Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 5, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,903 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

8/7/13

2 weeks ago

23/7/13

Last week

29/7/13

This week

5/8/13

Liberal

 

42%

42%

41%

40%

National

4%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

46%

45%

44%

43%

Labor

38.0%

38%

39%

39%

38%

Greens

11.8%

8%

7%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

9%

8%

10%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

8/7/13

2 weeks ago

23/7/13

Last week

29/7/13

This week

5/8/13

Liberal National

49.9%

52%

51%

51%

51%

Labor

50.1%

48%

49%

49%

49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Firmness of voting intention

Aug 5, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

I will definitely not change my mind

44%

40%

59%

23%

18%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

30%

35%

25%

36%

25%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

21%

18%

14%

35%

49%

Don’t know

5%

7%

3%

3%

9%

44% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 30% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 21% say it is quite possible they will change.

Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (35%), other party and independent voters (49%), aged 18-24 (32%) and women (25%).

Party leader trust most on issues

Aug 5, 2013

Q.  Which party leader – Kevin Rudd or Tony Abbott – would you trust most to handle the following issues?

 

Kevin Rudd

Tony Abbott

No difference

Don’t know

Net difference

Difference for parties

23 Jul 13

Management of the economy

32%

35%

21%

11%

-3

-15

Ensuring a quality education for all children

41%

25%

24%

10%

+16

+9

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

37%

27%

25%

11%

+10

+1

Protecting the environment

33%

22%

31%

14%

+11

na

A fair industrial relations system

41%

28%

19%

12%

+13

+11

Political leadership

37%

32%

22%

9%

+5

-7

Addressing climate change

35%

21%

31%

13%

+14

na

Controlling interest rates

24%

32%

32%

12%

-8

-14

Australian jobs and protection of local industries

32%

30%

25%

13%

+2

-1

Ensuring a quality water supply

26%

23%

36%

15%

+3

-7

Housing affordability

26%

25%

34%

15%

+1

-2

Ensuring a fair taxation system

31%

32%

26%

11%

-1

-2

Security and the war on terrorism

25%

29%

33%

13%

-4

-15

Treatment of asylum seekers

26%

31%

32%

11%

-5

-11

Managing population growth

21%

28%

37%

15%

-7

-13

Substantially more respondents said they would trust Kevin Rudd more than Tony Abbott to handle a quality education for all children, a fair industrial relations system, addressing climate change, protecting the environment and ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system. Tony Abbott is more trusted to control interest rates and manage population growth.

When compared with a similar question about trust in the parties asked last month, Kevin Rudd rates considerably better that the Labor Party on management of the economy, political leadership and security and the war on terrorism.

Approach to handling asylum seekers

Aug 5, 2013

Q. The Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and the Opposition leader Tony Abbott have both recently made statements about the handling of asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat.

Do you think Kevin Rudd’s approach to handling asylum seekers is too harsh, too soft or about right?

Do you think Tony Abbott’s approach to handling asylum seekers is too harsh, too soft or about right?

 

Kevin Rudd

 

Tony Abbott

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Too harsh

20%

19%

18%

49%

21%

38%

5%

42%

Too soft

24%

12%

35%

13%

20%

21%

16%

21%

About right

40%

53%

33%

25%

31%

11%

61%

7%

Don’t know

16%

16%

14%

13%

27%

31%

18%

30%

40% of respondents think Kevin Rudd’s approach to handling asylum seekers is about right and 31% think Tony Abbott’s approach is about right. Views are similar for both approaches in terms of whether they are too soft or too harsh – about one in five selected each option.

Kevin Rudd’s approach was more favoured by Labor voters (53%), aged 45-64 (45%) and tradespeople (51%). Tony Abbott’s approach was more favoured by Liberal/National voters (61%), men (37%), aged 65+ (46%) and tradespeople (40%).

Voting decision

Aug 5, 2013

Q. Thinking about the Federal election to be held this year, when do you expect you will make your final decision about who you will vote for?

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party

Don’t know

I have already decided

53%

55%

69%

36%

29%

8%

During the election campaign

15%

19%

12%

24%

18%

6%

In the last week before the election

12%

11%

9%

15%

25%

7%

The day before the election

3%

4%

2%

9%

1%

2%

On the day of the election

8%

7%

4%

9%

20%

18%

Don’t know

9%

5%

4%

8%

7%

60%

53% say they have already decided who they will be voting for in the Federal election, 30% will finally make up their mind at some stage before election day and 8% will decide on election day.

Those least likely to have made up their mind were aged 18-24 (33%), Greens voters (36%), other party/independent voters (29%) and respondents with university education (48%).