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  • Jan, 2013

    , , , , , , ,

    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,895 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    2 weeks ago

    14/1/13

    Last week

    21/01/13

    This week

    29/01/13

    Liberal

    44%

    44%

    44%

    National

    4%

    4%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    48%

    48%

    48%

    Labor

    38.0%

    36%

    36%

    35%

    Greens

    11.8%

    8%

    9%

    10%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    8%

    8%

    7%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

     

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    54%

    54%

    54%

    Labor

    50.1%

    46%

    46%

    46%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

  • Jan, 2013

    , , , , ,

    Next election

    Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until later in 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?

     

    5
    Sept
    11

    5
    Dec
    11

    30
    Jan
    12

    5
    Mar
    12

    30
    Apr
    12

    Total

    29
    Jan
    13

    Vote ALP

    Vote Lib

    Vote Greens

    Should run to later in 2013

    40%

    47%

    48%

    46%

    48%

    51%

    84%

    25%

    76%

    Should hold election now

    48%

    41%

    41%

    44%

    42%

    35%

    4%

    66%

    12%

    Don’t know

    12%

    12%

    10%

    10%

    10%

    14%

    12%

    8%

    12%

    51% think the Labor Government should run its full term until later in 2013 and 35% think an election should be held now. 14% don’t know.

    Opinions have shifted away having an early election since this question was polled in April 2012.

  • Jan, 2013

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    The Australian economy

    Q. Thinking about the state of the world economy, how do you think the Australian economy has performed over the last few years compared to other countries?

     

    15 Aug 11

    7 May 12

    Total 29 Jan 13

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total better

    70%

    66%

    70%

    84%

    64%

    71%

    Total worse

    10%

    15%

    12%

    5%

    16%

    10%

    A lot better

    31%

    29%

    29%

    45%

    18%

    35%

    A little better

    39%

    37%

    41%

    39%

    46%

    36%

    About the same

    16%

    16%

    16%

    10%

    19%

    17%

    A little worse

    7%

    9%

    7%

    3%

    9%

    6%

    A lot worse

    3%

    6%

    5%

    2%

    7%

    4%

    Don’t know

    3%

    3%

    3%

    2%

    1%

    2%

    70% think that Australia’s economy has performed better than other countries over the last few years, 16% say about the same and 12% think it has been worse. This represents a shift from net +51 to net +58 since this question was previously asked in May last year.

    There were no substantial differences across demographic groups although those on lower incomes were a little more likely to believe it has performed worse – for those on income under $600pw, 56% think Australia’s economy has performed better and 20% worse.

  • Jan, 2013

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    Trust to deal with GFC

    Q. If there was another Global Financial Crisis, which party would you trust most to deal with it?

     

    15 Aug 11

    7 May 12

    Total 29 Jan 13

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    The Labor Party

    31%

    25%

    26%

    68%

    2%

    23%

    The Liberal Party

    40%

    42%

    40%

    4%

    84%

    6%

    No difference

    20%

    23%

    22%

    18%

    10%

    52%

    Don’t know

    9%

    10%

    11%

    10%

    4%

    19%

    If there was another GFC, 40% would trust the Liberal Party more to handle it and 26% would trust the Labor Party more. This represents a slight shift to the Labor Party from net -17% to net -14% since May last year.

    The Liberal Party was rated higher than Labor with all demographic groups except for low income earners – 35% of those earning under $600pw would trust the Labor Party more and 29% the Liberal Party. Those most likely to trust the Liberal Party more were aged 55+ (52%), full-time workers (45%) and income over $1,600 pw (44%).

  • Jan, 2013

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    The economy

    Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?  

     

    1 Dec
    08

    15 Jun 09

    5
    Oct
    09

    28 Jun
    10

    18 Oct
    10

    4 Apr
    11

    4
    Jul
    11

    3 Oct
    11

    26 Mar 12

    7 May
    12

    27 Aug 12

    Tot
    29 Jan
    13

    Vote ALP

    Vote Lib

    Vote Gre
    -ens

    Total better

    21%

    43%

    66%

    33%

    40%

    27%

    22%

    16%

    25%

    23%

    22%

    29%

    50%

    21%

    18%

    Total worse

    61%

    37%

    15%

    31%

    30%

    37%

    49%

    58%

    46%

    46%

    45%

    37%

    22%

    51%

    33%

    Get a lot better

    2%

    5%

    8%

    5%

    6%

    4%

    3%

    2%

    3%

    2%

    3%

    4%

    8%

    2%

    5%

    Get a little better

    19%

    38%

    58%

    28%

    34%

    23%

    19%

    14%

    22%

    21%

    19%

    25%

    42%

    19%

    13%

    Get a little worse

    45%

    28%

    11%

    23%

    20%

    27%

    31%

    41%

    31%

    31%

    30%

    28%

    18%

    37%

    25%

    Get a lot worse

    16%

    9%

    4%

    8%

    10%

    10%

    18%

    17%

    15%

    15%

    15%

    9%

    4%

    14%

    8%

    Stay much the same

    13%

    17%

    15%

    30%

    24%

    27%

    25%

    22%

    21%

    25%

    27%

    27%

    24%

    25%

    42%

    No opinion

    5%

    3%

    4%

    7%

    6%

    8%

    4%

    4%

    7%

    6%

    6%

    6%

    4%

    3%

    7%

    Confidence in the economic outlook has improved since August.  The percentage of respondents believing conditions will get better increased 7 points to 29%, while those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months dropped 8 points to 37%.  This is the most positive outlook recorded since October 2010.

    Labor voters are optimistic overall – 50% better/22% worse.  Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 51% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 21% better.

    There was little difference across demographic groups except for older respondents – of those aged 55+, 27% think conditions will get better and 48% worse.

  • Jan, 2013

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    Pay rates for younger workers

    Q. Do you think all workers aged 18-20 should receive the same rates of pay for doing the same work as those aged 21 and over or should 18-20 year-olds be paid lower rates?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Aged 18-34

    Aged 35-54

    Aged 55+

    18-20 year-olds should be paid the same rates

    52%

    57%

    48%

    54%

    55%

    52%

    49%

    18-20 year-olds should be paid lower rates

    37%

    32%

    44%

    33%

    33%

    36%

    44%

    Don’t know

    11%

    11%

    8%

    13%

    12%

    11%

    7%

    52% support adult wages for 18-21 year olds and 37% think they should be paid lower rates.  There was greater support for adult rates across all demographic groups except those aged 65+ where 48% supported lower rates compared to 46% for adult rates.

    Support among those aged 18-24 was only a little higher than the average at 59%.

    Part-time workers (59%) were more supportive of adult rates that full-time workers (47%).

  • Jan, 2013

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    Climate change

    Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

     

    Nov 09

    Dec 10

    30 May 11

    14 Jun 11

    15 Oct 12

    Total 29 Jan 13

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity

    53%

    45%

    52%

    50%

    48%

    51%

    67%

    34%

    79%

    We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate

    34%

    36%

    36%

    39%

    39%

    40%

    27%

    58%

    14%

    Don’t know

    13%

    19%

    12%

    12%

    13%

    9%

    6%

    8%

    7%

    51% agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 40% believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is little changed since this question was previously asked in October last year.

    By age groups, those aged under 35 split 62%/29% and those aged 55+ split 38%/57%. People on higher incomes were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those earning under $1,000pw split 46%/47% while those earning over $1,000pw split 56%/38%.

  • Jan, 2013

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    Carbon pricing

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

     

    7 Mar 2011

    14 June 2011

    19 Sep 2011

    21 Nov 2011

    25 Jun 2012

    2 Oct 12

    Total

    29 Jan 13

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total support

    35%

    38%

    37%

    38%

    35%

    38%

    37%

    60%

    19%

    61%

    Total oppose

    48%

    49%

    52%

    53%

    54%

    48%

    50%

    24%

    75%

    30%

    Strongly support

    9%

    13%

    14%

    14%

    14%

    12%

    11%

    21%

    3%

    23%

    Support

    26%

    25%

    23%

    24%

    21%

    26%

    26%

    39%

    16%

    38%

    Oppose

    19%

    19%

    17%

    17%

    19%

    22%

    22%

    16%

    27%

    19%

    Strongly oppose

    29%

    30%

    35%

    36%

    35%

    26%

    28%

    8%

    48%

    11%

    Don’t know

    18%

    13%

    12%

    10%

    11%

    14%

    12%

    16%

    7%

    9%

    Support for carbon pricing has not changed significantly since the last time the question was polled in October 2012. Support is down a point to 37% and opposition up 2 points to 50%.

    Looking at the results by voting intention, Labor voters (60%) and Greens voters (61%) were the most likely to support carbon pricing, whereas 75% of Coalition voters oppose it.

    Younger respondents were more likely to support carbon pricing than older respondents – for those aged under 35, 44% support and 39% oppose while 60% of those aged 55+ oppose and 35% support.

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