Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 23, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,854 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

25/6/12

2 weeks ago

9/7/12

Last week

16/7/12

This week

23/7/12

Liberal

46%

46%

46%

45%

National

3%

4%

3%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

31%

31%

33%

Greens

11.8%

10%

11%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

9%

9%

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

56%

57%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

43%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Liberal Party and WorkChoices

Jul 23, 2012

Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?

 

31 May 10

12 July 10

21 Nov 11

Total

23 Jul 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Work full time

Work part time

Total likely

58%

56%

51%

53%

78%

40%

55%

53%

53%

Total unlikely

21%

24%

27%

22%

11%

34%

14%

24%

15%

Very likely

28%

26%

22%

26%

52%

9%

38%

27%

23%

Quite likely

30%

30%

29%

27%

26%

31%

17%

26%

30%

Not very likely

18%

18%

19%

16%

6%

26%

13%

18%

11%

Not at all likely

3%

6%

8%

6%

5%

8%

1%

6%

4%

Don’t know

20%

20%

22%

26%

11%

26%

30%

23%

32%

Respondents were a little more likely to think that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices than when a similar question was asked last year. 53% (up 2%) think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 22% (down 5%) think it is unlikely.

78% of Labor voters and 55% of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters are split 40% likely (up 7%) to 34% unlikely (down 10%).

Concern about Liberals Bringing Back WorkChoices

Jul 23, 2012

Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?  

 

31 May 10

12 July 10

21 Nov 11

Total

23 Jul 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Work full time

Work part time

Very concerned

28%

29%

26%

30%

60%

7%

39%

33%

28%

Quite concerned

17%

19%

15%

16%

16%

14%

17%

16%

21%

A little concerned

20%

16%

20%

15%

11%

18%

20%

14%

17%

Not concerned

24%

25%

27%

26%

7%

48%

5%

28%

19%

Don’t know

11%

11%

11%

14%

6%

12%

20%

11%

15%

Respondents were also more concerned about the re-introduction of WorkChoices than last year. 46% (up 5%) would be quite or very concerned if WorkChoices or similar laws were re-introduced and 41% (down 6%) were only a little or not concerned.

76% of Labor voters and 56% of Greens voters would be concerned. 66% of Liberal/National voters would be a little/not concerned and 21% concerned.  49% of full-time workers and part-time workers said they would be very/quite concerned.

51% of those aged 45-64 said they would be very/quite concerned.

Australian Workers under a Liberal Government

Jul 23, 2012

Q. Do you think Australian workers would be better off or worse off under a Liberal Government lead by Tony Abbott?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Work full time

Work part time

Total better off

32%

8%

65%

8%

35%

27%

Total worse off

37%

75%

4%

65%

34%

40%

A lot better off

15%

3%

33%

17%

12%

A little better off

17%

5%

32%

8%

18%

15%

Make no difference

19%

12%

22%

15%

21%

20%

A little worse off

9%

12%

3%

17%

10%

11%

A lot worse off

28%

63%

1%

48%

24%

29%

Don’t know

11%

5%

8%

12%

9%

12%

32% think that Australian workers would be better off under a Liberal Government lead by Tony Abbott and 37% think they would be worse off – and 19% think it would make no difference.

Full-time workers split 35% better off and 34% worse off while part-time workers were more likely to think workers would be worse off (40% worse off/27% better off).

43% of respondents aged 45-64 think workers would be worse off and 31% better off. 40% of those earning under $1,000 pw thought workers would be worse off and 33% better off.

Surveillance and Intelligence-gathering

Jul 23, 2012

Q. The Government has recently proposed a number of amendments to the laws governing surveillance and intelligence-gathering. Do you support or oppose the following suggestions?

 

Total support

Total oppose

Strongly support

Support

Oppose

Strongly oppose

Don’t know

Extend the power of government agencies to intercept communications from major to lesser offences

40%

37%

9%

31%

21%

16%

24%

Enable government agencies to intercept messages on social media sites like Twitter and Facebook

40%

46%

10%

30%

26%

20%

14%

Require internet service providers to keep a record of every customers’ internet usage for 2 years

28%

57%

7%

21%

26%

31%

14%

Making it an offence not to assist government agencies with decryption e.g. reveal your password

26%

60%

8%

18%

28%

32%

15%

Allowing ASIO agents to plant or destroy material on computers if they have a warrant

27%

52%

7%

20%

23%

29%

20%

A majority of respondents were opposed to making it an offence not to assist government agencies with decryption e.g. reveal your password (60%), requiring internet service providers to keep a record of every customers’ internet usage for 2 years (57%) and allowing ASIO agents to plant or destroy material on computers if they have a warrant (52%).

They were more evenly divided over enabling government agencies to intercept messages on social media sites like Twitter and Facebook (40% support/46% oppose) and extending the power of government agencies to intercept communications from major to lesser offences (40% support/37% oppose).

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