Federal politics – voting intention

May 21, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,918 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

23/4/12

2 weeks ago

7/5/12

Last week

14/5/12

This week

21/5/12

Liberal

45%

47%

47%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

50%

50%

49%

Labor

38.0%

31%

29%

30%

33%

Greens

11.8%

11%

11%

11%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

58%

57%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

42%

43%

44

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Interest Rates

May 21, 2012

Q. As far as you know, are interest rates currently higher or lower than when the Labor Government was elected in 2007?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total higher

20%

17%

24%

14%

Total lower

35%

44%

36%

42%

A lot higher

4%

3%

6%

1%

A little higher

16%

14%

18%

13%

About the same

18%

17%

22%

12%

A little lower

25%

31%

26%

31%

A lot lower

10%

13%

10%

11%

Don’t know

26%

21%

19%

33%

20% of respondents think interest rates are currently higher than when the Labor Government was elected in 2007 and 35% think they are lower. 18% think they are about the same.

Respondents most likely to think interest rates are lower were men (44%) and those aged 55+ (51%). 39% of respondents aged under 35 didn’t know.

Comments »

Opinion of Interest Rates

May 21, 2012

Q. In fact, the official interest rate is a lot lower – it is now 3.75% compared to 6.75% when the Labor Government was elected in 2007. Do you think it is good or bad that interest rates have fallen?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

54%

66%

47%

57%

Total bad

14%

8%

20%

4%

Very good

19%

29%

13%

21%

Good

35%

37%

34%

36%

Neither good nor bad

24%

21%

26%

28%

Bad

10%

4%

15%

4%

Very bad

4%

4%

5%

Don’t know

9%

4%

6%

11%

 54% think that it is good that interest rates have fallen – 14% think it is bad.

61% of respondents aged 35-54 think the fall in rates is good compared to 37% of those aged 65+. There were not major differences across income groups.

Comments »

Credit for Interest Rates

May 21, 2012

Q. How much credit do you give the policies of the Labor Government for this fall in interest rates?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

A lot

7%

19%

2%

9%

A fair amount

19%

38%

9%

23%

A little

27%

28%

22%

38%

None

35%

7%

59%

15%

Don’t know

12%

9%

6%

15%

Only 26% give the policies of the Labor Government a lot or a fair amount of credit for the fall in interest rates. 35% give them no credit at all.

57% of Labor voters and 11% of Coalition voters give the Government a lot or a fair amount of credit.

Those most likely to give a lot or a fair amount of credit to Labor Government policies were men (30%), aged under 35 (31%), and incomes under $1,000pw (32%).

Comments »

Benefit from Casual/Contract Jobs

May 21, 2012

Q. The number of people working in casual and contract jobs is increasing. Who do you think benefits most from the increasing number of casual and contract jobs?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Workers

7%

6%

8%

3%

Employers

55%

62%

52%

72%

Both equally

28%

25%

32%

17%

Don’t know

10%

8%

8%

8%

A majority of respondents (55%) think that employers benefit most from the increasing number of casual and contract jobs. Only 7% think workers benefit most and 28% think both groups benefit equally.

60% of full time workers and 49% of part-time workers think employers benefit most. Those on higher incomes are also more liklely to think employers benefit most (62% of those on incomes over $1,600pw). For those on low incomes (under $600pw),  54% think employers benefit most, 4% workers and 34% think both benefit equally.

Comments »

More Permanent Jobs

May 21, 2012

Q. Do you think employers should be required to provide more permanent jobs (instead of casual and contract jobs) or is it a matter best left for the employer to decide?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Should be required to provide more permanent jobs

48%

59%

39%

59%

A decision best left to the employer

41%

30%

52%

33%

Don’t know

11%

12%

6%

8%

48% think employers should be required to provider more permanent jobs and 41% think it is a matter best left for the employer to decide.

52% of full-time workers think employers should be required to provide more permanent jobs and 39% think it is a decision best left to the employer.

44% of part-time workers think employers should be required to provide more permanent jobs and 41% think it is a decision best left to the employer.

Comments »

Class Warfare

May 21, 2012

Q. The Federal Opposition has accused the Government of “class warfare” for criticising and increasing taxes for Australia’s richest people and companies. The Government says they are just trying to ensure that all Australians benefit from the mining boom and other wealth derived from Australia’s resources and economic development.  Which position do you most agree with?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The Government

46%

77%

20%

77%

The Opposition

28%

5%

56%

5%

Don’t know

26%

18%

25%

18%

28% agree with the Federal Opposition’s claim that the Government is carrying out “class warfare” and 46% agree with the Government’s position that they are just trying to ensure that all Australians benefit from the mining boom.

Those on higher incomes were only a little more likely to agree with the Opposition. For those earning less than $600pw, 53% agree with the Government and 23% agree with the Opposition. For those on incomes over $1,600pw, 45% agree with the Government and 31% with the Opposition.

Comments »

Mining Boom

May 21, 2012

Q. Has the mining boom been good or bad for –

 

Total good

Total bad

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

Don’t know

The economy generally

75%

7%

30%

45%

12%

5%

2%

6%

Other Australian industries

50%

16%

12%

38%

26%

12%

4%

9%

Jobs generally

61%

12%

16%

45%

21%

9%

3%

7%

You personally

21%

10%

6%

15%

60%

7%

3%

9%

A substantial majority think that the mining boom has been good for the economy generally (75%) and jobs generally (61%). 50% think that it has been good for other Australian industries.

However, most (60%) think it has been neither good nor bad for themselves personally – 21% think it has been good and 10% bad.

Those most likely to think the mining boom had been good for them personally were aged 25-34 (31%), full-time workers (26%) and those on incomes over $1,600pw (27%).

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