Federal politics – voting intention

May 20, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,924 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

22/4/13

2 weeks ago

6/5/13

Last week

13/5/13

This week

20/5/13

Liberal

44%

44%

44%

45%

National

3%

4%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

34%

33%

34%

35%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

10%

10%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

56%

55%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

45%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Impact of Budget

May 20, 2013

Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for you personally?

Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for average working people?

Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for Australian businesses?

Q. Do you think the Federal Budget was good or bad for the Australian economy overall?

 

You
personally

Working people

Australian
businesses

Economy
overall

 

10

11

12

13

12

13

10

11

12

13

10

11

12

13

Total good

22%

11%

17%

13%

31%

17%

27%

20%

10%

15%

36%

27%

26%

26%

Total bad

26%

29%

26%

36%

24%

40%

32%

25%

43%

33%

28%

29%

32%

34%

Very good

3%

2%

2%

2%

4%

2%

3%

3%

1%

2%

6%

4%

4%

5%

Good

19%

9%

15%

11%

27%

15%

24%

17%

9%

13%

30%

23%

22%

21%

Neither good
nor bad

33%

44%

44%

38%

33%

30%

9%

31%

29%

32%

10%

25%

25%

24%

Bad

18%

21%

17%

22%

19%

27%

22%

19%

28%

20%

18%

21%

21%

21%

Very bad

8%

8%

9%

14%

5%

13%

10%

6%

15%

13%

10%

8%

11%

13%

Don’t know

20%

16%

12%

12%

12%

12%

31%

23%

18%

19%

26%

20%

17%

15%

In terms of the economy overall, there was a similar response to the 2013 budget as to the last two year’s budgets. 26% (no change from last year) thought the budget was good for the economy and 34% (up 2%) thought it was bad.  56% of Labor voters thought the budget was good for the economy and 8% bad while only 8% of Liberal/national voters thought it was good and 56% bad.

38% of respondents thought the Federal budget was neither good nor bad for them personally – 13% (down 4% on last year) said it was good and 36% (up 10%) bad. 51% of those aged 55+ thought it was neither.

17% (down 14%) thought it was good for working people and 40% (up 16%) thought it was bad.

15% (up 5%) thought the budget was good for businesses, 33% (down 10%) bad and 32% said it was neither.

Government spending cuts

May 20, 2013

Q. Do you think the Federal Budget has cut Government spending by too much, not enough or about the right amount?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Cut spending too much

20%

20%

19%

23%

Not cut spending enough

34%

13%

54%

25%

Cut spending about right amount

21%

42%

9%

29%

Don’t know

25%

25%

18%

23%

34% thought that the Federal budget had not cut Government spending enough. 20% thought it had cut spending too much and 21% thought it had cut spending about right.

42% of Labor voters thought the spending cuts were about right while 54% of Liberal/National voters thought spending had not been cut enough.

Liberal Party and WorkChoices

May 20, 2013

Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?

 

31 May 10

12
July

21
Nov
11

23
Jul
12

3
Sept

18
Mar
13

 

Total 20 May

Vote
ALP

Vote
Lib

Vote Greens

Work full
time

Work part time

Total likely

58%

56%

51%

53%

51%

48%

51%

78%

28%

84%

50%

47%

Total unlikely

21%

24%

27%

22%

25%

28%

27%

9%

48%

7%

29%

25%

Very likely

28%

26%

22%

26%

23%

25%

26%

49%

5%

57%

25%

19%

Quite likely

30%

30%

29%

27%

28%

23%

25%

29%

23%

27%

25%

28%

Not very likely

18%

18%

19%

16%

18%

19%

16%

5%

29%

7%

18%

14%

Not at all likely

3%

6%

8%

6%

7%

9%

11%

4%

19%

11%

11%

Don’t know

20%

20%

22%

26%

24%

25%

23%

12%

24%

9%

22%

28%

Respondents were a little more likely to think that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices than when a similar question was asked in March. 51% (up 3%) think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 27% (down 1%) think it is unlikely.

78% (up 11%) of Labor voters and 84% (up 17%) of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters split 28% likely (down 3%) to 48% unlikely (up 4%).

Concern about Liberals bringing back WorkChoices

May 20, 2013

Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?  

 

31 May 10

12 July

21 Nov 11

23 Jul 12

3
Sep

18 Mar 13

Total 20 May

Vote Labor

Vote Lib

Vote Greens

Work full time

Work part time

Very concerned

28%

29%

26%

30%

27%

27%

26%

50%

5%

62%

25%

24%

Quite concerned

17%

19%

15%

16%

15%

16%

15%

22%

12%

15%

16%

13%

A little concerned

20%

16%

20%

15%

19%

17%

17%

12%

22%

5%

20%

18%

Not concerned

24%

25%

27%

26%

26%

25%

27%

8%

48%

13%

27%

25%

Don’t know

11%

11%

11%

14%

13%

15%

14%

8%

14%

4%

11%

19%

Concern about the re-introduction of WorkChoices has not changed significantly since this question was last asked in March. 41% (down 2%) would be quite or very concerned if WorkChoices or similar laws were re-introduced and 44% (up 2%) were only a little or not concerned.

72% of Labor voters and 77% of Greens voters would be concerned. 70% of Liberal/National voters would be a little/not concerned and 17% concerned.  41% of full-time workers and 37% of part-time workers said they would be very/quite concerned.

45% of those aged 25-64 said they would be very/quite concerned.

Importance of unions

May 20, 2013

Q. And how important are unions for Australian working people today?

 

19 Mar 2012

10 Sept 12

Total

20 May 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Work full time

Work part time

Total important

56%

52%

56%

80%

38%

70%

54%

57%

Total not Important

35%

38%

36%

12%

59%

23%

39%

36%

Very important

19%

16%

21%

35%

8%

38%

18%

26%

Quite important

37%

36%

35%

45%

30%

32%

36%

31%

Not very important

27%

28%

24%

11%

36%

18%

25%

27%

Not at all important

8%

10%

12%

1%

23%

5%

14%

9%

Don’t know

9%

10%

8%

7%

3%

7%

7%

7%

The majority of respondents regarded unions to be important for Australian working people today (56%), whilst 36% believe that they were not important.  Belief that they are important increased 4 points from 52% in September 2012 to 56% in this week’s results.

80% of Labor voters and 70% of Greens voters believed that unions were important for Australian working people today, while Coalition voters were the most likely to regard unions as not important (59%).

The majority of full time workers (54%) and part time workers (57%) regarded unions as important for Australian working people today.

 

Better or worse off with stronger unions

May 20, 2013

Q. Overall, would workers be better off or worse off if unions in Australia were stronger?

10 Sept 12

Total

20 May 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Work full time

Work part time

Total better off

39%

43%

65%

28%

61%

43%

44%

Total worse off

30%

29%

11%

50%

10%

32%

28%

A lot better off

13%

14%

23%

7%

26%

15%

14%

A little better off

26%

29%

42%

21%

35%

28%

30%

A little worse off

15%

14%

9%

19%

9%

15%

16%

A lot worse off

15%

15%

2%

31%

1%

17%

12%

Make no difference

15%

12%

10%

12%

16%

13%

11%

Don’t know

15%

14%

13%

10%

12%

12%

17%

The perception that workers would be better off with stronger unions has increased since this question was asked in September last year. 43% (up 4%)  felt that workers would be better off if unions in Australia were stronger and 29% (down 1%) that believed workers would be worse off.

By voting intention, 65% of Labor voters and 61% of Greens voters believed that workers would be better off while Coalition voters were by far the most likely to believe that workers would be worse off (50%).

51% of respondents on incomes of $600-$1,000pw thought that workers would be better off with stronger unions.

Penalty rates

May 20, 2013

Q. Do you think people who are required to work outside of normal hours – like night shifts, weekends or public holidays – should receive a higher hourly rate of pay?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Yes

81%

88%

74%

92%

No

12%

7%

19%

5%

Don’t know

7%

5%

7%

3%

81% of respondents agreed that people who are required to work outside of normal hours – like night shifts, weekends or public holidays – should receive a higher hourly rate of pay.

79% of full-time workers and 88% of part-time workers agreed.