Interest in Watching Leaders Debate

Jul 26, 2010

Q. On Sunday night the leaders debate between Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott will be televised. Do you plan to watch the leaders’ debate?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other or indep. Don’t know/ refused vote
Definitely watch 14% 19% 16% 12% 3% 4%
Probably watch 30% 35% 33% 31% 24% 13%
Probably won’t watch 21% 20% 23% 29% 25% 13%
Definitely won’t watch 26% 16% 25% 25% 44% 46%
Don’t know 9% 11% 4% 3% 2% 25%

44% said they would definitely or probably watch the leaders’ debate. 54% of Labor voters were likely to watch, compared to 49% of Liberal/National voters and 43% of Greens voters. Of those who could not say who they would vote for, only 17% said they would definitely or probably watch the debate.

Older respondents were more likely to watch – 52% of those aged 55+ compared to 33% of those aged under 35. Comments »

Best Leader of Liberal Party

Jul 26, 2010

Q. Do you think that if Peter Costello had stayed in Parliament, he would make a better leader of the Liberal Party than Tony Abbott?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 45% 46% 50% 64%
No 26% 32% 25% 19%
Don’t know 29% 22% 25% 17%

 45% of respondents think Peter Costello (had he stayed in parliament) would make a better leader of the Liberal Party than Tony Abbott. Preference for Peter Costello was strongest among Liberal/National voters – 50% Costello/25% Abbott. The highest level of support for Tony Abbott came from Labor voters (32%). Comments »

Approval of Tony Abbott

Jul 19, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

Malcolm Turnbull Tony Abbott
30 Nov 09 14 Dec 09 18 Jan 10 22 Feb 10 29 Mar 10 3 May 10 31 May 10 28 Jun 10 5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10
Total approve 25% 34% 37% 45% 33% 39% 35% 40% 37% 40%
Total disapprove 55% 36% 37% 36% 50% 43% 50% 39% 47% 44%
Strongly approve 2% 7% 5% 12% 8% 5% 5% 9% 8% 6%
Approve 23% 27% 32% 33% 25% 34% 30% 31% 29% 34%
Disapprove 33% 18% 20% 20% 28% 24% 28% 20% 23% 22%
Strongly disapprove 22% 18% 17% 16% 22% 19% 22% 19% 24% 22%
Don’t know 19% 31% 26% 18% 16% 18% 16% 20% 16% 16%

40% approve Tony Abbott’s performance as Opposition Leader and 44% disapprove. Since this question was asked 2 weeks ago, approval has increased by 3% and disapproval decreased by 3%. 82% of Liberal/National voters approve and 10% disapprove. Among Labor voters, 19% approve and 69% disapprove.

There were some differences by gender – men 45% approve/43% disapprove and women 35% approve/46% disapprove. Comments »

Better Prime Minister

Jul 19, 2010

 Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens   Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott

28 Jun 10

Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott

5 Jul 10

Julia Gillard 50% 91% 8% 71%   47% 49% 53%
Tony Abbott 27% 2% 70% 4%   30% 29% 26%
Don’t know 23% 7% 21% 25%   23% 22% 21%

 50% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 27% prefer Tony Abbott – a slight closing of the gap between the two (from 27% to 23%) since last polled 2 weeks ago.

 Julia Gillard is preferred 91% to 2% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 70% to 8% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 71% to 4%.

 Men prefer Julia Gillard 47%/32% and women 53%/23%. Comments »

Leaders and Australian Values

Jul 19, 2010

 Q. Do you agree or disagree that this definition of Australian values describes the political leaders Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and Bob Brown?

  Julia Gillard Tony Abbott Bob Brown
Total agree 64% 39% 36%
Total disagree 18% 40% 31%
Strongly agree 21% 7% 8%
Agree 43% 32% 28%
Disagree 12% 25% 18%
Strongly disagree 6% 15% 13%
Don’t know 17% 21% 34%

64% agreed that the definition of Australian values describes Julia Gillard, 39% Tony Abbott and 36% Bob Brown.

Among their own voters – 90% of Labor voters agreed they describe Julia Gillard, 73% of Liberal/National voters agreed they describe Tony Abbott and 72% of Greens voters agreed they describe Bob Brown.

By gender – 62% of men and 68% of women agree they describe Julia Gillard and 43% of men and 34% of women agree they describe Tony Abbott. Comments »

Liberal Party and WorkChoices

Jul 12, 2010

 Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?

  12 July 10 31 May 10
Total likely 56% 58%
Total unlikely 24% 21%
Very likely 26% 28%
Quite likely 30% 30%
Not very likely 18% 18%
Not at all likely 6% 3%
Don’t know 20% 20%

 56% think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 24% think it is unlikely. These figures have only changed slightly since this question was last asked six weeks ago.

 83% of Labor voters and 71% of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters are split 37% likely to 48% unlikely. Comments »

The angry fish that could change Australia

Jul 6, 2010

First published on The Punch 6/7/2010

There is a wildcard hanging over the upcoming election, a factor outside the control of the any politician – it resembles an angry fish, and it is looking for someone to bite.

Question: Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions  in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same? Source:  Essential Report

Question: Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same? Source: Essential Report

It is the long-term trend line on people’s economic confidence, and it shows that after we sounded a collective sigh of relief last year, we are beginning to fear the worst again, a sense of economy insecurity that can affect our work, our home lives – and the way we look at politics.

The story of the fish charts the highs and lows of first term Labor, it also offers some tantalising clues about what happens next. Why a fish? As the graph above shows, the competing stories of confidence and despondency have taken a wild journey over the past two years.  With fear surging as the GFC hit, curtailing as stimulus stabilised the economy, but now rising again.

Kevin Rudd inherited a nation fearing the worst – the US sub-prime was not just a theory – big banks collapsed, homes were lost, mass lay-offs. As the word ‘contagion’ was bandied around – it emerged that many Australian local councils had unwittingly invested in the toxic loans to bad security risks. Economists warned us of our unsustainable levels of household debt. The notion of economic carnage in Australia was real.

Comments »

Approval of Tony Abbott

Jul 5, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

Malcolm Turnbull Tony Abbott
30 Nov 09 14 Dec 09 18 Jan 10 22 Feb 10 29 Mar 10 3 May 10 31 May 10 28 Jun 10 5 Jul 10
Total approve 25% 34% 37% 45% 33% 39% 35% 40% 37%
Total disapprove 55% 36% 37% 36% 50% 43% 50% 39% 47%
Strongly approve 2% 7% 5% 12% 8% 5% 5% 9% 8%
Approve 23% 27% 32% 33% 25% 34% 30% 31% 29%
Disapprove 33% 18% 20% 20% 28% 24% 28% 20% 23%
Strongly disapprove 22% 18% 17% 16% 22% 19% 22% 19% 24%
Don’t know 19% 31% 26% 18% 16% 18% 16% 20% 16%

Tony Abbott’s net rating as Opposition Leader have dropped back into negative territory over the last week. 37% approve (down 3%) and 47% disapprove (up 8%).

81% of Liberal/National voters approve and 12% disapprove. Labor voters split 15% approve/75% disapprove.

Men split 41% approve/45% disapprove and women 34% approve/48% disapprove. Comments »

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