution of offenders

60%

55%

67%

48%

58%

67%

68%

53%

59%

Removing those in positions of authority who allowed the abuse to occur

39%

39%

35%

58%

27%

42%

33%

37%

48%

Giving victims the opportunity to tell their story

27%

31%

24%

28%

28%

28%

30%

27%

25%

Exposing previously unreported or unresolved allegations

27%

26%

30%

24%

28%

23%

27%

26%

29%

Exposing institutional cover-ups

24%

23%

23%

32%

22%

23%

27%

18%

26%

Compensation for victims

16%

18%

12%

15%

19%

19%

13%

18%

13%

Restoring public confidence in institutions

11%

13%

13%

4%

16%

13%

15%

11%

6%

Establishing a public record of fact regarding child sexual abuse in institutions

9%

10%

7%

8%

8%

9%

7%

10%

9%

Don’t know

4%

3%

4%

1%

5%

2%

3%

7%

4%

Prefer not to answer

1%

*

*

1%

1%

1%

Respondents think that the most important things that should come out of the Royal Commission are preventing future child abuse (63%) and prosecution of offenders (60%). 39% think that removing those in positions of authority who allowed the abuse to occur is also important.

These were clearly the top three issues for all groups except Catholics who placed somewhat less importance on removing those in positions of authority who allowed the abuse to occur (27%). Greens voters considered removing those in positions of authority who allowed the abuse to occur (58%) to be more important than prosecution of offenders (48%). Liberal/National voters thought the most important outcome should be prosecution of offenders (67%). Women were a little more likely to nominate preventing future child abuse (69%) and removing those in positions of authority who allowed the abuse to occur (43%).

Sign up for updates

Receive the Essential Report in your inbox.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.