Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 29, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,792 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

1/10/12

2 weeks ago

15/10/12

Last week

22/10/12

This week

29/10/12

Liberal

44%

44%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

47%

47%

48%

Labor

38.0%

36%

36%

36%

36%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

8%

7%

7%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

53%

53%

53%

54%

Labor

50.1%

47%

47%

47%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Benefit of UN Security Council seat

Oct 29, 2012

Q. Last week Australia won a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Permanent seats on the UN Security Council are held by major powers such as the US, Russia and China while non-permanent seats are held by other countries for a two year period. How much of a benefit, if any, do you think there is for Australia in having a seat on the UN Security Council?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total a lot/some benefit

45%

67%

33%

61%

Total little/no benefit

36%

16%

55%

22%

A lot of benefit

14%

27%

7%

17%

Some benefit

31%

40%

26%

44%

Little benefit

20%

13%

29%

16%

No benefit

16%

3%

26%

6%

Don’t know

18%

17%

13%

17%

45% think there is a lot or some benefit in Australia having a seat on the UN Security Council and 36% think there is little or no benefit.

67% of Labor voters and 61% of Greens voters think there is a lot/some benefit but 55% of Liberal/National voters think there is little/no benefit.

Younger respondents were a little more likely to see a benefit for Australia – 50% of respondents aged 18-35 think there is a lot/some benefit compared to 40% of those aged 55+.

Exporting uranium to India

Oct 29, 2012

Q. Do you support or oppose the proposal for Australia to export uranium to India?

  21 Nov 11

Total

29 Oct 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

30%

28%

28%

36%

12%

Total oppose

45%

40%

41%

36%

67%

Strongly support

7%

6%

5%

8%

2%

Support

23%

22%

23%

28%

10%

Oppose

24%

22%

27%

19%

32%

Strongly oppose

21%

18%

14%

17%

35%

Don’t know

25%

32%

30%

29%

22%

28% support the proposal for Australia to export uranium to India and 40% oppose – 32% had no opinion. Both support and opposition have dropped a little since this question was asked last year – those who “don’t know” have increased from 25% to 32%.

Labor and Greens voters were more likely to oppose while Liberal/National voters were split 36% support/36% oppose.

All age groups were more likely to oppose the proposal although support was strongest with older people – 36% of those aged 55+ support compared to only 23% of those aged 18-34.

Men split 39% support to 36% oppose, compared to women 17% support/43% oppose.

Nuclear power plants

Oct 29, 2012

Q. Do you support or oppose Australia developing nuclear power plants for the generation of electricity?

 

27 Jan 09

20 Dec 10

21 Mar 11

21 Nov 11

Total

29 Oct 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total support

43%

43%

35%

39%

39%

36%

47%

19%

Total oppose

35%

37%

53%

45%

41%

44%

34%

69%

Strongly support

14%

16%

12%

13%

11%

9%

15%

3%

Support

29%

27%

23%

26%

28%

27%

32%

16%

Oppose

21%

21%

21%

22%

20%

22%

18%

28%

Strongly oppose

14%

16%

32%

23%

21%

22%

16%

41%

Don’t know

22%

19%

13%

16%

21%

20%

18%

11%

41% oppose Australia developing nuclear power plants for the generation of electricity and 39% support. This represents a small drop (-4%) in opposition since this question was asked last year.

Those that intend to vote Lib/Nat were more likely to support (47%) than oppose (34%) Australia developing nuclear power plants for the generation of electricity.

There was majority opposition from Greens voters (69% oppose or strongly oppose) while Labor voters were split 36% support/44% oppose.

There is a considerable difference between the attitudes of men and women towards nuclear power plants – 52% of men, compared to just 25% of women support or strongly support Australia developing nuclear power plants for the generation of electricity.

Importance of relationships with other countries

Oct 29, 2012

Q. How important is it for Australia to have a close relationship with the following nations?

 

Very important

Quite important

Not very important

Don’t know

 

Very Important 28 Mar 11  

Very Important 14 Nov 11  

Change

United States

55%

36%

5%

3%

60%

55%

New Zealand

54%

36%

7%

3%

69%

61%

-7

United Kingdom

47%

44%

6%

3%

56%

47%

China

45%

44%

6%

4%

48%

48%

-3

Indonesia

33%

43%

18%

5%

31%

27%

+6

Japan

31%

52%

12%

5%

39%

32%

-1

India

26%

45%

22%

6%

26%

23%

+3

Germany

20%

44%

29%

7%

23%

18%

+2

South Africa

14%

35%

43%

8%

16%

12%

+2

More than half the respondents think it is very important to have close relationships with the New Zealand (54%) and the United States (55%) and just under half think it is very important to have a close relationship with the China (45%) and the United Kingdom (47%).

A close relationship with the United States is considered very important by 60% of Liberal/National voters, 60% of Labor voters and 43% of Greens voters.

Since this question was asked last November, there have been decreases in the rating of the importance of relations with New Zealand (-7%) and an increase in the rating of the importance of relations with Indonesia (+6%).

Change in relationships with other countries

Oct 29, 2012

Q. Would you like to see Australia’s relationship with these countries get closer, stay the same or become less close?

 

Get closer

Stay the same

Become less close

Don’t know

 

Get closer

28 Mar 11

Get closer

14 Nov 11

Change

China

29%

50%

9%

12%

32%

35%

-6

New Zealand

26%

59%

4%

11%

37%

33%

-7

Indonesia

25%

47%

16%

12%

21%

23%

+2

India

24%

47%

15%

14%

19%

23%

+1

Japan

22%

59%

7%

13%

26%

24%

-2

United Kingdom

21%

62%

6%

10%

25%

19%

+2

United States

21%

59%

10%

10%

24%

18%

+3

Germany

18%

59%

7%

16%

18%

20%

-2

South Africa

12%

57%

14%

16%

13%

14%

-2

29% favour closer relations with China, 26% with New Zealand, 25% with Indonesia and 24% with India.

Liberal/National voters are more likely to favour closer relationships with United States (25%).

Greens voters are more likely to favour closer relationships with Indonesia (34%), Japan (34%) and India (44%),

Since this question was asked last year, the percentages wanting a closer relationship with the China (-7%) and the New Zealand (-6%) have declined.

Rating of the economy

Oct 29, 2012

Q. How would you rate the current state of Australia’s economy?

 

28 May 12

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

35%

41%

64%

27%

57%

Total poor

29%

23%

7%

38%

7%

Very good

6%

6%

9%

3%

8%

Good

29%

35%

55%

24%

49%

Neither good nor poor

33%

33%

26%

33%

34%

Poor

20%

16%

6%

26%

7%

Very poor

9%

7%

1%

12%

Don’t know

2%

4%

3%

2%

1%

41% described the economy as good or very good and 23% poor/very poor – 33% said it was neither. This is a substantial positive change from a net +6 in May to net +18.

Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were aged 18-34 (46%).

Those most likely to think the economy was poor/very poor were aged 65+ (33%) and respondents from Queensland (44%).

Approval of return to surplus

Oct 29, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s intention to return the budget to surplus this financial year, even if it means making more spending cuts?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total approve

37%

52%

31%

43%

Total disapprove

43%

32%

54%

35%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

5%

7%

Approve

32%

44%

26%

36%

Disapprove

31%

26%

38%

26%

Strongly disapprove

12%

6%

16%

9%

Don’t know

19%

17%

16%

23%

37% approve of returning the budget to surplus even if it means spending cuts and 43% disapprove.

Labor voters (52%) and Greens voters (43%) are more likely to approve but 54% Liberal/National voters disapprove. There were no substantial differences across demographics.

Sign up for updates

Receive the Essential Report in your inbox.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.