Federal politics – voting intention

May 27, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,906 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

29/4/13

2 weeks ago

13/5/13

Last week

20/5/13

This week

27/5/13

Liberal

45%

44%

45%

45%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

34%

34%

35%

34%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

8%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

10%

9%

10%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

55%

55%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

45%

45%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Trust to handle economy

May 27, 2013

Q. Who would you trust most to handle Australia’s economy – The Treasurer Wayne Swan or the Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey?

 

6 May 2013

Total 27 May

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Wayne Swan

32%

28%

64%

7%

39%

Joe Hockey

35%

37%

7%

70%

14%

Don’t know

32%

34%

29%

23%

47%

Trust in Joe Hockey to handle the economy has increased since the Federal Budget and trust in Wayne Swan has fallen. 28% (down 4%) trust Wayne Swan more to handle Australia’s economy and 37% (up 2%) trust Joe Hockey more.

Those on incomes under $1,000pw trust Joe Hockey 34%/31% while those earning over $1,000pw trust Joe Hockey 42%/29%.

Carbon tax and mining tax

May 27, 2013

Q. In his reply to the budget Tony Abbott said he would dump the carbon tax and the mining tax but still retain the Labor Government’s compensation payments to households. If he is elected at the next election what do you think he is most likely to do?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Dump the carbon tax and mining tax and keep the compensation to households

26%

9%

47%

6%

Dump the carbon tax and mining tax but will not keep the compensation to households

29%

35%

27%

35%

He won’t dump the carbon tax and mining tax

28%

40%

14%

38%

Don’t know

17%

15%

11%

20%

Only 26% think that if Tony Abbott becomes Prime Minister at the next election, he will dump the carbon tax and the mining tax but still retain the Labor Government’s compensation payments to households. 29% think he will dump the taxes but will not keep the compensation to households and 28% think he won’t dump the taxes.

Only 47% of Liberal/National voters believe he will dump the taxes and keep the compensation.

Dumping the carbon tax and mining tax

May 27, 2013

Q. And which option would you most favour?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Dump the carbon tax and mining tax and keep the compensation to households

39%

28%

53%

16%

Dump the carbon tax and mining tax and not keep the compensation to households

20%

6%

34%

12%

Keep the carbon tax and mining tax

27%

53%

6%

62%

Don’t know

14%

13%

8%

10%

39% favour dumping the carbon tax and mining tax and keeping the compensation to households, 27% favour keeping the taxes and 20% favour dumping the taxes and not keeping the compensation.

Strongest support for keeping the mining and carbon taxes came from Labor voters (53%), Greens voters (62%) and people on incomes over $1,600pw (32%).

Strongest support for dumping the taxes and keeping the compensation came from Liberal/National voters (53%) and people on incomes less than $1,000pw (48%).

Gonski education reforms

May 27, 2013

Q. Tony Abbott has said that, if elected, he will not proceed with the Gonski reforms to education which gives more funds to public schools but he will keep the current system of school funding which he says is working well. Do you think he should implement the Gonski funding reforms or keep the current system?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Implement the Gonski reforms

43%

64%

26%

65%

Keep the current system of school funding

34%

18%

56%

14%

Don’t know

22%

18%

18%

22%

43% support implementing the Gonski education funding reforms and 34% support keeping the current system of school funding.

Strongest support for implementing the Gonski reforms came from Labor voters (64%), Greens voters (65%) and people aged 25-44 (49%).

Strongest support for keeping the current system came from Liberal/National voters (56%) and people aged 65+ (55%).

Climate change

May 27, 2013

Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

 

Nov 09

Dec 10

30 May 11

14 Jun

15
Oct
12

 29 Jan 13

Total
27
May

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity

53%

45%

52%

50%

48%

51%

51%

68%

38%

83%

We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate

34%

36%

36%

39%

39%

40%

35%

23%

50%

10%

Don’t know

13%

19%

12%

12%

13%

9%

14%

9%

12%

8%

51% agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 35% believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is a five point decline in those thinking it is just a fluctuation in the earth’s climate since this question was previously asked in January.

By age groups, those aged under 35 split 60%/22% and those aged 55+ split 42%/49%. People on higher incomes were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those earning under $600pw split 42%/44% while those earning over $1,600pw split 54%/34%.

Carbon pricing

May 27, 2013

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

7
Mar 11

14 June

19
Sep

21 Nov

25
Jun
12

2
Oct

29
Jan
13

Total
27
May

Vote ALP

Vote Lib

Vote Greens

Total support

35%

38%

37%

38%

35%

38%

37%

43%

70%

22%

79%

Total oppose

48%

49%

52%

53%

54%

48%

50%

43%

18%

69%

12%

Strongly support

9%

13%

14%

14%

14%

12%

11%

15%

30%

4%

34%

Support

26%

25%

23%

24%

21%

26%

26%

28%

40%

18%

45%

Oppose

19%

19%

17%

17%

19%

22%

22%

20%

12%

28%

5%

Strongly oppose

29%

30%

35%

36%

35%

26%

28%

23%

6%

41%

7%

Don’t know

18%

13%

12%

10%

11%

14%

12%

13%

12%

9%

9%

Support for carbon pricing has increased significantly since the last time the question was polled in January. Support is up six points to 43% and opposition down seven points to 43%.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Labor voters (70%) and Greens voters (79%) were the most likely to support carbon pricing, whereas 69% of Coalition voters oppose it.

Younger respondents were more likely to support carbon pricing than older respondents – for those aged under 35, 52% support and 25% oppose while 56% of those aged 55+ oppose and 39% support.

Climate change policies

May 27, 2013

Q. If they win the election the Liberal Party plans to dump the carbon tax and replace it with what they call a “direct action” plan which involves planting trees and paying companies to reduce their carbon pollution. Which approach to climate change would you favour?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The Government’s tax on the largest polluting companies to encourage them to reduce carbon pollution

39%

67%

20%

63%

The Liberal’s policy to plant trees and pay companies to reduce carbon pollution

29%

9%

49%

15%

Neither

18%

11%

23%

14%

Don’t know

14%

13%

8%

8%

39% favour the Government’s policy on addressing climate change and 29% favour the Liberal Party’s “direct action” plan. 18% do not support either approach.

The Government’s approach had strongest support from Labor voters (67%), Greens voters (63%) and people aged under 35 (44%).

The Liberal Party’s plan had strongest support from Liberal/National voters (49%) and people aged 65+ (45%).