The Essential Report Archive Read the latest report

  • Jun, 2012

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    TRENDS: Loss of trust spreading beyond Parliament



    Peter Lewis spells out how Aussies have little trust in anyone or anything — except maybe the ABC.

    Trust is hot property in politics. Everyone wants to claim it while undermining their opponent’s. Broken promises are played hard in the hope of achieving political bingo: irreparable reputational damage.

    Labor’s flat-lining polls are widely attributed to Julia Gillard’s ‘trust issues’. Mind you, Tony Abbott isn’t considered to be excelling in the trustworthy stakes either. They barely muster a pass mark between them.

    But something even more insidious is beginning to occur, as this week’s Essential Report suggests. Loss of trust is contagious. We’re not just cynical about politicians; we are also losing faith in the institutions that underpin public life.

    Read the full article on The Drum.

  • Jun, 2012

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,853 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    28/5/12

    2 weeks ago

    12/6/12

    Last week

    18/6/12

    This week

    25/6/12

    Liberal

    47%

    46%

    46%

    46%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    50%

    49%

    49%

    49%

    Labor

    38.0%

    33%

    32%

    33%

    33%

    Greens

    11.8%

    10%

    10%

    10%

    10%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    7%

    9%

    8%

    8%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    57%

    56%

    56%

    56%

    Labor

    50.1%

    43%

    44%

    44%

    44%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

  • Jun, 2012

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    Carbon Tax

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which, from July 2012, will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

     

    7 Mar 2011

    18 Apr

    23 May

    14 Jun

    18 Jul

    1 Aug

    19 Sep

    17 Oct

    21 Nov

    Total

    25 Jun 12

    Vote ALP

    Vote Lib

    Vote Greens

    Total support

    35%

    39%

    41%

    38%

    39%

    39%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    35%

    67%

    13%

    74%

    Total oppose

    48%

    49%

    44%

    49%

    49%

    51%

    52%

    53%

    53%

    54%

    21%

    81%

    21%

    Strongly support

    9%

    13%

    14%

    13%

    15%

    15%

    14%

    14%

    14%

    14%

    28%

    4%

    38%

    Support

    26%

    26%

    27%

    25%

    24%

    24%

    23%

    25%

    24%

    21%

    39%

    9%

    36%

    Oppose

    19%

    15%

    15%

    19%

    16%

    19%

    17%

    17%

    17%

    19%

    12%

    24%

    13%

    Strongly oppose

    29%

    34%

    29%

    30%

    33%

    32%

    35%

    36%

    36%

    35%

    9%

    57%

    8%

    Don’t know

    18%

    12%

    15%

    13%

    12%

    10%

    12%

    9%

    10%

    11%

    12%

    7%

    6%

    Support for the carbon pricing scheme has fallen a little since this question was asked in November last year. 35% (down 3%) support the scheme and 54% oppose (up 1%).

    All demographic groups were more likely to oppose than support – although younger respondents showed higher support than older respondents. Support/oppose by age was 39%/45% for aged 18-34, 32%/56% for aged 35-54 and 33%/61% for aged 55+.

  • Jun, 2012

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    Impact of Carbon Tax on Cost of Living

    Q. From what you have read and heard, what impact do you expect the carbon tax will have on your cost of living?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Costs will increase a lot

    45%

    24%

    62%

    14%

    Costs will increase a moderate amount

    26%

    27%

    27%

    30%

    Costs will increase a little

    20%

    38%

    8%

    37%

    It will have no impact on costs

    2%

    4%

    *

    9%

    Don’t know

    6%

    6%

    3%

    10%

    45% believe that their cost of living will increase a lot because of the carbon tax and 26% think it will increase a moderate amount.

    55% of those aged 55+, 49% of aged 35-54 and 50% of people not working think their cost of living will increase a lot. There were no substantial differences by income.

  • Jun, 2012

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    Impact of Carbon Tax

    Q. And what impact do you expect the carbon tax to have on each of the following?

     

    Increase a lot

    Increase a little

    Stay much the same

    Decrease a little

    Decrease a lot

    Don’t know

    Energy prices

    67%

    26%

    4%

    *

    3%

    Fuel prices

    53%

    31%

    11%

    1%

    *

    4%

    Grocery prices

    41%

    41%

    14%

    1%

    4%

    Fresh fruit and vegetable prices

    39%

    39%

    18%

    *

    *

    4%

    Unemployment

    31%

    27%

    32%

    2%

    1%

    8%

    Interest rates

    22%

    18%

    38%

    8%

    1%

    13%

    A majority expect that energy prices (67%) and fuel prices (53%) will increase a lot due to the carbon tax. 41% expect grocery prices to increase a lot and 39% expect fresh fruit and vegetable prices to increase a lot.

    A majority of all demographic groups expect energy prices to increase a lot – even 48% of Labor voters agree.

    Those most likely to think fuel prices will increase a lot were women (57%), aged 45-54 (60%) and Liberal/National voters (68%).

    Those most likely to think grocery prices will increase a lot were aged 45+ (50%), Liberal/National voters (55%) and those on incomes under $600pw (47%). Opinions about fresh fruit and vegetable prices were similar.

    58% also think that unemployment will increase and 40% think interest rates will increase because of the carbon tax.

  • Jun, 2012

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    Likelihood of Repealing the Carbon Tax

    Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total likely

    44%

    28%

    64%

    42%

    Total unlikely

    40%

    62%

    22%

    41%

    Very likely

    17%

    15%

    24%

    14%

    Quite likely

    27%

    13%

    40%

    28%

    Not very likely

    24%

    29%

    18%

    24%

    Not at all likely

    16%

    33%

    4%

    17%

    Don’t know

    17%

    11%

    14%

    17%

    44% think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would repeal the carbon tax if they won the next election and 40% think it is unlikely.

    Views were broadly similar across demographic groups – although those aged 45-64 split 44% likely/44% unlikely.

  • Jun, 2012

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    Trust in Media

    Q. How much trust do you have in what you read or hear in the following media?

     

    Total a lot/some

    15 Mar 10

    Total a lot /some

    25 Jul 11

    Total a lot /some

    12 Dec 11

     

    Total a lot/some

    A lot of trust

    Some trust

    Not much trust

    No trust at all

    Don’t know

    Don’t use

    News and opinion in daily newspapers

    62%

    53%

    46%

    52%

    6%

    46%

    30%

    11%

    2%

    6%

    News and opinion in local newspapers

    54%

    52%

    56%

    7%

    49%

    27%

    10%

    2%

    5%

    Commercial TV news and current affairs

    64%

    48%

    43%

    46%

    6%

    40%

    33%

    16%

    2%

    3%

    ABC TV news and current affairs

    70%

    71%

    72%

    74%

    25%

    49%

    15%

    5%

    2%

    5%

    Commercial radio news and current affairs

    54%

    46%

    45%

    45%

    5%

    40%

    32%

    14%

    3%

    7%

    ABC radio news and current affairs

    62%

    67%

    67%

    69%

    23%

    46%

    14%

    6%

    3%

    8%

    Commercial radio talkback programs

    38%

    33%

    33%

    33%

    5%

    28%

    32%

    21%

    3%

    11%

    ABC radio talkback programs

    45%

    47%

    47%

    50%

    10%

    40%

    25%

    9%

    4%

    12%

    News and opinion websites

    49%

    41%

    38%

    40%

    5%

    37%

    33%

    14%

    3%

    8%

    Internet blogs

    20%

    20%

    17%

    20%

    3%

    17%

    36%

    26%

    4%

    14%

    Overall, trust in media has changed little since this question was asked last year. Trust has stayed much the same or increased slightly for all media measured.

    The most trusted media were ABC TV news and current affairs (74% a lot/some trust) and ABC radio news and current affairs (69%).

    The least trusted were internet blogs (20%) and commercial radio talkback programs (33%).

  • Jun, 2012

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    Trust in Newspapers

    Q. How much trust do you have in what you read in the following newspapers?

    Total a lot/some

    25 Jul 11

    Total a lot/some

    A lot of trust

    Some trust

    Not much trust

    No trust at all

    Don’t know

    The Australian

    69%

    60%

    15%

    45%

    23%

    12%

    6%

    The Telegraph (NSW only)

    52%

    49%

    10%

    39%

    30%

    19%

    3%

    Sydney Morning Herald (NSW only)

    74%

    69%

    19%

    50%

    22%

    6%

    4%

    The Age (Victoria only)

    79%

    76%

    20%

    56%

    18%

    5%

    1%

    Herald Sun (Victoria only)

    54%

    51%

    8%

    43%

    32%

    15%

    1%

    Courier Mail (Queensland only)

    65%

    51%

    6%

    45%

    28%

    13%

    7%

    * Note : Percentages based only on respondents who had read each newspaper.

    Among those who have read the newspaper, 20% have a lot of trust in The Age and 19% have a lot of trust in the SMH. 15% of readers of The Australian have a lot of trust in the newspaper but only 10% have a lot of trust in The Telegraph and 8% in The Herald Sun.  49% have not much or no trust in The Telegraph and 47% have not much or no trust in The Herald Sun.

    Overall, the most trusted newspapers were The Age (76% a lot/some trust) and the SMH (69%). The least trusted were The Telegraph (49% a lot/some trust), the HeraldSun (51%) and the Courier Mail (51%).

    Since this question was asked last year, there have been significant declines in trust in the Courier Mail (down 14%) and The Australian (down 9%).

    Liberal/National voters (70%) were more likely than Labor voters (48%) to have a lot or some trust in The Australian.

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