EMC, Essential Report, peter lewis, political reporting, political research, Politics, Polling, polls, The Drum
First Published on The Drum 21/12/2010
If our politicians are feeling bloody and bruised after a torrid year of spills and thrills, spare a thought for the one group on the national stage that had a harder time of it in 2010 – the humble pollster.
This was the year when hand wringing about the malign impact of political research became a national sport; if there was a problem with politics, political research was the cause. We were to blame for the uninspiring election campaign; for the dumbing down of political reporting; for robbing the ALP of its soul.
So as a purveyor of the Dark Art I want to end the year with a plea for understanding for the minority group I am part of, stealing the catchcry of the Shooters Lobby in the 1990s to proudly declare ‘polls don’t kill people, people kill people’.
Before doing so, I will readily admit that political research can be put to poor use – running focus groups to get ‘permission’ from the electorate to pursue particular policies is to misunderstand the point of such research.
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2PP, EMC, ER, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,909
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 42% | 42% | 43% | 43% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 45% | 45% | 46% | 46% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 38% | 38% | 37% | 38% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 6% | 7% | 7% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 51% | 51% | 52% | 52% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
ALP, EMC, Essential Report, Julia Gillard, Julia Gillard approval, Labor, PM, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||||
| 31 May | 5 Jul | 19 Jul | 26 Jul | 2 Aug | 9 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 43% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 38% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 37% | 38% | 40% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 10% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 36% | 32% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 33% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 17% |
43% (no change) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 40% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +5 to +3.
85% of Labor voters approve and 7% disapprove.
By gender – men 44% approve/42% disapprove, women 41% approve/37% disapprove.
EMC, Essential Report, Liberals, Opposition leader, tony abbott, Tony Abbott approval
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan | 22 Feb | 29 Mar | 3 May | 31 May | 5 Jul | 2 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | |
| Total approve | 37% | 45% | 33% | 39% | 35% | 37% | 38% | 41% | 43% | 39% | 40% | 39% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 36% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 37% | 45% | 40% | 39% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 6% | 9% |
| Approve | 32% | 33% | 25% | 34% | 30% | 29% | 30% | 32% | 31% | 31% | 34% | 30% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 20% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 21% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 24% | 21% | 22% | 16% | 23% | 18% | 18% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 22% |
39% (down 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 39% (down 1%) disapprove – no net change from last month.
67% of Coalition voters approve and 16% disapprove.
By gender – men 44% approve/39% disapprove, women 34% approve/38% disapprove.
Better Prime Minister, EMC, Essential Report, Julia Gillard, PM, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 46% | 47% | 49% | 45% | 45% | 88% | 8% | 72% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 35% | 35% | 33% | 34% | 34% | 3% | 74% | 7% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 21% | 21% | 9% | 18% | 21% | 23% |
45% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% prefer Tony Abbott – no change last month’s figures.
Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 45%/39% and women 45%/29%.
2011, 2011 outlook, Australian economy, economy, EMC, Essential Report, family, Personal financial situation
Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following?
| Total good | Total poor | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know/Not applicable | |
| The Australian economy | 48% | 16% | 5% | 43% | 32% | 14% | 2% | 5% |
| Your personal financial situation | 39% | 20% | 7% | 32% | 38% | 14% | 6% | 3% |
| Your workplace * | 47% | 16% | 8% | 39% | 33% | 13% | 3% | 4% |
| You and your family overall | 51% | 14% | 10% | 41% | 30% | 11% | 3% | 4% |
* based on working people
Overall, respondents were optimistic that 2011 would be a good year for themselves overall (51%), the Australian economy (48%) and their workplace (47%). They tended to be a little less optimistic about their financial situation (39% good/20% bad).
When compared with last week’s questions on perceptions of 2010, these figures suggest that respondents expect 2011 to be better than 2010.
In particular, more respondents believed it would be a good year for their personal situation (28% 2010/39% 2011), the Australian economy (41%/48%) and themselves and their families overall (43%/51%).
2011, 2011 outlook, EMC, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, political parties
Q. Do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
| Total good | Total poor | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| The Liberal Party | 35% | 18% | 7% | 28% | 34% | 14% | 4% | 13% |
| The Labor Party | 19% | 40% | 4% | 15% | 29% | 29% | 11% | 12% |
| The Greens | 22% | 29% | 4% | 18% | 35% | 16% | 13% | 14% |
Respondents expect that 2011 is likely to be a good year for the Liberal Party (35% good/18% bad) and a bad year for the Labor Party (19%/40%).
Comparing these results with last week’s questions about 2010, respondents expect the Liberal Party to have a better year – 2010 33% good/27% bad compared to 2011 35%/18%.
Also, although the Greens were assessed to have had a good 2010 (42% good/21% bad) expectations are not so positive for 2011 (22%/29%).