Federal politics – voting intention

Dec 6, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,896

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 38% 42% 42% 41% 42%
National 3% 4% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 40% 46% 45% 44% 45%
Labor 37% 39% 38% 38% 38%
Greens 12% 8% 10% 11% 11%
Other/Independent 10% 7% 8% 7% 6%
2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Total Lib/Nat 48% 51% 51% 51% 51%
Labor 52% 49% 49% 49% 49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Party Attributes

Dec 6, 2010

Q. Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about Federal political parties.  Which statements do you feel fit the Labor Party/Liberal Party/Greens?

Labor Liberal Greens
Keeps its promises 10% 13% 9%
Has a good team of leaders 16% 23% 12%
Moderate 18% 23% 12%
Understands the problems facing Australia 23% 30% 19%
Looks after the interests of working people 22% 17% 8%
Too close to the big corporate and financial interests 15% 29% 3%
Extreme 6% 13% 39%
Out of touch with ordinary people 38% 37% 31%
Divided 30% 20% 10%
Will promise to do anything to win votes 50% 36% 22%
Clear about what they stand for 10% 21% 29%
Have a vision for the future 20% 23% 23%

Compared to the other two parties, Labor are thought more likely to promise to do anything to win votes (50%) and be divided (30%). Only 6% think they are extreme and 10% think they are clear about what they stand for. Key attributes among Labor voters are – understands the problems facing Australia (48%), looks after the interests of working people (44%) and have a vision for the future (41%).

The Liberal Party is more likely to understand the problems facing Australia (30%), be too close to the big corporate and financial interests (29%) and have a good team of leaders (23%). 21% think they are clear about what they stand for. Key attributes among Coalition voters are – understands the problems facing Australia (63%), has a good team of leaders (47%), have a vision for the future (46%) and clear about what they stand for (45%).

The Greens are more likely to bee seen as extreme (39%) and clear about what they stand for (29%). Key attributes among Greens voters are – understands the problems facing Australia (71%), clear about what they stand for (63%) and have a vision for the future (60%).

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Position on Climate Change

Dec 6, 2010

Q. Do you agree that there is fairly conclusive evidence that climate change is happening and caused by human activity or do you believe that the evidence is still not in and we may just be witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate which happens from time to time?ear

Dec 10 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Nov 09
Climate change is happening and is caused by human activity 45% 53% 32% 76% 53%
We are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate 36% 27% 53% 14% 34%
Don’t know 19% 20% 15% 10% 13%

45% believe that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity (down 8% since last surveyed in Nov 2009), 36% think we are just witnessing a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate (up 2%) and 19% don’t know (up 6%).

Those most likely to think climate change is happening and is caused by human activity were Greens voters (76%), Labor voters (53%), women (49%) and aged 18-35 (50%).

Those most likely to think it is a normal fluctuation in the Earth’s climate were Liberal/National voters (53%), aged 55+ (47%) and men (40%).

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Importance of Climate Change Issue

Dec 6, 2010

Q. Compared to other issues that are often raised in politics – like the economy, healthcare, immigration, etc –  how important to you personally is the issue of tackling climate change?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total important 61% 73% 50% 87%
Total not important 35% 25% 47% 12%
Very important 24% 31% 15% 55%
Quite important 37% 42% 35% 32%
Not so important 26% 18% 35% 11%
Not at all important 9% 7% 12% 1%
Don’t know 4% 3% 3%

61% think tackling climate change is a very important (24%) or quite important (37%) issue – 35% think it is not important. 73% of Labor voters and 87% of Greens voters think it is important while Liberal/National voters are split (50% important/47% not important).

Those most likely to think it is important were women (65%) and aged 18-35 (68%).

Of those who believe that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity, 47% think it is a very important issue and 46% a quite important issue.

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Party Best at Dealing with Climate Change Issue

Dec 6, 2010

Q. Which leader and party would you trust most to understand and deal with the climate change issue?

Dec 10 Dec 09 *
Julia Gillard and Labor 23% 24%
Tony Abbott and the Coalition 29% 27%
Bob Brown and Greens 19% 17%
Don’t know 29% 32%

* Note : Similar but not identical question asked in 2009.

29% trust Tony Abbott and the Coalition most to understand and deal with the climate change issue, 23% trust Julia Gillard and Labor and 19% trust Bob Brown and the Greens.

These figures are little changed since this question was previously asked in December 2009.

58% of Labor voters trust Labor most, 65% of Coalition voters trust the Liberals and 83% of Greens voters trust the Greens.

Of those who believe that climate change is happening and is caused by human activity, 31% trust the Greens, 27% Labor and 15% the Liberals.

Of those who believe that climate change is a very important issue, 38% trust the Greens, 31% Labor and 10% the Liberals.

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The NBN and the Spirit of Christmas

Nov 30, 2010

First Published on The Drum 30/11/2010

The magic of Christmas lies in the expectation. You hang out the stocking, leave a piece of cake and a stubbie for Santa and head off to bed.

When you wake up, there it is laid out for you, something shiny and new that you really, really wanted.

In this spirit it should come as no surprise that the Federal Parliament’s final act of the year was the passage of legislation enabling the rollout of the National Broadband Network, the embodiment of Labor’s hope that something better lies around the corner.

And there are grounds for optimism. In an era of cynicism with nearly every aspect of politics – and despite a concerted Opposition attack – this week’s Essential Report shows strong and increasing support for the network.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Nov 29, 2010

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,858

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 39% 41% 42% 42% 41%
National 2% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 41% 44% 45% 45% 44%
Labor 39% 41% 39% 38% 38%
Greens 9% 8% 10% 10% 11%
Other/Independent 10% 7% 7% 8% 7%
2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Total Lib/Nat 49% 50% 51% 51% 51%
Labor 51% 50% 49% 49% 49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Same Sex Marriage

Nov 29, 2010

Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Should be allowed to marry 50% 60% 38% 82%
Should not be allowed to marry 37% 28% 50% 13%
Don’t know 13% 12% 12% 4%

50% think people of the same sex be allowed to marry and 37% think they should not be allowed to marry.

Strongest support for same sex marriage is shown by Greens voters (82%), Labor voters (60%), females (63%) and those aged 25-44 (61%).

50% of Coalition voters and 68% of those aged 65+ oppose same sex marriage.

By religion, Catholics (58%) and those with no religion (63%) are more likely to support same sex marriage. Anglicans are divided (47% support, 43% oppose) and other Christians are strongly opposed (68%).

Of those who think the issue is important, 60% think same sex marriage should be allowed and 37% think it should not be allowed.

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