Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 26, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,923 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

27/2/12

2 weeks ago

12/3/12

Last week

19/3/12

This week

26/3/12

Liberal

46%

46%

45%

45%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

48%

47%

Labor

38.0%

32%

31%

32%

34%

Greens

11.8%

11%

10%

11%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

10%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

57%

56%

54%

Labor

50.1%

44%

43%

44%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Comments »

The Economy – Heading in the Right/Wrong Direction

Mar 26, 2012

Q. Overall, from what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?

 

17 May 10

(Post 2010 budget)

9 May 11

(Post 2011 budget)

4 Jul 11

26 Mar 12

Vote Labor

Vote Liberal/ National

Vote Greens

The right direction

51%

45%

37%

36%

65%

19%

47%

The wrong direction

25%

29%

43%

41%

15%

64%

23%

Don’t know

24%

25%

20%

22%

21%

17%

30%

36% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 41% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Opinions have changed little since this question was asked in July last year – “right direction” has dropped 1% and “wrong direction” dropped 2%.

65% of Labor voters, 19% of Liberal/National voters and 47% of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction.

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Party Best at Handling Economy

Mar 26, 2012

Q. Which party do you think would be best at handling the Australian economy in the interests of you and people like you?

 

4 Jul 11

26 Mar 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The Labor Party

26%

29%

76%

1%

39%

The Liberal Party

43%

41%

2%

89%

7%

No difference

23%

20%

14%

7%

45%

Don’t know

8%

10%

7%

4%

9%

 

41% (down 2% since July last year) think the Liberal Party would be best at handling the Australian economy in their interests and 29% (up 3%) nominated the Labor Party. 20% think there is no difference.

There were significant differences by income – those earning under $600pw split 38% Labor/30% Liberal while those earning over $1,600pw favoured the Liberal Party 49% to 23% Labor.

Comments »

The Economy

Mar 26, 2012

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?  

 

 

1 Dec

08

15 Jun 09

5 Oct

09

28 Jun

10

18 Oct

10

4 April

11

4 Jul

11

3 Oct

11

26 Mar 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total better

21%

43%

66%

33%

40%

27%

22%

16%

25%

42%

17%

26%

Total worse

61%

37%

15%

31%

30%

37%

49%

58%

46%

29%

60%

37%

Get a lot better

2%

5%

8%

5%

6%

4%

3%

2%

3%

5%

2%

1%

Get a little better

19%

38%

58%

28%

34%

23%

19%

14%

22%

37%

15%

25%

Get a little worse

45%

28%

11%

23%

20%

27%

31%

41%

31%

25%

36%

34%

Get a lot worse

16%

9%

4%

8%

10%

10%

18%

17%

15%

4%

24%

3%

Stay much the same

13%

17%

15%

30%

24%

27%

25%

22%

21%

24%

19%

26%

No opinion

5%

3%

4%

7%

6%

8%

4%

4%

7%

4%

4%

12%

Confidence in the economic outlook has strengthened with the percentage of respondents believing conditions to be getting better increasing 9 points to 25%, from 16% in October last year.  Those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months has fallen 12 points from 58% to 46%.

Labor voters are optimistic overall – 42% better/29% worse.  Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 60% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 17% better.

There was little difference across income groups.

Comments »

Personal financial situation

Mar 26, 2012

Q, Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same? 

 

28 Jun

10

18 Oct

10

4 April

11

4 Jul

11

3 Oct

11

26 Mar 12

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Total better

29%

33%

32%

28%

24%

28%

34%

25%

36%

Total worse

31%

29%

31%

36%

41%

37%

29%

42%

34%

Get a lot better

5%

6%

7%

5%

4%

5%

5%

4%

14%

Get a little better

24%

27%

25%

23%

20%

23%

29%

21%

22%

Get a little worse

21%

21%

22%

23%

27%

27%

22%

30%

27%

Get a lot worse

10%

8%

9%

13%

14%

10%

7%

12%

7%

Stay much the same

37%

32%

32%

32%

32%

29%

32%

31%

25%

No opinion

4%

5%

5%

3%

3%

5%

5%

2%

5%

28% (up 4% since October last year) of respondents believe that their personal financial situation will get better in the next 12 months and 37% worse (down 4%). 29% (down 3%) expect it to stay much the same. However, these results are very similar to those of July 2011.

Greens voters (36% better) and Labor voters (34%) are the most likely to believe that their personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months, whereas Coalition voters are the most likely to believe that theirs will get worse (42%).

People on lower incomes were more pessimistic about their personal financial outlook – those earning under $600 per week split 22% better/49% worse – compared to those earning more than $1,600pw who split 36%better/30% worse.

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Job security

Mar 26, 2012

Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? 

 

8 Jun

09

5 Oct

09

28 Jun 10

18 Oct 10

4 Apr

11

4 Jul

11

3 Oct

11

26 Mar 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total concerned

52%

49%

43%

40%

43%

45%

47%

49%

43%

55%

34%

Very concerned

13%

14%

9%

11%

11%

13%

14%

13%

9%

16%

8%

Somewhat concerned

39%

35%

34%

29%

32%

32%

33%

36%

34%

39%

26%

Not at all concerned

35%

40%

38%

42%

43%

39%

37%

36%

44%

31%

51%

Don’t know

6%

6%

12%

10%

8%

8%

7%

8%

6%

7%

9%

No employees in the immediate family

8%

5%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

6%

6%

Concern over job security has risen slightly since the last time the question was polled, increasing 2 points up from 47% in October 2011 to 49% (total concerned).

In the 12 months from April 2011, total concern has increased from 43% to 49%.

Coalition voters are the most likely to be concerned that they or a member of their immediately family will lose their job in the next year or so (55% total concerned), whereas Greens voters are less likely to be concerned (34% total concerned).

There were no major differences across income or age groups – except for the under 25’s where 41% were concerned and 48% not at all concerned.

Comments »

Awareness of Kony 2012

Mar 26, 2012

Q. Over the past couple of weeks a video made by the not-for-profit organisation Invisible Children called Kony 2012 was put up on the internet. Have you heard of the Kony2012 video or campaign?

 

Total

Men

Women

Aged

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged 55+

Yes

68%

68%

68%

78%

68%

56%

No

27%

27%

27%

19%

28%

37%

Not sure

5%

4%

5%

3%

5%

7%

68% said they had heard of the Kony 2012 video or campaign.

Younger respondents were most likely to be aware of the campaign – although a majority of all demographic groups said they had heard of it.

Comments »

Involvement with Kony 2012 Campaign

Mar 26, 2012

Q. Which of the following apply to you?

 

Total

Men

Women

Aged 18-34

Aged 35-54

Aged 55+

I was sent an email link, Facebook message or tweet about this from a friend

41%

36%

45%

63%

32%

18%

I have read about Kony 2012 in the media

75%

73%

76%

73%

74%

78%

I searched online for the video

19%

18%

20%

31%

14%

8%

I watched all of the video Kony 2012

24%

20%

28%

37%

17%

15%

I watched part of the video Kony 2012

29%

28%

29%

34%

26%

25%

I visited the Kony 2012 website

13%

10%

15%

17%

11%

7%

I pledged support to the campaign on the website

7%

6%

8%

10%

6%

4%

I have donated or bought the kit

5%

6%

5%

9%

4%

3%

I sent a message to the policymakers and culturalmakers

5%

6%

3%

7%

4%

3%

Before this video I had not heard of Invisible Children or Joseph Kony

63%

57%

70%

64%

63%

62%

I have previously supported international aid organisations or campaigns

42%

38%

46%

43%

38%

49%

* Based on those who have heard of Kony 2012

Of those aware of the campaign/video, more than half said they had watched all or part of the Kony 2012 video – although the most common way of hearing about the campaign was in the media (75%).

63% said they had never heard of the Invisible Children or Joseph Kony before the video.

However, only a small proportion took any form of action as a result of the campaign – 7% pledged support on the website and 5% said they donated or bought the kit.

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