Labor Leadership issue

Feb 27, 2012

Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Kevin Rudd

18%

27%

16%

21%

Julia Gillard

39%

28%

55%

16%

Other people in the Labor Party

23%

23%

21%

25%

The media

10%

16%

4%

25%

Don’t know

10%

7%

4%

12%

39% of respondents think that Julia Gillard is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party, 23% think other people in the Labor Party are responsible and 18% think Kevin Rudd is responsible. Only 10% think the media are mainly responsible.

A majority (55%) of Liberal/National voters think Julia Gillard is mainly responsible while Labor and Greens voters are fairly evenly divided between Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd and other people in the Labor Party. 25% of Greens voters think that the media are responsible.

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Leaders at the Next Election

Feb 13, 2012

Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party at the election due next year?

Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party at the election due next year?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Julia Gillard Yes 31% 54% 19% 43%
No 47% 22% 70% 26%
Don’t know 22% 24% 11% 31%
Tony Abbott Yes 47% 37% 67% 34%
No 25% 37% 12% 31%
Don’t know 28% 26% 21% 35%

31% think Julia Gillard will still be the leader of the Labor Party at the election due next year and 47% think she will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 54% of Labor voters think she will still be the leader.

47% think Tony Abbott will still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the election due next year and 25% think he will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 67% of Liberal/National voters think he will still be the leader.

Among non-major party voters, 36% think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party and 33% think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party.

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2012 Outlook – Political Parties

Dec 19, 2011

Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?

Total good

Dec 10

Total bad

Dec10

Total good Total bad Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
The Liberal Party 35% 18% 36% 24% 8% 28% 28% 17% 7% 12%
The Labor Party 19% 40% 16% 49% 3% 13% 23% 29% 20% 11%
The Greens 22% 29% 17% 37% 2% 15% 32% 20% 17% 13%

Respondents expect that 2012 is likely to be a relatively good year for the Liberal Party (36% good/24% bad) and a bad year for the Labor Party (16%/49%) and the Greens (17%/37%).

Among their own voters, 67% expect the Liberals to have a good year, 38% expect Labor to have a good year and 67% expect the Greens to have a good year.

Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all political parties – The Liberal Party has dropped form net +17% to net +12%, the Labor Party from -21% to -33% and the Greens from -7% to -20%.

Comparing these results with last week’s questions about 2011, respondents expect the Liberal Party to have a better year (net +12% next year this year compared to net -3% this year), the Labor Party to have a similar year (-33% next year, -37% this year) and the Greens to have a much worse year (-20% next year, +4% this year).

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Leaders in 12 Months

Dec 19, 2011

Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 26% 49% 12% 37%
No 55% 31% 76% 45%
Don’t know 19% 21% 12% 18%

Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 41% 26% 64% 29%
No 34% 53% 16% 53%
Don’t know 25% 21% 20% 18%

Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).

49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Dec 12, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

19 Jul 2010 20 Dec 2010 14 Mar 14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov 12 Dec
Total approve 52% 43% 41% 34% 28% 34% 37% 34%
Total disapprove 30% 40% 46% 54% 64% 59% 55% 54%
Strongly approve 11% 10% 7% 6% 5% 7% 8% 6%
Approve 41% 33% 34% 28% 23% 27% 29% 28%
Disapprove 17% 24% 22% 29% 28% 27% 25% 25%
Strongly disapprove 13% 16% 24% 25% 36% 32% 30% 29%
Don’t know 18% 17% 13% 13% 8% 7% 9% 11%

Julia Gillard’s approval rating has declined a little since last month. 34% (down 3%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -18 to -20 over the last 4 weeks.

73% of Labor voters approve (down 8%) and 19% disapprove (up 3%).

By gender – men 38% approve/55% disapprove, women 32% approve/53% disapprove.

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The Past Year – Political Parties

Dec 12, 2011

Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?

Total good

(Dec 10)

Total bad

(Dec 10)

Total good Total bad Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
The Greens 42% 21% 33% 29% 7% 26% 28% 15% 14% 11%
The Liberal Party 33% 27% 27% 30% 4% 23% 34% 22% 8% 9%
The Labor Party 21% 47% 16% 53% 2% 14% 22% 33% 21% 8%

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good Total bad Total good Total bad Total good Total bad Total good Total bad
The Greens 33% 29% 41% 16% 23% 45% 70% 3%
The Liberal Party 27% 30% 13% 45% 45% 16% 17% 45%
The Labor Party 16% 53% 35% 32% 7% 73% 11% 48%

Respondents were more likely to think it has been a good year for the Greens (33%) than the Liberal Party (27%) or the Labor Party (16%).

Among their own voters 70% think it has been a good year for the Greens, 45% the Liberal Party and 35% the Labor Party.

Compared to last year’s results, all parties figures have declined – The Greens net +21% to +4%, Liberals from net +6% to -3% and Labor from net -26% to -37%.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Oct 17, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

19 Jul 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June 11 July 15 Aug 12 Sept 17 Oct
Total approve 52% 43% 51% 48% 41% 37% 41% 34% 29% 35% 28% 34%
Total disapprove 30% 40% 36% 41% 46% 50% 48% 54% 62% 55% 64% 59%
Strongly approve 11% 10% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 6% 5% 7%
Approve 41% 33% 43% 39% 34% 30% 34% 28% 24% 29% 23% 27%
Disapprove 17% 24% 24% 25% 22% 25% 26% 29% 30% 24% 28% 27%
Strongly disapprove 13% 16% 12% 16% 24% 25% 22% 25% 32% 31% 36% 32%
Don’t know 18% 17% 14% 11% 13% 13% 11% 13% 9% 11% 8% 7%

After dropping last month Julia Gillard’s approval rating has improved this month. 34% (up 6%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 59% (down 5%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -36 to -25 over the last 5 weeks.

74% of Labor voters approve (up 8%) and 21% disapprove (down 5%).

By gender – men 36% approve/60% disapprove, women 32% approve/58% disapprove.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

May 9, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
31 May

2010

5 Jul 19 Jul 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May
Total approve 41% 48% 52% 46% 45% 45% 43% 43% 51% 48% 41% 37% 41%
Total disapprove 47% 27% 30% 40% 37% 37% 38% 40% 36% 41% 46% 50% 48%
Strongly approve 7% 14% 11% 13% 12% 10% 7% 10% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7%
Approve 34% 34% 41% 33% 33% 36% 36% 33% 43% 39% 34% 30% 34%
Disapprove 25% 13% 17% 24% 21% 20% 23% 24% 24% 25% 22% 25% 26%
Strongly disapprove 22% 14% 13% 16% 16% 17% 15% 16% 12% 16% 24% 25% 22%
Don’t know 12% 26% 18% 13% 19% 18% 18% 17% 14% 11% 13% 13% 11%

41% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 48% (down 2% disapprove – a change in net rating from -13 to -7 over the last 4 weeks.

86% of Labor voters approve (up 8%) and 10% disapprove (down 2%).

By gender – men 38% approve/55% disapprove, women 45% approve/41% disapprove.

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