Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 19, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,902 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

22/7/13

2 weeks ago

5/8/13

Last week

13/8/13

This week

19/8/13

Liberal

 

42%

40%

40%

41%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

45%

43%

43%

44%

Labor

38.0%

39%

38%

39%

40%

Greens

11.8%

7%

9%

8%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

10%

10%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

22/7/13

2 weeks ago

5/8/13

Last week

13/8/13

This week

19/8/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

51%

51%

50%

Labor

50.1%

49%

49%

49%

50%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Firmness of voting intention

Aug 19, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

 

Total

5 Aug

I will definitely not change my mind

46%

45%

56%

27%

16%

44%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

32%

33%

28%

37%

38%

30%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

17%

16%

11%

24%

44%

21%

Don’t know

5%

6%

4%

12%

2%

5%

46% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 32% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 17% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a firming of voting intention since this question was asked two weeks ago.

Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (24%), other party and independent voters (44%) and aged 25-34 (25%).

Attributes of the Labor Party

Aug 19, 2013

Q. Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which statements do you feel fit the Labor Party?

 

6 Jul 09

14 Mar 10

27 April 11

28 May 12

2 Apr 13

 

Total

19 Aug

Change

Divided

30%

36%

66%

73%

82%

66%

-16

Will promise to do anything to win votes

57%

63%

72%

70%

71%

65%

-6

Looks after the interests of working people

39%

47%

42%

53%

+11

Out of touch with ordinary people

44%

48%

61%

58%

63%

51%

-12

Understands the problems facing Australia

62%

54%

40%

46%

39%

50%

+11

Have a vision for the future

43%

41%

42%

49%

+7

Moderate

65%

63%

51%

50%

47%

48%

+1

Have good policies

46%

na

Clear about what they stand for

28%

31%

27%

38%

+11

Has a good team of leaders

60%

52%

34%

29%

24%

36%

+12

Extreme

25%

26%

38%

31%

38%

34%

-4

Too close to the big corporate and financial interests

46%

36%

39%

31%

-8

Trustworthy

30%

na

Keeps its promises

44%

33%

20%

22%

19%

27%

+8

The Labor Party’s main attributes were – divided (66%), will promise anything to win votes (65%), looks after the interests of working people (53%), out of touch with ordinary people (51%) and understands the problems facing Australia (50%).

Main changes since April were – divided (down 16% to 66%), has a good team of leaders (up 12% to 36%), out of touch with ordinary people (down 12% to 51%), looks after the interests of working people (up 11% to 53%), understands the problems facing Australia (up 11% to 50%) and clear about what they stand for (up 11% to 38%).

Attributes of the Liberal Party

Aug 19, 2013

Q. And which statements do you feel fit the Liberal Party?

 

6 Jul 09

14 Mar 10

27 April 11

28 May 12

2 Apr 13

 

Total

19 Aug

Change

Will promise to do anything to win votes

67%

72%

65%

63%

67%

65%

-2

Too close to the big corporate and financial interests

60%

58%

59%

60%

+1

Out of touch with ordinary people

62%

58%

54%

53%

54%

58%

+4

Have a vision for the future

48%

48%

52%

51%

-1

Moderate

50%

50%

55%

52%

52%

48%

-4

Understands the problems facing Australia

44%

43%

51%

52%

50%

48%

-2

Clear about what they stand for

44%

46%

48%

45%

-3

Extreme

36%

38%

36%

34%

35%

39%

+4

Have good policies

38%

na

Has a good team of leaders

29%

31%

40%

39%

41%

36%

-5

Looks after the interests of working people

38%

40%

40%

36%

-4

Keeps its promises

28%

23%

33%

34%

34%

32%

-2

Divided

74%

66%

49%

37%

32%

31%

-1

Trustworthy

30%

na

The Liberal Party’s main attributes were – will promise anything to win votes (65%), too close to the big corporate and financial interest (60%), out of touch with ordinary people (58%) and have a vision for the future (51%).

The only substantial change since April was a drop in the figure for “has a good team of leaders” – down 5% to 36%.

Party attributes comparison – Labor vs Liberal

Aug 19, 2013
 

Labor

Liberal

Difference

Divided

66%

31%

+35

Looks after the interests of working people

53%

36%

+17

Have good policies

46%

38%

+8

Understands the problems facing Australia

50%

48%

+2

Will promise to do anything to win votes

65%

65%

Moderate

48%

48%

Has a good team of leaders

36%

36%

Trustworthy

30%

30%

Have a vision for the future

49%

51%

-2

Extreme

34%

39%

-5

Keeps its promises

27%

32%

-5

Out of touch with ordinary people

51%

58%

-7

Clear about what they stand for

38%

45%

-7

Too close to the big corporate and financial interests

31%

60%

-29

The Labor Party is viewed more favourably than the Liberal Party in terms of looking after the interest of working people, being too close to the big corporate and financial interests, having good policies and less out of touch with ordinary people.

The Liberal Party is seen more favourably in terms of being divided and clear about what they stand for.

Trust in media coverage of election campaign

Aug 19, 2013

Q. How much trust do you have in the way the following media have reported and commented on the election campaign so far?

 

Total a lot/sometrust

 

A lot of trust

Some trust

Not much trust

No trust at all

Don’t know

Don’t use

ABC TV

58%

22%

36%

10%

7%

8%

17%

SBS TV

52%

16%

36%

9%

5%

10%

24%

Commercial TV

29%

3%

26%

34%

19%

9%

9%

ABC radio

49%

16%

33%

10%

8%

8%

25%

Commercial radio

25%

4%

21%

27%

19%

10%

18%

The Australian

31%

5%

26%

15%

16%

9%

27%

The Telegraph (NSW)

25%

7%

18%

21%

28%

7%

19%

Sydney Morning Herald (NSW)

39%

7%

32%

21%

16%

8%

17%

The Age (Victoria)

42%

7%

35%

21%

13%

9%

15%

Herald Sun (Victoria)

30%

5%

25%

25%

26%

8%

12%

Courier Mail (Queensland)

23%

2%

21%

20%

21%

9%

27%

The most trusted media for coverage of the election campaign were ABC TV (58% trust), SBS TV (52%) and ABC radio (49%).

The most trusted newspapers were The Age (42%) and the Sydney Morning Herald (39%).

The least trusted media were the Courier Mail (23%), The Telegraph (25%) and commercial radio (25%).

Shifted voting position

Aug 19, 2013

Q. Since the election campaign began, have you shifted your position on voting in any of the following ways?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Yes, I have changed my mind about who I will vote for

6%

6%

5%

10%

Yes, I have become more certain about who I will vote for

13%

17%

8%

22%

Yes, I have become less certain about who I will vote for

11%

9%

7%

18%

No, I haven’t changed my position at all about who I will vote for

62%

63%

76%

42%

Don’t know

8%

5%

3%

8%

62% of respondents said they had not changed their voting position since the election campaign began. 6% said they had changed their vote, 13% had become more certain about their vote and 11% less certain. 17% of Labor voters said they had become more certain while 76% of Liberal/National voters had not changed their position at all.

51% of respondents aged 18-34 had not changed their voting position compared to 65% of those aged 35-54 and 72% of those aged 55+.

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