Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 24, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,916 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

27/5/13

2 weeks ago

11/6/13

Last week

17/6/13

This week

24/6/13

Liberal

 

45%

44%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

47%

47%

47%

Labor

38.0%

34%

36%

35%

34%

Greens

11.8%

8%

8%

8%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

10%

9%

9%

11%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

27/5/13

2 weeks ago

11/6/13

Last week

17/6/13

This week

24/6/13

Liberal National

49.9%

55%

54%

54%

55%

Labor

50.1%

45%

46%

46%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Senate vote

Jun 24, 2013

Q. Would you vote for the same party in the Senate as in the House of Representatives or would you vote for a different party in the Senate?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote for same party in House of Representatives and Senate

67%

74%

78%

61%

Vote for a different party in the Senate

9%

9%

7%

11%

Don’t know

24%

18%

14%

28%

9% of respondents said they would vote for a different party in the Senate and 67% said they would vote for the same party as in the House of Representatives. 24% did not know.

Those most likely to vote for a different party in the Senate were men (12%), South Australian voters (17%) and those voting for independents or other minor parties (21%).

Leader attributes – Julia Gillard

Jun 24, 2013

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard?

 

5 Jul 10

27 Jun 11

2 Apr 12

14 Jan 13

2 Apr 13

 

23 Jun 13

Change

Hard-working

89%

75%

65%

72%

66%

71%

+5

Intelligent

87%

73%

61%

72%

69%

69%

Out of touch with ordinary people

35%

60%

65%

53%

64%

57%

-7

Superficial

52%

54%

46%

55%

49%

-6

Arrogant

37%

48%

53%

47%

55%

48%

-7

Erratic

40%

55%

47%

-8

Narrow-minded

28%

46%

53%

45%

55%

46%

-9

Aggressive

46%

55%

45%

-10

A capable leader

72%

42%

38%

50%

37%

44%

+7

Understands the problems facing Australia

68%

44%

41%

47%

37%

42%

+5

Good in a crisis

61%

41%

36%

50%

44%

41%

-3

Intolerant

37%

49%

39%

-10

Visionary

48%

26%

25%

29%

30%

32%

+2

More honest than most politicians

45%

29%

26%

30%

27%

30%

+3

Trustworthy

49%

30%

25%

32%

25%

30%

+5

Julia Gillard’s key attributes were hard-working (71%), intelligent (69%), out of touch with ordinary people (57%), superficial (49%), arrogant (48%), and erratic (47%). Almost all positive leader attributes for Gillard moved up and the negative attributes moved down from the last time the question was polled in April.   The biggest shifts were for aggressive (-10), intolerant (-10), narrow-minded (-9), erratic (-8),  a capable leader (+7), arrogant (-7) and out of touch with ordinary people (-7).

Leader attributes – Tony Abbott

Jun 24, 2013

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?

 

5 Jul 10

27 Jun 11

2 Apr 12

14 jan 13

2 Apr 13

 

23 Jun 13

Change

Hard-working

76%

75%

68%

70%

70%

68%

-2

Intelligent

70%

61%

56%

64%

63%

62%

-1

Arrogant

59%

60%

61%

61%

56%

59%

+3

Narrow-minded

56%

54%

54%

56%

53%

55%

+2

Out of touch with ordinary people

57%

57%

54%

54%

52%

52%

Aggressive

55%

49%

51%

+2

Superficial

49%

49%

48%

49%

49%

Intolerant

49%

48%

48%

Erratic

51%

45%

47%

+2

Understands the problems facing Australia

50%

48%

49%

47%

49%

44%

-5

A capable leader

47%

45%

41%

43%

47%

44%

-3

Good in a crisis

40%

40%

36%

39%

44%

38%

-6

Visionary

32%

27%

26%

28%

37%

30%

-7

More honest than most politicians

33%

32%

30%

29%

36%

29%

-7

Trustworthy

33%

32%

32%

33%

36%

31%

-5

Tony Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (68%), intelligent (62%), arrogant (59%), narrow-minded (55%), out of touch with ordinary people (52%) and aggressive (51%.

Since April the major shifts have been for visionary (-7%), more honest than most politicians (-7%), good in a crisis (-6%), understands their problems facing Australia (-5) and trustworthy (-5).

Leader attributes – comparisons

Jun 24, 2013
 

Gillard

Abbott

 

Difference

Intelligent

69%

62%

+7

Out of touch with ordinary people

57%

52%

+5

Good in a crisis

41%

38%

+3

Hard-working

71%

68%

+3

Visionary

32%

30%

+2

More honest than most politicians

30%

29%

+1

Superficial

49%

49%

Erratic

47%

47%

A capable leader

44%

44%

Trustworthy

30%

31%

-1

Understands the problems facing Australia

42%

44%

-2

Aggressive

45%

51%

-6

Narrow-minded

46%

55%

-9

Intolerant

39%

48%

-9

Arrogant

48%

59%

-9

Compared to Tony Abbott, Julia Gillard is more likely to be considered intelligent (+7) and out of touch with ordinary people (+5).

Tony Abbott is regarded by more respondents to be arrogant (-9), intolerant (-9), narrow-minded (-9) and aggressive (-6).

Government decisions

Jun 24, 2013

Q. Thinking about the decisions the Labor Government has made over the last few years, do you think the following decisions were good or bad for Australia?

 

Total good

Total bad

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

Don’t know

Sep 12 good

Sep 12 bad

Expanding dental health services for people on low incomes

73%

8%

28%

45%

15%

4%

4%

5%

77%

5%

Increasing the tax free threshold from $6,000 to $18,200

72%

8%

34%

38%

15%

5%

3%

5%

75%

4%

Increasing the age pension

67%

14%

27%

40%

16%

10%

4%

4%

70%

11%

Protecting large areas of Australia’s marine environment in a network of marine reserves

66%

10%

27%

39%

19%

6%

4%

5%

67%

8%

Introducing the National Disability Insurance Scheme

63%

9%

26%

37%

20%

5%

4%

8%

58%

5%

Increasing superannuation from 9% to 12%

62%

14%

24%

38%

19%

10%

4%

5%

68%

9%

Stimulus spending to tackle the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)

50%

26%

21%

29%

19%

17%

9%

5%

54%

22%

Introducing a tax on large profits of mining companies

49%

27%

21%

28%

20%

15%

12%

5%

49%

25%

Building the NBN (National Broadband Network)

48%

28%

22%

26%

18%

15%

13%

6%

43%

28%

Paid parental leave

48%

22%

14%

34%

24%

13%

9%

5%

52%

20%

Spending on new school buildings during the GFC

47%

26%

12%

35%

20%

15%

11%

6%

53%

22%

Implementing the recommendations of the Gonski report to increase education funding

46%

22%

17%

29%

23%

12%

10%

9%

54%

8%

Abolished WorkChoices

42%

27%

23%

19%

22%

17%

10%

10%

42%

27%

Introducing a carbon tax to tackle climate change

32%

48%

14%

18%

16%

18%

30%

4%

28%

51%

The two most popular decisions of the Labor Government are ‘expanding dental health services for people on low incomes’ (73% total good) and ‘increasing the tax free threshold from $6,000 to $18,000 (72% total good).  The least popular decisions were ‘Implementing the recommendations of the Gonski report (46% total good), ‘Abolished WorkChoices’ (42% total good) and ‘introducing a carbon tax to tackle climate change’ (32% total good).

The only issue which received a net negative response was ‘introducing a carbon tax to tackle climate change’, where 48% of respondents believed it to be bad for Australia.

Since this question was previously asked last September, perceptions of most decisions have become a little more negative – with the exceptions of the “carbon tax” which shifted from 28% to 32% ‘good’, the ‘NDIS’ which shifted from 58% to 63% ‘good’ and building the NBN which shifted from 43% to 48% ‘good’.

The largest negative shifts were for the ‘Gonski recommendations’ (down 8% to 46%), increasing super (down 6% to 62%) and spending on schools during the GFC (down 6% to 47%).

Gonski reforms

Jun 24, 2013

Q. The NSW and South Australian Governments have reached agreement with the Federal Government to implement the Gonski education reforms which provide more funds for schools. Tony Abbott says if he is elected he will reverse these agreements and return to the previous system for funding schools. Would you approve or disapprove of Tony Abbott reversing the Gonski reforms?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

32%

17%

51%

12%

Total disapprove

44%

71%

21%

66%

Strongly approve

12%

5%

21%

6%

Approve

20%

12%

30%

6%

Disapprove

20%

24%

14%

26%

Strongly disapprove

24%

47%

7%

40%

Don’t know

24%

12%

27%

22%

32% approved of Tony Abbott reversing the Gonski reforms if elected and 44% disapproved.

37% of men approved compared to 27% of women. 50% of respondents aged 55+ disapproved.

Sexism and discrimination against women

Jun 24, 2013

Q. How much sexism and discrimination against women do you think currently occurs in the following?

 

A lot

Some

A little

None at all

Don’t know

 

A lot/ some TOTAL

A lot/ some MEN

A lot/ some WOMEN

 

A lot/ some Oct 12

In workplaces

21%

39%

28%

7%

5%

60%

47%

72%

55%

In the media

23%

36%

25%

10%

5%

59%

48%

71%

56%

In politics

28%

33%

23%

11%

5%

61%

49%

73%

61%

In advertising

29%

31%

24%

10%

6%

60%

51%

69%

59%

In sport

23%

34%

25%

12%

6%

57%

46%

69%

58%

In schools

11%

29%

32%

18%

10%

40%

34%

46%

43%

A majority of respondents think there is a lot or some sexism in politics (61%), advertising (60%), workplaces (60%), the media (59%) and sport (57%).

Women were more likely than men to think there is a lot or some sexism in all areas – but especially in politics (women 73%, men 49%), workplaces (72%/47%) and the media (71%/48%).

Since this question was previously asked last October, those thinking there is a lot/some sexism in workplaces has increased 5 points to 60%.

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