TRENDS: Loss of trust spreading beyond Parliament

Jun 25, 2012



Peter Lewis spells out how Aussies have little trust in anyone or anything — except maybe the ABC.

Trust is hot property in politics. Everyone wants to claim it while undermining their opponent’s. Broken promises are played hard in the hope of achieving political bingo: irreparable reputational damage.

Labor’s flat-lining polls are widely attributed to Julia Gillard’s ‘trust issues’. Mind you, Tony Abbott isn’t considered to be excelling in the trustworthy stakes either. They barely muster a pass mark between them.

But something even more insidious is beginning to occur, as this week’s Essential Report suggests. Loss of trust is contagious. We’re not just cynical about politicians; we are also losing faith in the institutions that underpin public life.

Read the full article on The Drum.

Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 25, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,853 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

28/5/12

2 weeks ago

12/6/12

Last week

18/6/12

This week

25/6/12

Liberal

47%

46%

46%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

50%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

32%

33%

33%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

9%

8%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

56%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

43%

44%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Carbon Tax

Jun 25, 2012

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which, from July 2012, will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

 

7 Mar 2011

18 Apr

23 May

14 Jun

18 Jul

1 Aug

19 Sep

17 Oct

21 Nov

Total

25 Jun 12

Vote ALP

Vote Lib

Vote Greens

Total support

35%

39%

41%

38%

39%

39%

37%

39%

38%

35%

67%

13%

74%

Total oppose

48%

49%

44%

49%

49%

51%

52%

53%

53%

54%

21%

81%

21%

Strongly support

9%

13%

14%

13%

15%

15%

14%

14%

14%

14%

28%

4%

38%

Support

26%

26%

27%

25%

24%

24%

23%

25%

24%

21%

39%

9%

36%

Oppose

19%

15%

15%

19%

16%

19%

17%

17%

17%

19%

12%

24%

13%

Strongly oppose

29%

34%

29%

30%

33%

32%

35%

36%

36%

35%

9%

57%

8%

Don’t know

18%

12%

15%

13%

12%

10%

12%

9%

10%

11%

12%

7%

6%

Support for the carbon pricing scheme has fallen a little since this question was asked in November last year. 35% (down 3%) support the scheme and 54% oppose (up 1%).

All demographic groups were more likely to oppose than support – although younger respondents showed higher support than older respondents. Support/oppose by age was 39%/45% for aged 18-34, 32%/56% for aged 35-54 and 33%/61% for aged 55+.

Impact of Carbon Tax on Cost of Living

Jun 25, 2012

Q. From what you have read and heard, what impact do you expect the carbon tax will have on your cost of living?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Costs will increase a lot

45%

24%

62%

14%

Costs will increase a moderate amount

26%

27%

27%

30%

Costs will increase a little

20%

38%

8%

37%

It will have no impact on costs

2%

4%

*

9%

Don’t know

6%

6%

3%

10%

45% believe that their cost of living will increase a lot because of the carbon tax and 26% think it will increase a moderate amount.

55% of those aged 55+, 49% of aged 35-54 and 50% of people not working think their cost of living will increase a lot. There were no substantial differences by income.

Impact of Carbon Tax

Jun 25, 2012

Q. And what impact do you expect the carbon tax to have on each of the following?

 

Increase a lot

Increase a little

Stay much the same

Decrease a little

Decrease a lot

Don’t know

Energy prices

67%

26%

4%

*

3%

Fuel prices

53%

31%

11%

1%

*

4%

Grocery prices

41%

41%

14%

1%

4%

Fresh fruit and vegetable prices

39%

39%

18%

*

*

4%

Unemployment

31%

27%

32%

2%

1%

8%

Interest rates

22%

18%

38%

8%

1%

13%

A majority expect that energy prices (67%) and fuel prices (53%) will increase a lot due to the carbon tax. 41% expect grocery prices to increase a lot and 39% expect fresh fruit and vegetable prices to increase a lot.

A majority of all demographic groups expect energy prices to increase a lot – even 48% of Labor voters agree.

Those most likely to think fuel prices will increase a lot were women (57%), aged 45-54 (60%) and Liberal/National voters (68%).

Those most likely to think grocery prices will increase a lot were aged 45+ (50%), Liberal/National voters (55%) and those on incomes under $600pw (47%). Opinions about fresh fruit and vegetable prices were similar.

58% also think that unemployment will increase and 40% think interest rates will increase because of the carbon tax.

Likelihood of Repealing the Carbon Tax

Jun 25, 2012

Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total likely

44%

28%

64%

42%

Total unlikely

40%

62%

22%

41%

Very likely

17%

15%

24%

14%

Quite likely

27%

13%

40%

28%

Not very likely

24%

29%

18%

24%

Not at all likely

16%

33%

4%

17%

Don’t know

17%

11%

14%

17%

44% think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax if they won the next election and 40% think it is unlikely.

Views were broadly similar across demographic groups – although those aged 45-64 split 44% likely/44% unlikely.

Trust in Media

Jun 25, 2012

Q. How much trust do you have in what you read or hear in the following media?

 

Total a lot/some

15 Mar 10

Total a lot /some

25 Jul 11

Total a lot /some

12 Dec 11

 

Total a lot/some

A lot of trust

Some trust

Not much trust

No trust at all

Don’t know

Don’t use

News and opinion in daily newspapers

62%

53%

46%

52%

6%

46%

30%

11%

2%

6%

News and opinion in local newspapers

54%

52%

56%

7%

49%

27%

10%

2%

5%

Commercial TV news and current affairs

64%

48%

43%

46%

6%

40%

33%

16%

2%

3%

ABC TV news and current affairs

70%

71%

72%

74%

25%

49%

15%

5%

2%

5%

Commercial radio news and current affairs

54%

46%

45%

45%

5%

40%

32%

14%

3%

7%

ABC radio news and current affairs

62%

67%

67%

69%

23%

46%

14%

6%

3%

8%

Commercial radio talkback programs

38%

33%

33%

33%

5%

28%

32%

21%

3%

11%

ABC radio talkback programs

45%

47%

47%

50%

10%

40%

25%

9%

4%

12%

News and opinion websites

49%

41%

38%

40%

5%

37%

33%

14%

3%

8%

Internet blogs

20%

20%

17%

20%

3%

17%

36%

26%

4%

14%

Overall, trust in media has changed little since this question was asked last year. Trust has stayed much the same or increased slightly for all media measured.

The most trusted media were ABC TV news and current affairs (74% a lot/some trust) and ABC radio news and current affairs (69%).

The least trusted were internet blogs (20%) and commercial radio talkback programs (33%).

Trust in Newspapers

Jun 25, 2012

Q. How much trust do you have in what you read in the following newspapers?

Total a lot/some

25 Jul 11

Total a lot/some

A lot of trust

Some trust

Not much trust

No trust at all

Don’t know

The Australian

69%

60%

15%

45%

23%

12%

6%

The Telegraph (NSW only)

52%

49%

10%

39%

30%

19%

3%

Sydney Morning Herald (NSW only)

74%

69%

19%

50%

22%

6%

4%

The Age (Victoria only)

79%

76%

20%

56%

18%

5%

1%

Herald Sun (Victoria only)

54%

51%

8%

43%

32%

15%

1%

Courier Mail (Queensland only)

65%

51%

6%

45%

28%

13%

7%

* Note : Percentages based only on respondents who had read each newspaper.

Among those who have read the newspaper, 20% have a lot of trust in The Age and 19% have a lot of trust in the SMH. 15% of readers of The Australian have a lot of trust in the newspaper but only 10% have a lot of trust in The Telegraph and 8% in The Herald Sun.  49% have not much or no trust in The Telegraph and 47% have not much or no trust in The Herald Sun.

Overall, the most trusted newspapers were The Age (76% a lot/some trust) and the SMH (69%). The least trusted were The Telegraph (49% a lot/some trust), the HeraldSun (51%) and the Courier Mail (51%).

Since this question was asked last year, there have been significant declines in trust in the Courier Mail (down 14%) and The Australian (down 9%).

Liberal/National voters (70%) were more likely than Labor voters (48%) to have a lot or some trust in The Australian.

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