Federal politics – voting intention

Apr 22, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,905 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

25/3/13

2 weeks ago

8/4/13

Last week

15/4/13

This week

22/4/13

Liberal

45%

47%

44%

44%

National

2%

2%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

49%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

33%

32%

34%

34%

Greens

11.8%

11%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

56%

55%

55%

Labor

50.1%

46%

44%

45%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

War against Iraq

Apr 22, 2013

Q. It is now 10 years since Australia went to war in Iraq. Do you think it was the right or wrong decision for Australia to go to war against Iraq?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Right decision

23%

22%

30%

7%

Wrong decision

51%

56%

42%

76%

Don’t know

26%

21%

28%

18%

51% believe Australia made the wrong decision to go to war in Iraq and 23% think it was the right decision.

Those most likely to say it was the wrong decision were Greens voters (76%), Labor voters (56%) and people aged 45-64 (56%).

30% of Liberal/National voters and 30% of men thought it was the right decision.

Reason for war against Iraq

Apr 22, 2013

Q. What do you think was the main reason John Howard’ s Government joined the war in Iraq?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

They believed Iraq had weapons of mass destruction

18%

15%

26%

5%

To ensure access to Iraq’s oil

9%

12%

6%

8%

To support the USA

56%

62%

49%

76%

To remove Saddam Hussein

7%

6%

8%

2%

Don’t know

10%

5%

11%

8%

A majority (56%) thought that the main reason Australia joined the war in Iraq was to support the USA. Only 18% thought the main reason was that they believed Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.

Those most likely to think that the main reason was they believed  Iraq had weapons of mass destruction were Liberal/National voters (26%) and people aged 65+ (30%).

John Howard’s reason for war against Iraq

Apr 22, 2013

Q.  John Howard has said that regardless of whether Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction or not, the decision was right because it was in Australia’s national interests, and the removal of Saddam Hussein’s regime provided the Iraqi people with opportunities for freedom. Do you agree or disagree?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total agree

44%

35%

58%

16%

Total disagree

37%

50%

23%

58%

Strongly agree

10%

7%

15%

1%

Agree

34%

28%

43%

15%

Disagree

20%

24%

15%

21%

Strongly Disagree

17%

26%

8%

37%

Don’t know

19%

15%

19%

26%

44% agreed and 37% disagreed with John Howard’s argument that regardless of whether Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction or not, the decision was right because it was in Australia’s national interests, and the removal of Saddam Hussein’s regime provided the Iraqi people with opportunities for freedom.

58% of Liberal/National voters agreed while 58% of Greens voters and 50% of Labor voters disagreed.

Same sex marriage

Apr 22, 2013

Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?

 

15 Nov 10

14 Mar 11

4 Jul 11

13 Aug 12

24 Sep 12

Total

22 Apr 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Should be allowed to marry

53%

49%

54%

54%

55%

54%

64%

42%

89%

Should not be allowed to marry

36%

40%

35%

33%

36%

33%

26%

44%

3%

Don’t know

11%

10%

11%

13%

9%

13%

10%

13%

8%

There has been little movement in the figures since the last time the question was polled last September: with a 1% decrease in those in favour of same sex marriage (54%) and a 3% decrease in those opposed (33%).

There has been little movement in the results in the two years since the question was first polled in November 2010.

Those most in favour of same sex marriage were Greens voters (89%), Labor voters (64%) and women (62%). 44% of Liberal/National voters, 40% of men and 50% of people aged 65+ opposed.

Opinion of Gonski report recommendations

Apr 22, 2013

Q. The Gonski report on funding education has recommended a new model for school funding that would mean all students are entitled to a set level of funding regardless of where they go to school, disadvantaged schools receive more funding and taxpayer funding for private schools is adjusted down based on parents’ capacity to pay.

Do you support or oppose these recommendations?

 

27 Feb 12

30 Jul 12

Total

22 Apr 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

68%

65%

62%

77%

49%

76%

Total oppose

13%

14%

18%

6%

31%

5%

Strongly support

25%

25%

25%

42%

12%

41%

Support

43%

40%

37%

35%

37%

35%

Oppose

9%

10%

11%

4%

18%

4%

Strongly oppose

4%

4%

7%

2%

13%

1%

Don’t know

19%

20%

20%

16%

20%

19%

62% say they support the recommendations of the Gonski report on funding education and 18% were opposed. Support has weakened very slightly (-3%) since this question was asked last July.

Strongest support was shown by Labor voters (77%) and Greens voters (76%).

Since last July, support from Liberal/National voters has dropped from 59% to 49% and opposition increased from 20% to 31%.

Government’s plan for education funding

Apr 22, 2013

Q. The Government has announced a plan to implement the Gonski recommendations by providing substantially increased funding for public schools, some increased funding for private schools and some reduction in funding for universities. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s plan?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

40%

60%

28%

42%

Total disapprove

43%

25%

59%

42%

Strongly approve

12%

23%

5%

14%

Approve

28%

37%

23%

28%

Disapprove

25%

15%

33%

30%

Strongly disapprove

18%

10%

26%

12%

Don’t know

17%

16%

13%

15%

40% approved the Government’s plan for implementing the Gonski recommendations and 43% disapproved. 60% of Labor voters approved and 59% of Liberal/National voters disapproved. Greens voters were split.

By income, for those earning $600-$1,600pw, 47% approve and 37% disapprove while for those earning over $1,600 pw, 36% approve and 50% disapprove.

Spending by a Liberal Government

Apr 22, 2013

Q. If the Liberal Party won Government at the next election, do you think they would increase or decrease spending on the following areas or spend about the same as the Labor Government?

 

Increase spending

Decrease spending

Spend about the same

Don’t know

Public schools

22%

30%

33%

15%

Private schools

28%

27%

28%

16%

Universities

18%

29%

36%

16%

Support for manufacturing industries

26%

23%

32%

19%

Pensions

19%

32%

36%

14%

Welfare support

12%

45%

28%

14%

Health and hospitals

33%

27%

25%

14%

The environment

11%

39%

34%

16%

Defence

31%

19%

34%

16%

Foreign aid

8%

41%

33%

18%

Public transport

23%

26%

35%

16%

Roads

26%

22%

36%

16%

Border security

44%

14%

28%

14%

The arts

7%

40%

32%

21%

Subsidies for business

34%

20%

28%

18%

Overall, respondents were more likely to think a Liberal Government would reduce spending on welfare support, the arts, the environment, foreign aid, pensions, public schools and universities. They were more likely to think they would increase spending on  border security, defence and subsidies for business.

Liberal voters thought a Liberal Government would be more likely to increase than decrease spending on public schools, manufacturing industries, pensions, public transport, health and hospitals, defence, roads, border security and subsidies for business.

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