Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 25, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,797 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

25/2/13

2 weeks ago

11/2/13

Last week

18/3/13

This week

25/3/13

Liberal

46%

45%

45%

45%

National

3%

3%

2%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

48%

47%

47%

Labor

38.0%

34%

34%

35%

33%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

8%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

55%

54%

54%

Labor

50.1%

44%

45%

46%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Firmness of vote

Mar 25, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held in September this year?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

I will definitely not change my mind

43%

40%

57%

18%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

31%

34%

29%

31%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

19%

16%

11%

41%

Don’t know

7%

9%

4%

10%

74% of Labor voters will definitely not or are very unlikely to change their vote compared to 86% of Liberal/National voters but only 49% of Greens voters.

25% of aged 18-34, 20% of aged 35-54 and 11% of aged 55+ say they may change their mind.

Main reason for voting Labor

Mar 25, 2013

Q. Which of the following is the main reason you would vote for the Labor Party if there was an election today?

I always vote for the Labor Party

28%

The Labor Party has been a good Government

11%

The Liberal Party would not be a good Government

4%

I don’t want Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister

35%

The Labor Party have better policies than the Liberal Party

10%

I would be personally better off under a Labor Government

8%

Other reason

2%

Don’t know

2%

More than one third said the main reason they would be voting Labor was they don’t want Tony Abbott as Prime Minister.

28% said they always vote Labor and 11% said the Labor Party had been a good Government.

Main reason for voting Liberal/National

Mar 25, 2013

Q. Which of the following is the main reason you would vote for the Liberal or National Party if there was an election today?

I always vote for the Liberal or National Party

21%

The Labor Party has been a poor Government

34%

The Liberal and National Parties would be a good Government

12%

I don’t want Julia Gillard as Prime Minister

17%

The Liberal/National Parties have better policies than the Labor Party

9%

I would be personally better off under a Liberal/National Government

6%

Other reason

1%

Don’t know

*

One third say they would vote Liberal/National because the Labor Party has been a poor Government. 21% say they always vote Liberal/National and 17% don’t want Julia Gillard as Prime Minister.

40% of men and 27% of women say the Labor Party has been a poor Government.

Media regulation

Mar 25, 2013

Q. Thinking about the media in Australia, do you think there needs to be more or less regulation of the media or is the present level of regulation about right?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Needs to be more regulation

29%

38%

22%

40%

Needs to be less regulation

10%

9%

11%

9%

Present regulation about right

43%

36%

55%

35%

Don’t know

17%

18%

12%

16%

29% think the media in Australia needs more regulation, 10% think it needs less regulation and 43% think the present regulation is about right.

38% of Labor voters and 40% of Greens voters think it needs more regulation.

Read or heard about media regulation proposal

Mar 25, 2013

Q. The Federal Government has proposed new legislation to regulate the media – including  appointing an advocate to oversee the current self-regulatory bodies such as the Press Council and with the power to prevent media mergers not considered to be in the public interest. How much have you read or heard about the Government’s plans to introduce new regulation of the media?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

A lot

12%

12%

14%

8%

Some

22%

22%

26%

22%

A little

31%

29%

31%

42%

Nothing

29%

30%

24%

28%

Don’t know

6%

7%

5%

1%

60% said they had heard little or nothing about the Federal Government’s proposed legislation to regulate the media. Only 12% said they had read or heard a lot and 22% said they had read/heard some.

Those most likely to have read/heard a lot/some were men (45%), Liberal/National voters (40%) and aged 55+ (50%).

Media reporting of proposed media regulation

Mar 25, 2013

Q. Do you think the media reporting and commentary on this issue has been good or poor?

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

31%

23%

39%

24%

Total poor

25%

34%

19%

33%

Very good

8%

9%

10%

1%

Good

23%

14%

29%

23%

Neither good nor poor

39%

42%

37%

38%

Poor

17%

19%

17%

18%

Very poor

8%

15%

2%

15%

Don’t know

4%

2%

4%

5%

31% of those who had read/heard about the proposed legislation think the media reporting and commentary has been good and 25% think it has been poor.

Those most likely to think it has been poor were Labor voters (34%) and Greens voters (33%).

Support for proposed media regulation

Mar 25, 2013

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s plans to reform regulation of the media?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

29%

49%

18%

29%

Total oppose

34%

18%

50%

30%

Strongly support

7%

13%

2%

11%

Support

22%

36%

16%

18%

Oppose

23%

16%

31%

25%

Strongly oppose

11%

2%

19%

5%

Don’t know

36%

33%

32%

40%

29% support the Government’s proposed media regulation and 34% oppose. 36% have no opinion. Labor voters tend to support the legislation (49% to 18%) and Liberal/National voters tend to oppose by a similar margin (18% to 50%). 51% of those aged 55+ oppose the legislation.