Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 7, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,863 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

8/10/12

2 weeks ago

22/10/12

Last week

29/10/12

This week

7/11/12

Liberal

44%

44%

44%

43%

National

3%

3%

4%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

47%

48%

46%

Labor

38.0%

37%

36%

36%

37%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

7%

7%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

53%

53%

54%

53%

Labor

50.1%

47%

47%

46%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 29, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,792 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

1/10/12

2 weeks ago

15/10/12

Last week

22/10/12

This week

29/10/12

Liberal

44%

44%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

4%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

47%

47%

48%

Labor

38.0%

36%

36%

36%

36%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

8%

7%

7%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

53%

53%

53%

54%

Labor

50.1%

47%

47%

47%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 22, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,888 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

24/9/12

2 weeks ago

8/10/12

Last week

15/10/12

This week

22/10/12

Liberal

45%

44%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

47%

47%

47%

Labor

38.0%

35%

37%

36%

36%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

7%

8%

7%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

53%

53%

53%

Labor

50.1%

45%

47%

47%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 24, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1992 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

27/08/12

2 weeks ago

10/9/2012

Last week 17/09/2012

This week

Liberal

46%

44%

45%

45%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

47%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

32%

34%

34%

35%

Greens

11.8%

10%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 27/08/12

2 weeks ago

10/9/2012

This week

17/09/2012

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

55%

55%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

45%

45%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 17, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 2,003 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

 

2 weeks ago

3/9/12

Last week

10/9/2012

This week

Liberal

46%

44%

44%

45%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

48%

47%

48%

Labor

38.0%

32%

34%

34%

34%

Greens

11.8%

10%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

 

2 weeks ago

3/9/12

Last week

10/9/2012

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

57%

55%

55%

55%

Labor

50.1%

43%

45%

45%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Decisions of the Labor Government

Sep 10, 2012

Q. Thinking about the decisions the Labor Government has made over the last few years, do you think the following decisions were good or bad for Australia?

Total good

Total bad

Very good

Good

Neither good nor bad

Bad

Very bad

Don’t know

Expanding dental health services for people on low incomes

77%

5%

33%

44%

14%

2%

3%

5%

Increasing the tax free threshold from $6,000 to $18,200

75%

4%

36%

39%

16%

3%

1%

5%

Increasing the age pension

70%

11%

30%

40%

13%

7%

4%

6%

Increasing superannuation from 9% to 12%

68%

9%

27%

41%

16%

6%

3%

6%

Protecting large areas of Australia’s marine environment in a network of marine reserves

67%

8%

28%

39%

20%

5%

3%

7%

Introducing the National Disability Insurance Scheme

58%

5%

21%

37%

23%

3%

2%

14%

Implementing the recommendations of the Gonski report to increase education funding

54%

8%

20%

34%

25%

5%

3%

13%

Stimulus spending to tackle the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)

54%

22%

22%

32%

18%

14%

8%

8%

Spending on new school buildings during the GFC

53%

22%

15%

38%

18%

12%

10%

6%

Paid parental leave

52%

20%

17%

35%

23%

12%

8%

5%

Introducing a tax on large profits of mining companies

49%

25%

24%

25%

17%

13%

12%

8%

Implementing the recommendations of the expert committee on asylum seekers including offshore processing

45%

15%

15%

30%

28%

8%

7%

12%

Building the NBN (National Broadband Network)

43%

28%

17%

26%

22%

14%

14%

7%

Abolished WorkChoices

42%

27%

23%

19%

19%

17%

10%

12%

Introducing a carbon tax to tackle climate change

28%

51%

14%

14%

15%

16%

35%

7%

The two most popular decisions of the Labor Government are ‘expanding dental health services for people on low incomes’ (77% total good) and ‘increasing the tax free threshold from $6,000 to $18,000 (75% total good).   The least popular decisions were ‘Building the NBN’ (43% total good), ‘Abolished WorkChoices’ (42% total good) and ‘introducing a carbon tax to tackle climate change’ (28% total good).

Of the fifteen decisions put to respondents, the majority of respondents believed that 10 of the 15 decisions were good for Australia.  For the remaining 5 decisions, a larger portion of respondents generally regarded the decision to be good for Australia except for ‘introducing a carbon tax to tackle climate change’, where the majority of respondents (51%) believed it to be bad for Australia.

Female respondents were more likely to endorse the dental health reforms (80% total good) compared with male respondents (74% total good).

Increasing the age pension was most strongly supported by respondents aged 65+ (77% total good).

Introducing paid parental leave was more popular with female respondents (57% total good), compared with male respondents (46% total good).  Looking at this decision by age, it was most popular amongst respondents aged 25-34 (62%) and 35-44 (62%) whereas respondents aged 65+ were the most likely to regard the decision as a bad one (36% total bad).

Implementing the recommendations of the expert committee on asylum seekers including offshore processing proved to be a very popular decision amongst respondents aged 65+ (65% total good), whereas respondents aged 25-34 were the most likely to regard it as a bad decision (43% total bad).

Female respondents were more likely to regard ‘protecting large areas of Australia’s marine environment’ as a good decision (72% total good) compared with male respondents (60% total good).

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 3, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,871 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

6/8/12

2 weeks ago

20/8/12

Last week

27/8/12

This week

3/9/12

Liberal

46%

46%

46%

44%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

49%

49%

48%

Labor

38.0%

33%

32%

32%

34%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

10%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

57%

56%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

43%

44%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Criticism of Julia Gillard

Sep 3, 2012

Q. Do you think the Prime Minister Julia Gillard has been subjected to more or less personal criticism than a male Prime Minister would be?

 

Total

Vote

Labor

Vote

Lib/Nat

Vote

Greens

Men

Women

More

51%

77%

34%

74%

42%

61%

Less

6%

3%

10%

1%

8%

4%

About the same

38%

18%

54%

19%

46%

31%

Don’t know

5%

2%

2%

6%

5%

5%

51% think that the Prime Minister Julia Gillard has been subjected to more personal criticism than a male Prime Minister would be. 38% think she has received about the same level of personal criticism and 6% think she has received less.

61% of women think Julia Gillard has received more personal criticism but 54% of men think she has received about the same or less.

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