Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 26, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,795 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

29/7/13

2 weeks ago

13/8/13

Last week

19/8/13

This week

26/8/13

Liberal

 

41%

40%

41%

40%

National

3%

3%

3%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

44%

43%

44%

43%

Labor

38.0%

39%

39%

40%

38%

Greens

11.8%

9%

8%

8%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

10%

8%

9%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

29/7/13

2 weeks ago

13/8/13

Last week

19/8/13

This week

26/8/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

51%

50%

50%

Labor

50.1%

49%

49%

50%

50%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Firmness of voting intention

Aug 26, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

 

Total

5 Aug

Total

19 Aug

I will definitely not change my mind

47%

46%

60%

26%

22%

44%

46%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

30%

32%

26%

38%

33%

30%

32%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

18%

17%

11%

30%

41%

21%

17%

Don’t know

4%

5%

3%

6%

5%

5%

5%

47% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 30% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 18% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents little change since this question was asked a week ago.

Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (30%), other party and independent voters (41%) and aged 25-34 (25%).

Approval of Kevin Rudd

Aug 26, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?

 

Julia Gillard

11 Jun 13

 

Kevin Rudd

15 Jul

Kevin Rudd

13 Aug

 

Kevin Rudd

26 Aug

Total approve

37%

50%

45%

41%

Total disapprove

54%

35%

43%

45%

Strongly approve

10%

18%

11%

11%

Approve

27%

32%

34%

30%

Disapprove

21%

15%

21%

20%

Strongly disapprove

33%

20%

22%

25%

Don’t know

9%

16%

12%

14%

Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings have fallen since last measured 2 weeks ago. 41% (down 4%) approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and 45% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +2 to -4.

82% of Labor voters approve (down 6%) and 8% disapprove (up 2%).

By gender – men 43% approve/47% disapprove, women 39% approve/44% disapprove.  In net terms this represents a shift with men from +6 to -4 and with women from -1 to -5.

Approval of Tony Abbott

Aug 26, 2013

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

 

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

 

20 Dec

14 June  2011

12 Dec

12 Jun 2012

10 Dec

11 Mar 2013

11 Jun

15 Jul

13 Aug

 

26 Aug

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

32%

32%

33%

37%

40%

39%

37%

37%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

48%

53%

54%

56%

51%

49%

51%

51%

52%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

6%

6%

6%

8%

7%

10%

11%

9%

10%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

32%

26%

26%

25%

30%

30%

28%

28%

27%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

25%

25%

24%

25%

22%

17%

21%

21%

23%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

28%

30%

31%

29%

32%

30%

30%

29%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

15%

14%

13%

12%

12%

11%

11%

11%

10%

Tony Abbott’s approval ratings have changed little over the past two weeks. 37% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 52% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -14 to -15 over the last 2 weeks.

73% (down 3%) of Coalition voters approve and 18% (up 4%) disapprove.

By gender – men 45% approve/47% disapprove, women 29% approve/57% disapprove. In net terms this represents no net change with men (at -2) and a shift with women from -24 to -28.

Better Prime Minister

Aug 26, 2013

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott?

 

Gillard/ Abbott

11 Jun 13

 

Rudd/ Abbott

15 Jul 13

 

Rudd/ Abbott

13 Aug 13

Total

 

Rudd/ Abbott

26 Aug 13

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard/Kevin Rudd

39%

50%

47%

43%

89%

4%

63%

Tony Abbott

40%

35%

35%

34%

1%

77%

6%

Don’t know

21%

15%

18%

23%

10%

19%

31%

43% (down 4%) believe Kevin Rudd would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (down 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men prefer Kevin Rudd 41%/38% and women prefer Kevin Rudd 45%/30%.

Involvement in election campaign

Aug 26, 2013

Q. Over the last few weeks, which of the following types of involvement have you had in the Federal election campaign?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Met one of my local candidates

8%

10%

8%

5%

Received election leaflets in my letterbox

55%

57%

56%

66%

Been door-knocked by a political party

4%

5%

4%

3%

Been handed election materials in the street

7%

9%

7%

6%

Had a phone call from a political party

5%

5%

6%

7%

Been surveyed by phone or door-to-door (not online surveys)

4%

6%

4%

1%

Seen TV advertising or heard radio advertising from political parties

57%

60%

58%

66%

Watched interviews with politicians on TV or heard them on radio

44%

43%

46%

56%

Read articles about the election in newspapers or magazines

38%

35%

39%

53%

Been to a political meeting or event

2%

2%

2%

Seen election advertising on Youtube or Facebook

8%

11%

6%

12%

Joined a Facebook group related to the election

4%

5%

2%

5%

Done volunteer work for a candidate (e.g. letterboxing)

1%

1%

1%

1%

None of these

26%

22%

27%

17%

57% say they have seen TV or heard radio advertising from political parties, 55% have received election leaflets in their letterbox, 44% have watched or heard interviews with politicians on TV or radio and 38% have read articles about the election.

Greens voters were more likely to watch or listen to interviews with politicians (56%) and read articles (53%).

Older respondents tended to be more engaged with the election – of those aged 55+, 59% had watched or listened to interviews with politicians and 51% had read articles about the election.

Paid parental leave

Aug 26, 2013

Q. The Opposition’s parental leave policy is to give new parents up to 26 weeks leave at their current full rate of pay (up to $150,000) to be partly paid for by a 1.5 per cent levy on large companies. The Labor Government’s policy gives new parents 18 weeks leave at the minimum wage rate paid for by the Government. Which scheme do you support most?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The Government’s scheme

35%

58%

19%

38%

The Opposition’s scheme

24%

14%

36%

20%

Neither

28%

15%

35%

25%

Don’t know

13%

13%

10%

17%

35% support the Government’s paid parental leave scheme and 24% support the Coalition’s scheme more. 28% support neither scheme.

The Government’s scheme is supported by both men (37% to 25%) and women (34% to 23%).

By age group, those aged 18-34 support the Coalition’s scheme 35% to 33% while aged 35-54 support the Government’s scheme 35% to 22% and those aged 55+ support the Government’s scheme 37% to 14%.

Likelihood of more spending cuts – Liberal Government

Aug 26, 2013

Q. If the Liberal Party win Government, how likely do you think it is that they will be able to pay for their policies and election commitments without making more cuts in spending after the election?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Very likely

9%

1%

19%

5%

Somewhat likely

16%

11%

27%

6%

Somewhat unlikely

20%

19%

24%

14%

Very unlikely

41%

61%

16%

66%

Don’t know

14%

8%

14%

10%

61% think it is unlikely that a Liberal Government will be able to pay for their policies and election commitments without making more cuts in spending after the election – only 25% think it is likely.

40% of Liberal/National voters think it is unlikely.

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