Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 28, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,803 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

30/7/12

2 weeks ago

13/8/12

Last week

20/8/12

This week

27/8/12

Liberal

45%

46%

46%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

32%

32%

32%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

8%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

56%

57%

56%

Labor

50.1%

45%

44%

43%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

The Economy

Aug 28, 2012

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

 

1

Dec

08

15

Jun

09

5

Oct

09

28

Jun

10

18

Oct

10

4

Apr

11

4

Jul

11

3

Oct

11

26

Mar

12

7

May

12

Total

27 Aug 12

Vote ALP

Vote Lib/

Nat

Vote Greens

Total better

21%

43%

66%

33%

40%

27%

22%

16%

25%

23%

22%

34%

18%

23%

Total worse

61%

37%

15%

31%

30%

37%

49%

58%

46%

46%

45%

31%

57%

40%

Get a lot better

2%

5%

8%

5%

6%

4%

3%

2%

3%

2%

3%

7%

2%

2%

Get a little better

19%

38%

58%

28%

34%

23%

19%

14%

22%

21%

19%

27%

16%

21%

Get a little worse

45%

28%

11%

23%

20%

27%

31%

41%

31%

31%

30%

22%

35%

32%

Get a lot worse

16%

9%

4%

8%

10%

10%

18%

17%

15%

15%

15%

9%

22%

8%

Stay much the same

13%

17%

15%

30%

24%

27%

25%

22%

21%

25%

27%

30%

23%

29%

No opinion

5%

3%

4%

7%

6%

8%

4%

4%

7%

6%

6%

5%

2%

7%

Confidence in the economic outlook has shown little change since May.  The percentage of respondents believing conditions to be getting better declined a point to 22% and those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months dropped a point to 45%. 27% think things will stay much the same (up 2 points).

Labor voters were the most optimistic overall – 34% better/31% worse.  Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 57% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 18% better.

Men (28% better/42% worse) were a little more optimistic than women (16% better/47% worse).

Personal financial situation

Aug 28, 2012

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same? 

 

28 Jun

10

18 Oct

10

4 April

11

4 Jul

11

3 Oct

11

26 Mar 12

Total

27 Aug 12

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Total better

29%

33%

32%

28%

24%

28%

29%

36%

23%

39%

Total worse

31%

29%

31%

36%

41%

37%

37%

29%

44%

29%

Get a lot better

5%

6%

7%

5%

4%

5%

6%

8%

4%

9%

Get a little better

24%

27%

25%

23%

20%

23%

23%

28%

19%

30%

Get a little worse

21%

21%

22%

23%

27%

27%

26%

19%

33%

17%

Get a lot worse

10%

8%

9%

13%

14%

10%

11%

10%

11%

12%

Stay much the same

37%

32%

32%

32%

32%

29%

30%

32%

31%

27%

No opinion

4%

5%

5%

3%

3%

5%

5%

3%

3%

5%

29% (up 1% since March) of respondents believe that their personal financial situation will get better in the next 12 months and 37% worse (no change). 30% (up 1%) expect it to stay much the same.

Greens voters (39% better) and Labor voters (36%) are the most likely to believe that their personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months, whereas Coalition voters are the most likely to believe that theirs will get worse (44%).

People on lower incomes were more pessimistic about their personal financial outlook – those earning under $600 per week split 23% better/48% worse – compared to those earning more than $1,600pw who split 38% better/29% worse.

Job security

Aug 28, 2012

Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned? 

 

8 Jun

09

5 Oct

09

28 Jun 10

18 Oct 10

4 Apr

11

4 Jul

11

3 Oct

11

26 Mar 12

Total

27 Aug 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total concerned

52%

49%

43%

40%

43%

45%

47%

49%

47%

44%

52%

43%

Very concerned

13%

14%

9%

11%

11%

13%

14%

13%

13%

10%

14%

14%

Somewhat concerned

39%

35%

34%

29%

32%

32%

33%

36%

34%

34%

38%

29%

Not at all concerned

35%

40%

38%

42%

43%

39%

37%

36%

37%

42%

35%

43%

Don’t know

6%

6%

12%

10%

8%

8%

7%

8%

8%

8%

5%

7%

No employees in the immediate family

8%

5%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

Concern over job security has fallen slightly since the last time the question was polled, declining 2 points up from 49% in March to 47% (total concerned).

Coalition voters are the most likely to be concerned that they or a member of their immediately family will lose their job in the next year or so (52% total concerned), whereas Greens (43%) and Labor voters (44%) are less likely to be concerned.

There were no major differences across income or age groups – except for the under 25’s where 43% were concerned and 48% not at all concerned.

Better or Worse off under Liberal Government

Aug 28, 2012

Q. Do you think you personally would be better off or worse off financially if Tony Abbott and the Liberals were in Government?

 

Total

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Total better off

30%

4%

64%

6%

Total worse off

32%

69%

3%

52%

A lot better off

10%

1%

22%

A little better off

20%

3%

42%

6%

Make no difference

24%

18%

27%

21%

A little worse off

10%

19%

2%

11%

A lot worse off

22%

50%

1%

41%

No opinion

14%

9%

6%

21%

30% of respondents think they would be personally better off financially if the Liberals were in Government and 32% think they would be financially worse off. 24% think it would make no difference to them financially.

Respondents aged 45-64 thought they would be more likely to be worse off (32% better/40% worse) while for those aged 65+, 47% thought they would be better off and 24% worse off.

View of Manufacturing Industry

Aug 28, 2012

Q. Thinking about the Australian manufacturing industry, which of the following statements is closest to your view?

 

Total

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

With Government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry

63%

67%

63%

68%

There is no future for manufacturing in Australia and Government support would be a waste of money

17%

15%

21%

14%

Don’t know

21%

18%

16%

18%

63% agreed that “with Government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry” and 17% agreed that “there is no future for manufacturing in Australia and Government support would be a waste of money”.

There was little difference by voting intention. Older respondents were more supportive of manufacturing than younger respondents – 68% of those aged 55+ agreed that “with Government support, Australia can have a successful manufacturing industry” compared to 55% of those aged 18-34.

Support for Manufacturing Industry

Aug 28, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the following types of Government support and assistance for Australia’s manufacturing industry?

 

Total approve

Total disapprove

Strongly approve

Approve

Disapprove

Strongly disapprove

Don’t know

Lower tax rates for Australian manufacturers, even though it would reduce tax revenue.

55%

23%

10%

45%

18%

5%

22%

More direct subsidies and grants to manufacturers from taxpayers.

35%

41%

4%

31%

30%

11%

24%

Take action to force down the Australian dollar

25%

46%

6%

19%

32%

14%

28%

Protection from overseas competition

66%

20%

25%

41%

15%

5%

13%

Joint ventures and partnerships between Government and manufacturing companies

67%

17%

13%

54%

12%

5%

17%

Giving preference to Australian companies when purchasing manufactured products – even if they cost a little more

78%

11%

29%

49%

9%

2%

12%

Governments bringing forward major infrastructure projects with greater preference for Australian materials and products

82%

7%

33%

49%

6%

1%

11%

Require major project builders to give preference to Australian companies

77%

11%

32%

45%

9%

2%

13%

Building more of our major defence requirements here in Australia

77%

8%

33%

44%

6%

2%

15%

There was very strong support for bringing forward major infrastructure projects with greater preference for Australian materials and products (82%), giving preference to Australian companies when purchasing manufactured products (78%), building more of our major defence requirements in Australia (77%) and requiring major project builders to give preference to Australian companies  (77%).

Respondents were more likely to disapprove of forcing down the Australian dollar (46%) and more direct subsidies and grants to manufacturers from taxpayers (41%).

Impact of Cutting Public Sector

Aug 28, 2012

Q. The Liberal and National Parties have said they will cut between $50 billion and $70 billion from the Commonwealth public sector if they win the next election and the Treasurer Joe Hockey has said at least 12,000 jobs will be cut.

Do you think cutting at least 12,000 jobs from the Commonwealth public sector will result in better or worse service to the people of Australia?

 

Total

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Total better service

14%

7%

25%

3%

Total worse service

53%

77%

31%

74%

Much better service

6%

1%

13%

1%

A little better service

8%

6%

12%

2%

Make no difference

23%

10%

37%

12%

A little worse service

19%

19%

19%

19%

Much worse service

34%

58%

12%

55%

Don’t know

10%

6%

8%

12%

53% thought that cutting 12,000 jobs from the Commonwealth public sector would result in worse service and 14% thought it result in better service. 23% thought it would make no difference.

Those mostly likely to think it would result in worse service were aged 18-24 (64%), Labor voters (77%), Greens voters (74%) and those on incomes under $600pw (62%). Only 31% of Liberal/National voters thought it would result in worse service.

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