Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 29, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,895 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

2 weeks ago

14/1/13

Last week

21/01/13

This week

29/01/13

Liberal

44%

44%

44%

National

4%

4%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

36%

36%

35%

Greens

11.8%

8%

9%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

8%

7%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

54%

54%

Labor

50.1%

46%

46%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Next election

Jan 29, 2013

Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until later in 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?

 

5
Sept
11

5
Dec
11

30
Jan
12

5
Mar
12

30
Apr
12

Total

29
Jan
13

Vote ALP

Vote Lib

Vote Greens

Should run to later in 2013

40%

47%

48%

46%

48%

51%

84%

25%

76%

Should hold election now

48%

41%

41%

44%

42%

35%

4%

66%

12%

Don’t know

12%

12%

10%

10%

10%

14%

12%

8%

12%

51% think the Labor Government should run its full term until later in 2013 and 35% think an election should be held now. 14% don’t know.

Opinions have shifted away having an early election since this question was polled in April 2012.

The Australian economy

Jan 29, 2013

Q. Thinking about the state of the world economy, how do you think the Australian economy has performed over the last few years compared to other countries?

 

15 Aug 11

7 May 12

Total 29 Jan 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total better

70%

66%

70%

84%

64%

71%

Total worse

10%

15%

12%

5%

16%

10%

A lot better

31%

29%

29%

45%

18%

35%

A little better

39%

37%

41%

39%

46%

36%

About the same

16%

16%

16%

10%

19%

17%

A little worse

7%

9%

7%

3%

9%

6%

A lot worse

3%

6%

5%

2%

7%

4%

Don’t know

3%

3%

3%

2%

1%

2%

70% think that Australia’s economy has performed better than other countries over the last few years, 16% say about the same and 12% think it has been worse. This represents a shift from net +51 to net +58 since this question was previously asked in May last year.

There were no substantial differences across demographic groups although those on lower incomes were a little more likely to believe it has performed worse – for those on income under $600pw, 56% think Australia’s economy has performed better and 20% worse.

Trust to deal with GFC

Jan 29, 2013

Q. If there was another Global Financial Crisis, which party would you trust most to deal with it?

 

15 Aug 11

7 May 12

Total 29 Jan 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The Labor Party

31%

25%

26%

68%

2%

23%

The Liberal Party

40%

42%

40%

4%

84%

6%

No difference

20%

23%

22%

18%

10%

52%

Don’t know

9%

10%

11%

10%

4%

19%

If there was another GFC, 40% would trust the Liberal Party more to handle it and 26% would trust the Labor Party more. This represents a slight shift to the Labor Party from net -17% to net -14% since May last year.

The Liberal Party was rated higher than Labor with all demographic groups except for low income earners – 35% of those earning under $600pw would trust the Labor Party more and 29% the Liberal Party. Those most likely to trust the Liberal Party more were aged 55+ (52%), full-time workers (45%) and income over $1,600 pw (44%).

The economy

Jan 29, 2013

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?  

 

1 Dec
08

15 Jun 09

5
Oct
09

28 Jun
10

18 Oct
10

4 Apr
11

4
Jul
11

3 Oct
11

26 Mar 12

7 May
12

27 Aug 12

Tot
29 Jan
13

Vote ALP

Vote Lib

Vote Gre
-ens

Total better

21%

43%

66%

33%

40%

27%

22%

16%

25%

23%

22%

29%

50%

21%

18%

Total worse

61%

37%

15%

31%

30%

37%

49%

58%

46%

46%

45%

37%

22%

51%

33%

Get a lot better

2%

5%

8%

5%

6%

4%

3%

2%

3%

2%

3%

4%

8%

2%

5%

Get a little better

19%

38%

58%

28%

34%

23%

19%

14%

22%

21%

19%

25%

42%

19%

13%

Get a little worse

45%

28%

11%

23%

20%

27%

31%

41%

31%

31%

30%

28%

18%

37%

25%

Get a lot worse

16%

9%

4%

8%

10%

10%

18%

17%

15%

15%

15%

9%

4%

14%

8%

Stay much the same

13%

17%

15%

30%

24%

27%

25%

22%

21%

25%

27%

27%

24%

25%

42%

No opinion

5%

3%

4%

7%

6%

8%

4%

4%

7%

6%

6%

6%

4%

3%

7%

Confidence in the economic outlook has improved since August.  The percentage of respondents believing conditions will get better increased 7 points to 29%, while those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months dropped 8 points to 37%.  This is the most positive outlook recorded since October 2010.

Labor voters are optimistic overall – 50% better/22% worse.  Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 51% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 21% better.

There was little difference across demographic groups except for older respondents – of those aged 55+, 27% think conditions will get better and 48% worse.

Pay rates for younger workers

Jan 29, 2013

Q. Do you think all workers aged 18-20 should receive the same rates of pay for doing the same work as those aged 21 and over or should 18-20 year-olds be paid lower rates?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Aged 18-34

Aged 35-54

Aged 55+

18-20 year-olds should be paid the same rates

52%

57%

48%

54%

55%

52%

49%

18-20 year-olds should be paid lower rates

37%

32%

44%

33%

33%

36%

44%

Don’t know

11%

11%

8%

13%

12%

11%

7%

52% support adult wages for 18-21 year olds and 37% think they should be paid lower rates.  There was greater support for adult rates across all demographic groups except those aged 65+ where 48% supported lower rates compared to 46% for adult rates.

Support among those aged 18-24 was only a little higher than the average at 59%.

Part-time workers (59%) were more supportive of adult rates that full-time workers (47%).

Climate change

Jan 29, 2013

Q. Do you believe that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate which happens from time to time?

 

Nov 09

Dec 10

30 May 11

14 Jun 11

15 Oct 12

Total 29 Jan 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity

53%

45%

52%

50%

48%

51%

67%

34%

79%

We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate

34%

36%

36%

39%

39%

40%

27%

58%

14%

Don’t know

13%

19%

12%

12%

13%

9%

6%

8%

7%

51% agree that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity and 40% believe that we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the earth’s climate. This is little changed since this question was previously asked in October last year.

By age groups, those aged under 35 split 62%/29% and those aged 55+ split 38%/57%. People on higher incomes were more likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity – those earning under $1,000pw split 46%/47% while those earning over $1,000pw split 56%/38%.

Carbon pricing

Jan 29, 2013

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which was introduced in July 2012 and requires industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

 

7 Mar 2011

14 June 2011

19 Sep 2011

21 Nov 2011

25 Jun 2012

2 Oct 12

Total

29 Jan 13

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

35%

38%

37%

38%

35%

38%

37%

60%

19%

61%

Total oppose

48%

49%

52%

53%

54%

48%

50%

24%

75%

30%

Strongly support

9%

13%

14%

14%

14%

12%

11%

21%

3%

23%

Support

26%

25%

23%

24%

21%

26%

26%

39%

16%

38%

Oppose

19%

19%

17%

17%

19%

22%

22%

16%

27%

19%

Strongly oppose

29%

30%

35%

36%

35%

26%

28%

8%

48%

11%

Don’t know

18%

13%

12%

10%

11%

14%

12%

16%

7%

9%

Support for carbon pricing has not changed significantly since the last time the question was polled in October 2012. Support is down a point to 37% and opposition up 2 points to 50%.

Looking at the results by voting intention, Labor voters (60%) and Greens voters (61%) were the most likely to support carbon pricing, whereas 75% of Coalition voters oppose it.

Younger respondents were more likely to support carbon pricing than older respondents – for those aged under 35, 44% support and 39% oppose while 60% of those aged 55+ oppose and 35% support.

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