Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 23, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,980 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

24/6/13

2 weeks ago

8/7/13

Last week

15/7/13

This week

23/7/13

Liberal

 

44%

42%

42%

42%

National

3%

4%

4%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

46%

46%

45%

Labor

38.0%

34%

38%

39%

39%

Greens

11.8%

8%

8%

7%

7%

Other/Independent

6.6%

11%

7%

8%

9%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

24/6/13

2 weeks ago

8/7/13

Last week

15/7/13

This week

23/7/13

Liberal National

49.9%

55%

52%

52%

51%

Labor

50.1%

45%

48%

48%

49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Most important election issues

Jul 23, 2013

Q.  Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?

 

Total

23 Jul 13

 

Total

17 Jun 13

11 Feb 13

19 Nov 12

30 Jul 12

5 Dec 11

6 June 11

25 Jan 10

Management of the economy

45%

47%

62%

66%

64%

62%

61%

63%

Ensuring a quality education for all children

25%

25%

29%

35%

26%

22%

26%

23%

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

42%

45%

52%

57%

47%

47%

49%

48%

Protecting the environment

12%

13%

14%

14%

11%

13%

15%

16%

A fair industrial relations system

10%

10%

12%

8%

12%

11%

8%

na

Political leadership

21%

22%

14%

15%

25%

18%

17%

23%

Addressing climate change

11%

11%

9%

9%

9%

10%

15%

16%

Controlling interest rates

13%

11%

9%

11%

9%

11%

13%

15%

Australian jobs and protection of local industries

39%

34%

40%

32%

41%

36%

32%

33%

Ensuring a quality water supply

3%

5%

4%

5%

3%

4%

5%

12%

Housing affordability

17%

14%

11%

14%

13%

13%

16%

14%

Ensuring a fair taxation system

20%

19%

21%

17%

18%

16%

17%

14%

Security and the war on terrorism

8%

8%

6%

5%

5%

4%

8%

9%

Treatment of asylum seekers

14%

11%

6%

6%

10%

8%

5%

na

Managing population growth

9%

11%

9%

7%

8%

8%

12%

na

45% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 42% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 39% Australian jobs and protection of local industries and 25% ensuring a quality education for all children.

There has been little change since this question was asked last month – Australian jobs and protection of local industries is up 5 points to 39% and treatment of asylum seekers is up 3 points (and up 8 points since February) to 14%.

Party trust to handle issues

Jul 23, 2013

Q.  Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

 

Labor

Liberal

Greens

Don’t know

 

Difference 23 Jul 13

Difference 17 Jun 13

Management of the economy

29%

44%

3%

25%

-15

-18

Ensuring a quality education for all children

40%

31%

4%

25%

+9

+1

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

34%

33%

7%

27%

+1

-5

Protecting the environment

19%

21%

39%

21%

+18

+10

A fair industrial relations system

41%

30%

4%

24%

+11

+3

Political leadership

28%

35%

5%

31%

-7

-19

Addressing climate change

20%

23%

30%

27%

+7

Controlling interest rates

26%

40%

2%

32%

-14

-17

Australian jobs and protection of local industries

34%

35%

4%

26%

-1

-7

Ensuring a quality water supply

19%

26%

22%

32%

-7

-14

Housing affordability

26%

28%

6%

39%

-2

-12

Ensuring a fair taxation system

31%

33%

5%

31%

-2

-11

Security and the war on terrorism

23%

38%

4%

36%

-15

-18

Treatment of asylum seekers

22%

33%

13%

31%

-11

-22

Managing population growth

20%

33%

8%

39%

-13

-19

Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Liberal % from Labor % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Greens minus Liberal.

On most issues, the Labor Party has gained ground on the Liberals since last month just before Kevin Rudd took over the leadership. However, the Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, security and the war on terrorism, treatment of asylum seekers and managing population growth.

Labor has now established a significant lead on a fair industrial relations system and ensuring quality education. The largest shifts to Labor were for quality education (+8), industrial relations (+8), political leadership (+12), housing affordability (+10) and treatment of asylum seekers (+11).

Carbon pricing

Jul 23, 2013

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

 

7
Mar 11

14 June

19 Sep

21 Nov

25 Jun 12

2
Oct

29 Jan 13

27 May

 

Total 23 Jul

 

Vote
ALP

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

35%

38%

37%

38%

35%

38%

37%

43%

37%

55%

17%

75%

Total oppose

48%

49%

52%

53%

54%

48%

50%

43%

48%

30%

73%

9%

Strongly support

9%

13%

14%

14%

14%

12%

11%

15%

13%

21%

3%

35%

Support

26%

25%

23%

24%

21%

26%

26%

28%

24%

34%

14%

40%

Oppose

19%

19%

17%

17%

19%

22%

22%

20%

22%

20%

26%

8%

Strongly oppose

29%

30%

35%

36%

35%

26%

28%

23%

26%

10%

47%

1%

Don’t know

18%

13%

12%

10%

11%

14%

12%

13%

15%

15%

10%

16%

Support for carbon pricing has declined significantly since the last time the question was polled in May. Support is down six points to 37% and opposition up five points to 48%.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Labor voters (55%) and Greens voters (75%) were the most likely to support carbon pricing, whereas 73% of Coalition voters oppose it.

Emissions Trading Scheme

Jul 23, 2013

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent decision to change from the current carbon pricing scheme to an emissions trading scheme which will reduce the price paid by companies from $24 per tonne of carbon pollution to a floating price currently about $6-$10?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

45%

59%

42%

17%

Total oppose

29%

17%

37%

58%

Strongly support

11%

22%

5%

5%

Support

34%

37%

37%

12%

Oppose

16%

10%

18%

38%

Strongly oppose

13%

7%

19%

20%

Don’t know

26%

24%

21%

25%

45% support the recent decision to change from the current carbon pricing scheme to an emissions trading scheme and 29% oppose.

Both Labor (59% support) and Liberal/National (42%) voters were more likely to support the decision while 58% of Greens voters were opposed.

Referendum

Jul 23, 2013

Q. If a referendum was held to recognise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution and to insert a new section to prohibit racial discrimination, would you vote in favour or against this proposal?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote in favour

62%

69%

56%

80%

Vote against

16%

14%

21%

3%

Don’t know

23%

17%

23%

17%

62% said they would vote in favour if a referendum was held to recognise Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people in the constitution and 16% said they would vote against – 23% don’t know how they would vote.

Strongest support came from women (67%), Labor voters (69%) and Greens voters (80%).