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  • Aug, 2012

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

     Sample size = 1,864 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    23/7/12

    2 weeks ago

    6/8/12

    Last week

    13/8/12

    This week

    20/8/12

    Liberal

    45%

    46%

    46%

    46%

    National

    4%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    49%

    49%

    49%

    49%

    Labor

    38.0%

    33%

    33%

    32%

    32%

    Greens

    11.8%

    10%

    10%

    10%

    10%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    8%

    8%

    9%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    56%

    56%

    56%

    57%

    Labor

    50.1%

    44%

    44%

    44%

    43%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

  • Aug, 2012

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    Power Costs

    Q. Over the last few years, have your gas and/or electricity costs increased, decreased or stayed much the same?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total increased

    86%

    84%

    90%

    72%

    Increased a lot

    42%

    35%

    48%

    23%

    Increased a moderate amount

    29%

    30%

    30%

    31%

    Increased a little

    15%

    19%

    12%

    18%

    Stayed about the same

    7%

    9%

    5%

    13%

    Decreased a little

    1%

    1%

    1%

    1%

    Decreased a moderate amount

    *

    *

    2%

    Decreased a lot

    1%

    2%

    *

    4%

    Don’t know

    4%

    4%

    2%

    8%

    42% think that gas and electricity prices have increased a lot over the last few years and 29% think they have increased a moderate amount. Only 9% think they have stayed about the same or decreased.

    Those most likely to think they have increased a lot were aged 45+ (49%), Liberal/National voters (48%) and Victorians (47%).

  • Aug, 2012

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    Responsibility for Power Prices

    Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Increased a lot

    Increased a moderate amount

    Increased a little

    Stayed the same or decreased

    The Federal Government

    28%

    16%

    40%

    18%

    40%

    22%

    19%

    22%

    The State Government

    23%

    27%

    21%

    28%

    23%

    28%

    21%

    18%

    The power companies

    37%

    50%

    28%

    42%

    32%

    42%

    44%

    38%

    Don’t know

    12%

    7%

    10%

    12%

    6%

    9%

    17%

    21%

    37% think the power companies are mainly responsible for electricity and gas prices, 28% think the Federal Government is mainly responsible and 23% think the State Governments are mainly responsible.

    Those who think power prices have increased a lot are more likely to think the Federal Government is mainly responsible (40%), while those who think prices have increased a moderate amount, a little or not at all think the power companies are mainly responsible.

    50% of Labor voters think the power companies are mainly responsible and 40% of Liberal/National voters think the Federal Government is mainly responsible.

  • Aug, 2012

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    Price Increases Since Carbon Tax

    Q. Since the carbon tax was introduced on 1st July, have you noticed any increase in the costs of goods or services?

     

    Total

    9 July

    Total

    20 Aug

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Yes, have noticed an increase in costs

    31%

    52%

    34%

    68%

    29%

    No, have not noticed any increase in costs

    54%

    36%

    54%

    21%

    64%

    Don’t know

    15%

    12%

    12%

    11%

    7%

    52% say they have noticed an increase in the costs of goods or services since the carbon tax was introduced – up 21% from 31% recorded the week after the carbon tax was introduced – and 36% say they have not noticed any increase in costs.

    Those most likely to say they have noticed an increase in costs were aged 35-54 (56%) and Liberal/National voters (68%).

  • Aug, 2012

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    Main Reason for Price Increases

    Q. Do you believe these price increases are due mainly to the carbon tax, or mainly due to other reasons? *

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Mainly due to carbon tax

    72%

    53%

    81%

    70%

    Mainly due to other reasons

    17%

    36%

    9%

    18%

    Don’t know

    11%

    12%

    10%

    13%

    * based on the 52% who have noticed price increases

    72% of those who said they had noticed cost increases think it is mainly dues to the carbon tax.

    Those most likely to blame the carbon tax were Liberal/National voters (81%), aged under 35 (78%) and those earning over $1,000pw (76%).

  • Aug, 2012

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    Approval of Recommendations on Asylum Seekers

    Q. An expert panel appointed by the Federal Government has made a number of recommendations for handling asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat. Do you approve or disapprove of the following recommendations?

     

    Total approve

    Total disapprove

    Strongly approve

    Approve

    Dis-approve

    Strongly disapprove

    Don’t know

    Expanding Australia’s humanitarian program immediately from 13,500 places per year to 20,000

    42%

    46%

    13%

    29%

    20%

    26%

    12%

    Limiting the ways refugees who have arrived by boat can bring their families to Australia

    72%

    18%

    40%

    32%

    11%

    7%

    11%

    Reopening detention facilities in Nauru and Manus Islands

    67%

    18%

    36%

    31%

    11%

    7%

    14%

    Detaining offshore refugees who have arrived by boat for several years

    47%

    39%

    26%

    21%

    22%

    17%

    13%

    Pursuing a people swap deal with Malaysia as the basis for a regional solution

    30%

    47%

    11%

    19%

    22%

    25%

    23%

    Consider turning back boats in the future but only if special conditions are met

    66%

    21%

    35%

    31%

    11%

    10%

    13%

    There was strong majority approval of the recommendations to limit the ways refugees who have arrived by boat can bring their families to Australia (72%), reopen detention facilities in Nauru and Manus Islands (67%) and consider turning back boats (66%). Respondents were a little more in favour of detaining offshore refugees for several years (47% approve/39% disapprove) and divided over expanding Australia’s humanitarian program (42%/46%). 47% disapproved of pursuing a people swap deal with Malaysia as the basis for a regional solution.

    48% of Labor voters and 81% of Greens voters approved expanding Australia’s humanitarian aid but 54% of Liberal/National voters disapproved.

    48% of Labor voters approved pursuing a people swap deal with Malaysia but 59% of Liberal/National voters disapproved.

    45% of Labor voters and 81% of Liberal/National voters approved turning back boats but 56% of Greens voters disapproved.

    Men favoured detaining refugees for several years (58% approve/31% disapprove while women were more likely to be opposed (38% approve/46% disapprove).

  • Aug, 2012

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    Approval of Accepting all Recommendations

    Q. The Federal Government and the Opposition have agreed to implement all of these recommendations. Do you approve or disapprove of implementing all the recommendations of the panel?

     

    Total

     

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total approve

    62%

    65%

    70%

    34%

    Total disapprove

    21%

    22%

    16%

    56%

    Strongly approve

    17%

    17%

    22%

    3%

    Approve

    45%

    48%

    48%

    31%

    Disapprove

    16%

    19%

    12%

    33%

    Strongly disapprove

    5%

    3%

    4%

    23%

    Don’t know

    16%

    13%

    13%

    10%

    62% approved of implementing all of the panel’s recommendations – 65% of Labor voters, 70% of Liberal/National voters but only 34% of Greens voters.

    Those most likely to approve were men (68%), aged 55+ (75%) and those on incomes under $600pw (70%).

    Correction: We have been advised that the Coalition has not formally responded to each the recommendations of the Houston Panel. Our question was framed soon after the release of the expert panel’s report when it appeared that the Coalition would accept the panel’s recommendations. Therefore, the responses to this question may not accurately represent public opinion.

  • Aug, 2012

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    Effectiveness of Recommendations

    Q. How effective do you think the panel recommendations will be in terms of –

     

    Very effective

    Quite effective

    A little effective

    Not effective

    Don’t know

    Stopping boats of asylum seekers landing in Australia

    12%

    19%

    34%

    24%

    11%

    Providing fair treatment for genuine asylum seekers

    11%

    29%

    32%

    18%

    11%

    Keeping Government costs down

    8%

    13%

    27%

    36%

    16%

    31% think the recommendations will be very/quite effective in stopping boats, 40% very/quite effective in providing fair treatment for genuine asylum seekers and 21% very/quite effective in keeping Government costs down.

    38% of Liberal/National voters, 32% of Labor voters and 15% of Greens voters think they will be very/quite effective in stopping boats.

    48% of Liberal/National voters, 41% of Labor voters and 16% of Greens voters think they will be very/quite effective in providing fair treatment for genuine asylum seekers.

    27% of Liberal/National voters, 20% of Labor voters and 12% of Greens voters think they will be very/quite effective in keeping Government costs down.

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